Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 6 winners against the spread

New York Jets’ future bettors have already gotten paid out.

More specifically, those who bet against the New York Jets in at least one future market have already gotten paid out.

New coach Aaron Glenn’s squad has cashed as the last winless team at odds of 12-to-1 after losing to the Dallas Cowboys 37-22 as closing 1-point underdogs last week. Hours later, the Tennessee Titans came back under crazy circumstances to beat the Arizona Cardinals 22-21 as 7.5-point underdogs to clinch the dishonor for the Jets.

The “last unbeaten” future market was also settled in Week 5 with the favorite coming through. The Buffalo Bills lost to the New England Patriots 23-20 as 7.5-point favorites in the Sunday night game but had already wrapped up the victory.

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles were the only other undefeated team left, but they fell 21-17 to the Denver Broncos earlier in the day.

Some sportsbooks may rule it a dead heat — cashing both Eagles’ and Bills’ last unbeaten tickets at a lesser payout since they lost on the same day — but others strictly list the time of the first loss mattering. Check house rules in the case of any confusion.

The fact that the Jets are the only team left in the NFL with a zero in either the win or loss column speaks to how exciting this NFL season is shaping up. There’s a lot of parity to make it extra exciting, if not tricky, to handicap on a weekly basis.

Read below for picks on every Week 6 game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 43-32-3.

Plays (15-13-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs. Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh’s defense has been a letdown so far this season, but no unit captained by T.J. Watt should stay near the bottom of the league for long. This might be the ideal spot to show some progress coming off a bye week up against a team traveling home from overseas and starting a rookie quarterback in Dillon Gabriel.

Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The Panthers sit 22^nd in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play; the Cowboys are 24^th. Dallas has faced a tougher schedule and hasn’t fallen into the same favorable, frequent playing-from-behind game state of Carolina, but those factors aren’t enough to justify this high of a line. This game looks more like a pick’em.

Washington Commanders -4.5 vs. Chicago Bears The Commanders’ defense has been much more respectable this year, rating 10^th in the NFL by the DVOA ratings, and the offense has been among the league’s best whenever quarterback Jayden Daniels is healthy. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is trending up, but he has a long way to go to justify being taken ahead of Daniels at the top of last year’s NFL Draft.

New York Jets +7.5 vs. Denver Broncos in London The Jets are closer to a 2-3 team than an 0-5 team. They have banked 1.8 estimated wins on a per-play efficiency basis per DVOA. Costly mistakes at inopportune times have befallen them in almost every game but, as much fun as it is ridicule teams for those mishaps, they’re typically not predictive going forward. New York is a bet-on team for now as it should pick up its first win in no time with slightly better luck.

Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville seems to have gotten every lucky bounce this season with a NFL-best +8 turnover margin and a 75% fumble recovery percentage. Seattle has been far better from an efficiency standpoint — sitting second in the non-opponent and priors adjusted DVOA ratings to Jacksonville’s 12^th — and deserves to be the small favorite here.

Detroit Lions +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs It might be close but shouldn’t really be debatable: The Lions are the best team in the NFL right now. This line implies that the offensively limited, defensively mediocre Chiefs are better than them with homefield advantage generally worth a little less than 2 points over the last season-plus of data. That’s a hard sell, especially in this situation with the Chiefs playing on a short week off "Monday Night Football."

Leans (15-9-1)

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Indianapolis Colts This number was Indianapolis -4.5 going into last week. Despite the divergent results of the Cardinals’ collapse paired with the Colts crushing the Raiders in a 40-6 win as 7-point favorites, the line move is too much. Arizona outplayed Tennessee throughout the majority of the game, while Las Vegas was lifeless against Indianapolis.

Miami Dolphins +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Not to get too repetitive after spewing a similar reason for betting against the Chargers ahead of last week’s 27-10 loss to the Commanders as 3-point favorites, but coach Jim Harbaugh’s team was built through the offensive line. Now they don’t have a functional one with the injuries piling up. Until Los Angeles fixes that problem, it can’t be bet on.

Tennessee Titans +5 at Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders’ Geno Smith is rivaling Titans rookie counterpart Cam Ward as the worst quarterback in the league as they’re the bottom two full-time starters by QBR through five games. Las Vegas also has the second-worst offensive line in the league, ahead of only Houston by Pro Football Focus. The Raiders have looked too terrible to lay this high of a number against any team in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals +14.5 at Green Bay Packers It still feels a bit early in the season for any team to be laying more than two touchdowns on the point spread, let alone a Packers’ side that’s shown some cracks and failed to either win or cover in their last two games. Green Bay’s offense hasn’t played particularly fast or been especially explosive, two more detriments to giving this many points.

Baltimore Ravens +7.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The Rams could name their score if the Ravens are missing virtually all of their best players like in last week’s 44-10 loss to the Texans as 1.5-point underdogs, but coach John Harbaugh says some of them will return. Los Angeles might be getting too much respect in the market as it’s priced like an elite team but belongs solidly in the second tier.

Guesses (13-10-1)

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills I’m not rushing to bet against reigning Most Valuable Player Josh Allen and the Bills off their first loss, but this line feels ever-so-slightly too high. The Falcons are coming off a bye, and their defense, ranking first in the league by DVOA, has been one of the big revelations of the first five weeks of the season.

New York Giants +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles sit 29^th in the NFL in averaging 4.4 yards per play. Their offense simply isn’t playing well enough to lay more than a touchdown to any opponent, let alone a divisional one on the road.

New England Patriots -3.5 at New Orleans Saints Quarterback Drake Maye, coach Mike Vrabel & Co. don’t look like one-hit wonders after knocking off the Bills. With everything coming together, the young team appears to be a bona fide playoff contender and a dark-horse threat to win the AFC East. The Saints shouldn’t offer much resistance to the Patriots continuing their upward trajectory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers There’s not much indication that the 49ers’ injury situation, which rivals the Ravens’ as the worst in the league, is going to improve much this week. That’s accounted for in this point spread, which looks exact right, but there’s a chance the bottom could fall out with San Francisco starting so many second-string and practice-squad players.