Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

Through two weeks of the season, not a single underdog of four or more points has pulled off an outright upset.

Sides favored by more than 3.5 points improved to 11-0 straight-up, 7-3-1 against the spread in Week 2. The chalky start to the season has benefitted those in the sports books who gravitate towards playing moneyline parlays tying all the best teams together.

It’s also represented a 180 from this time a year ago. A historic rash of upsets to start the 2024 season had everyone perplexed.

A record 77% of the field in the $1,000 buy-in Circa Survivor contest, which asks contestants to pick one straight-up winner per week, had already perished after two weeks. The rate swelled to 95.5% after Week 3.

This year, more than 90% of entrants are still alive. That breaks the previous record of 77% in 2021, largely thanks to the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys which barely held off the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, respectively, in Week 2.

The disparate tales of the start of the last two seasons should be a reminder that everything is cyclical. It’s unwise to overreact to a small sample of games because randomness usually explains it better than making sweeping generalizations about the state of the league.

I’m hoping not much changes quite yet though. Out of the seven teams favored by at least four points this weekend, I’m picking five of them to cover against the spread.

Read below for those handicaps along with the rest on the schedule. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. The overall record for the season is off to a decent start at 17-13-2.

Plays (8-6)

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 vs. Houston Texans Having Jacksonville as this short of a favorite gives too much credence to what Houston has done over the past couple seasons in winning the AFC South. The Texans are much worse this year with a continually declining offensive line and a dearth of weapons.

Denver Broncos +3 at Los Angeles Chargers Buy low on the Broncos, which were sluggish in Week 1 and then only lost via a leverage penalty last week at the Colts. The Chargers notoriously have the weakest home-field advantage in the NFL, and are playing in this game on a short week without defensive leader Khalil Mack. A full field goal spread is too much.

Miami Dolphins +12.5 at Buffalo Bills The Bills navigated their defensive injuries well in a 30-10 blowout win over the Jets as 6-point favorites, but there’s no guarantee they can do it again five days later against a more explosive offense. Five Buffalo defensive starters are still on the injury report, which is problematic going against Miami side that got back some of its mojo by averaging just short of 7 yards per play against New England in Week 2.

New England Patriots +1.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Neither the Patriots nor the Steelers have been all that impressive in 1-1 straight-up starts but, if anything, the former has outplayed the latter. New England is averaging -1.2 net yards per play to Pittsburgh’s -1.5 net yards per play. They shouldn’t be an underdog in an evenly matched game at home.

Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions The Ravens have picked up where they left off at the end of last season and still grade out as historically dominant from an analytical perspective. That makes them worth betting whenever it’s reasonable. This situation certainly looks reasonable considering the damage they wreaked and matchup problems they posed for the Lions the last time the two teams met, a 38-6 Ravens’ win as 3-point favorites in Week 7 of the 2023 season.

Leans (5-4-1)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Minnesota Vikings This line was Minnesota -1.5 before Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered turf toe and underwent surgery that will sideline him for at least three months, but there are a couple reasons why the move upwards is too strong. For one, Cincinnati’s offense has played at a high level in the past under backup quarterback Jake Browning. Minnesota will also be playing with a backup too, and it’s more unclear how much changes going from J.J. McCarthy to Carson Wentz.

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams Philadelphia hasn’t shown much on offense in its last six quarters of play, but that might largely be because the situation hasn’t required it. The Eagles should still be capable of doing something other than pounding the ball forward, and this might be a good place to restart against a team like the Rams playing in a second straight road game with a suspect secondary.

Carolina Panthers +6 vs. Atlanta Falcons With such a run-centric attack and the lack of a downfield passing game, the Falcons aren’t bound to run away and blow out many opponents all season. The Panthers are much worse personnel wise, but played well in the second half to nearly pull off an improbable comeback win over the Cardinals. Maybe they found something they can carry over to this game.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at Chicago Bears The Cowboys at least have a productive offense, as the unit is sitting fourth in the NFL by the DVOA ratings through two weeks with top 10 passing and rushing attacks. The Bears have done nothing above average as a longer rebuilding project than expected might be ahead of new coach Ben Johnson.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at Washington Commanders This spread has moved 2.5 points with news of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels being unlikely to play with injury, but that’s probably not enough. Almost all of Washington’s alpha comes from somehow-still-underrated Daniels, and it might be one of the worst teams in the NFL without him.

Guesses (4-3-1)

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Tennessee Titans Brian Callahan may go down as one of the worst head-coach hirings in recent history as the Titans make glaring strategic mistakes and look relatively unprepared on a weekly basis. Their roster isn’t all that bad, but it’s hard to muster up the confidence to back them. Laying three points requires paying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) at a couple sportsbooks where available but it’s worth it to avoid the extra half-point hook.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 at New York Giants Even an outspoken skeptic of the Chiefs coming into the season like myself can see their obituaries are now starting to be penned a little prematurely. Kansas City is 0-2 straight-up and against the spread but it’s quite possible it faced two of the best teams in the league in Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers. This feels like a much-needed get-right spot for two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes against a vulnerable Giants’ pass defense.

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Sitting at sixth in the early-season preliminary DVOA rankings, Seattle might be the most underrated team in the NFL. This number looks right, but it’s easier to side with the Seahawks in coin-flip games given their above-average home-field advantage at Lumen Field.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 at Cleveland Browns Green Bay’s defense has stifled two of the better offenses in the NFL to start the season in Detroit and Washington. A Joe Flacco-led Browns unit should be easygoing for Micah Parsons and crew by comparison. For a better way to play on the Packers, tease them to down a 1.5-point favorite paired with the Seahawks also at -1.5 at sportsbooks with teaser odds of -125 (i.e. risking of $125 to win $100) or better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 vs. New York Jets Tyrod Taylor, who will start in place of the injured Justin Fields for the Jets, was a worthy backup for a long time but it’s fair to wonder how much he has left in his 15^th NFL season. New York got gashed on the ground in a loss to the Bills last week, and Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving looks like one of the best running backs in the league so far.

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Somewhat as expected, San Francisco backup quarterback Mac Jones didn’t look like a significant downgrade in a 26-21 win over the Saints as 3-point favorites last week. The 49ers, despite being more beaten up than any team in the league, offer a better baseline of stability than the Cardinals. Arizona has been schizophrenic in building big leads but then nearly blowing them against quite possibly the two worst teams in the league in the Panthers and Saints.