Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 5 winners against the spread

Last week’s pick’em fell a blocked field goal short of posting the best record in the 12-year history of this column.

I’ll have to settle for merely one of the best weeks ever with a 12-4 against the spread record after the Raiders’ misfortunes continued in an all-new way. Las Vegas curiously seemed content to not gain any more yards and set up for a 54-yard, game-winning field goal attempt from Daniel Carlson trailing Chicago by one point with time expiring at Allegiant Stadium.

It then failed to alter the path of Bears cornerback Josh Blackwell, who came off the edge and got a hand on the ball. Chicago won 25-24 in a pick’em game where it was largely dominated, getting outgained 6.9 to 4.2 yards per play, aside from frequent self-inflicted Las Vegas mistakes.

Losing a bet on the Raiders might have felt like a bad beat, but it’s not worth complaining about. Plenty of other breaks have gone the other way during a hot handicapping start to the season.

It was just a week ago that a blocked kick brought a much more miraculous cover in the Eagles’ comeback win over the Rams. Even in Week 4, other games brought borderline undeserved good fortune.

The Rams, for instance, beat the Colts and covered the 3.5-point spread on an 88-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to Tutu Atwell in the final two minutes to make the final score 27-20. Los Angeles hadn’t been beating the point spread at any other point of the game and Indianapolis lost a touchdown when receiver AD Mitchell dropped a ball going into the end zone at the 1-yard line.

In a betting market as efficient as the NFL, such endgame decisions will present themselves every week and could flip either way. It’s a prerequisite to get used to them, and battle through.

The search for a 13-3 against the spread record, or better, goes on for another week.

Read below for picks on every Week 5 point spread. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 36-25-3.

Plays (14-10-1)

Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Seahawks have quietly been one of the most well rounded and dominant teams in the league, ranking first in both defense and special teams by the DAVE metric, which combines the early season DVOA ratings with pre-season expectations. The offense isn’t far behind at No. 6 overall by the DAVE. Take a discount to back them at home while available because it won’t be much longer.

New York Jets +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys The Jets’ offense has been right around league average when quarterback Justin Fields is healthy including on Monday night when it racked up 7.1 yards per play against the Dolphins. New York probably deserved a better result than its 27-21 loss as 2-point underdogs. Dallas has already shown a tendency to play down this season, failing to cover against both the New York Giants and an outright loss to the Bears.

New England Patriots +8.5 at Buffalo Bills The Patriots’ defense has been mediocre at best so far, but new coach Mike Vrabel’s physical, dominate-the-line philosophy should pose a challenge for the Bills’ run-heavy style behind a beaten-up offensive line. Offensively, New England quarterback Drake Maye is on an ascent with an average of more than 10 yards per pass attempt in the team’s last two wins. Back him before everyone catches on him to how well he’s playing.

Arizona Cardinals -7 vs. Tennessee Titans Tennessee hasn’t lost a game by fewer than seven points since a 10-6 defeat to the Jaguars in Week 14 of last season. They’ve also only covered this number five times in 21 total tries under the calamitous tenure of coach Brian Callahan. Nothing should change against an Arizona team that should be healthier with extra rest coming off a Thursday Night Football appearance.

Leans (11-8-1)

Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders As if they don’t have enough struggles to address with their overall underperformance, the Raiders will likely be without their only offensive lineman who’s played consistently well, Kolton Miller, and their only cornerback who’s played consistently well, Eric Stokes. The Colts arguably outplayed the Rams last week and are a moment or two away from being undefeated and even more the talk of the league.

Miami Dolphins pick’em at Carolina Panthers Carolina’s defense rates dead last in the league by DAVE. Miami’s offense should decline with star receiver Tyreek Hill lost for the season with a gruesome knee injury, but coach Mike McDaniel remains a shrewd enough strategist to find some of the numerous holes present in this week’s opponent.

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Cleveland Browns in London This line didn’t budge when news broke of Cleveland turning to rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Previous starter Joe Flacco hasn’t exactly been valuable — he’s second-to-last in the NFL in QBR behind Cam Ward — but a move to a third-round drafted rookie against an aggressive defense should represent a small downgrade.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City has been net neutral on the season in both gaining and giving up 5.3 yards per play, ranking below average in the category on both offense and defense. Hold off on declaring the Chiefs back to being Super Bowl-ready off a win over the lowly Giants and the weakened-by-injury Ravens.

Washington Commanders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers Right when it seemed like the Chargers’ offensive line had shaken off some early growing pains borne out of losing Rashawn Slater in the preseason, fellow standout/replacement left tackle Joe Alt went down with an ankle injury last week. The injury didn’t cause any shift on this betting line, but it should have. Los Angeles is built through the offensive line, and the unit is now a major question.

Guesses (11-7-1)

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 vs. Houston Texans The early line on this game was Baltimore -9.5 before losing the likes of quarterback Lamar Jackson, cornerback Marlon Humphrey and linebacker Roquan Smith in the latest round of its ongoing injury onslaught. Those are massive absences, but are they two touchdowns’ worth of losses? Arguably not against an uninspiring Houston side.

New Orleans Saints -2 vs. New York Giants The Saints were an easy click in sports betting apps early in the week when they were a 2-point underdog, but the spread has since moved into more appropriate territory. Still, the home side is preferable in a game between two of the worst teams in the NFL that haven’t done anything to differentiate themselves from one another.

Cincinnati Bengals +10.5 vs. Detroit Lions Buying low must inherently feel uncomfortable. There doesn’t appear to be much hope for the Bengals, but there’s nowhere further to fall after they utterly struggled to move the ball in a 28-3 Monday Night Football loss at Denver as 7.5-point underdogs. They have some of the best weapons in the NFL, and a desperation to figure out how to use them to snap a two-game losing streak could pay off.

San Francisco 49ers +8.5 at Los Angeles Rams The 49ers’ list of injuries is substantial and devastating, but the impact of all the ailments is more than priced into the line at this point considering the Rams opened as low as a 3-point favorite. There’s already evidence of San Francisco holding it together with backup quarterback Mac Jones — a pair of wins in Week 2 and Week 3 — with Brock Purdy unable to go and the short week ahead of Thursday Night Football is less of a concern facing a familiar divisional opponent.

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs. Denver Broncos Denver would have been the clear choice at the opening spread of -5.5, but a two-point shrinking in reaction to its 28-3 victory over Cincinnati as 7.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football is aggressive. Philadelphia’s offense might look broken, sitting 30^th in the NFL at 4.2 yards per play, but it’s still got a much higher ceiling than Cincinnati’s moribund unit led by quarterback Jake Browning.