Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 16 winners against the spread

The longest AFC streak of consecutive divisional championships fell last week when the Kansas City Chiefs were officially eliminated from contention, and the playoffs, with a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as closing 6-point favorites.

The NFC’s equivalent could take the first step in meeting an identical fate in Week 16. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South in four consecutive seasons and looked like a shoo-in to make it a half-decade straight as recently as a few weeks ago.

But Tampa Bay is now tied with Carolina for the divisional lead with both teams sitting at 7-7 straight-up heading into their first meeting this year with the latter hosting the former.

The betting market refused to ever lower its expectations too far on the Chiefs this season as they looked for a 10^th straight AFC West title, and the same might be repeating with the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay is still as high as a -400 (i.e. risking $400 to win $100) to win the NFC South with Carolina coming back at as low as +330 (i.e. risking $100 to win $330) despite losing five of its last six games.

The Buccaneers are also 3-point favorites at the Panthers this week before a Week 18 rematch at home where they project to lay a touchdown.  

Tampa Bay has won five straight in the series, and nine of 10 this decade, with the last loss dating back to Tom Brady’s second season with the franchise. Brady’s first season, when Tampa Bay ultimately won Super Bowl 55, was ironically the last time Tampa Bay failed to win the NFC South as New Orleans took the crown that season.

The Buccaneers got as high as a -1200 favorite to win the NFC South this year with a midseason two-game lead, but now risk joining the Chiefs as recent playoff staples slipping from the bracket this season.

Read below to find my handicap on the Panthers at Buccaneers point spread as part of the Week 16 picks on every game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 119-96-9 after a 7-9 record last week.

Plays (40-37-4)

Detroit Lions -7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Detroit has lost three of its last five but all the defeats have come by a touchdown or less to the class teams of the NFC in Philadelphia, Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions’ offense remains one of the most explosive in the NFL and should find plenty of openings against a middling Steelers’ defense playing without its best player, T.J. Watt.  

 Dallas Cowboys -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles coach Jim Harbaugh has done a masterful job keeping the Chargers intact despite a decimated-by-injury offensive line that has the unit ranked dead-last in the league by Pro Football Focus. But his magic won’t work forever, and the Cowboys have a powerful enough defensive line — albeit with major problems behind them — to make sure the Chargers can’t keep up with their own weekly high-level offensive success.   

Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending knee injury is merely the headliner as the Chiefs are severely beaten-up all over the roster — most notably on the offensive line — and now won’t be incentivized to push veterans to play through the bumps and bruises. This wouldn’t be a play at +3, but a couple books misguidedly added an extra half point.

Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 at Washington Commanders Philadelphia’s offense has consistently overwhelmed Washington’s defense, averaging more than 37 points in the last five meetings dating back to the 2023 season. And the Commanders’ defense might be worse than ever now, having slipped to No. 29 in the NFL by expected points added (EPA) per play.

Leans (41-29-4)

Denver Broncos -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Denver edges out Jacksonville on both offense — No. 12 in the NFL to No. 14 — and defense — No. 5 in the NFL to No. 7 — by the DVOA rankings. The Broncos should therefore be on the other side of a field goal favorite at home.   

Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers This would have been an easy play on Green Bay as recently as two weeks ago, but it may have hit the point of no return with injuries in last week’s 34-26 loss at the Broncos as 1-point favorites. Adding edge rusher Micah Parsons and wide receiver Christian Watson on top of an exhaustive injury list could be too much to overcome.    

New York Giants +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings These teams have too much variance — especially on offense with a pair of up-and-down first-year starting quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart and JJ McCarthy, respectively — for either side to be laying a touchdown on the road. The Giants might be slightly undervalued by virtue of going 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season.

Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay is the slightly better team, but the opening line some sports books posted of -1.5 better reflected that reality. The torrent of action on a Buccaneers’ team that has lost six straight games against the spread and might have a disconnect between the coaching staff and players is curious.   

Seattle Seahawks +1 vs. Los Angeles Rams Seattle outgained Los Angeles by 165 yards on the road in Week 11 despite a 21-19 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. The Seahawks also had a game-winning field goal attempt as time expired despite a -3 turnover margin. They’ve fallen off a bit since then — especially offensively — but this could be a buy-low spot in rainy and windy weather better-suited for the home team’s style.

Guesses (38-30-1)

New Orleans Saints -4 vs. New York Jets The Saints’ 20-17 comeback victory over the Panthers as 2.5-point underdogs last week might have looked lucky with three scores in the final five minutes, but the underlying statistics paint it as deserved. They’ve quietly gotten better in almost every area while the Jets have plummeted.   

Miami Dolphins +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals This line jumped four points — albeit through insignificant numbers including zero — after the Dolphins’ 28-15 Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers as 3.5-point underdogs. It was a bad performance but not any worse than the Bengals’ own 24-0 loss hosting the Ravens as 3-point underdogs the day before.    

 Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. New England Patriots Baltimore hasn’t been perfect but it’s shown flashes of looking like it’s in vintage, dominant form including outgaining Cincinnati by 3.7 net yards per play last week. Unfortunately, this number has shifted into more appropriate territory after opening as low as Baltimore -1.5.  

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals Arizona ranks first in games lost to injury this season, and can no longer field a competitive team as evidenced by six straight losses. Atlanta, on the other hand, should be getting healthier including the expected return of wide receiver Drake London.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts The spectacle of watching 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers return to the NFL at the Seahawks and the 18-16 final score obscured the fact that the experiment was a failure for the Colts. An average of 4.44 yards per pass attempt and no semblance of a downfield attack isn’t going to cut it against a rested 49ers’ side riding a streak of four straight double-digit victories.    

Cleveland Browns +10.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Most sports books sit at Buffalo -10, which should be the fair price. Getting more than double digits is just enough to reluctantly count on the Browns keeping it close behind a defense that ranks No. 3 in EPA per play.  

Houston Texans -14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Texans’ offense is limited enough that they probably shouldn’t lay two touchdowns to any NFL team. But the Raiders may not qualify as NFL caliber at the moment with their widespread dysfunction and apparent disinterest.