Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread

The pick’em column debuted this year with a call to fade the Kansas City Chiefs, and has stuck close to the mission statement by picking against them in six of eight games so far.

The strategy felt genius at first as Kansas City stumbled its way to 2-3 straight-up and against the spread records where I picked all five of its games correctly.

It was fun while it lasted.

I’ve remained stubborn on the Chiefs by picking against them the last three weeks, and it’s finally backfired.

They’ve won and covered in all three games, including a 28-7 stifling of Washington as 10.5-point favorites on "Monday Night Football" in Week 8, to get back to their usual spot at the top of NFL betting boards around town.

Kansas City is now the consensus futures favorite. The Chiefs are as short as 4-to-1 to win a fourth Super Bowl with coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes and as low as +225 (i.e. risking $100 to win $225) to get there for a sixth time under the duo.

The discrepancy between the two prices — most of the time, the odds to win the conference would be exactly half of the overall championship — can be attributed to Kansas City’s slow start putting it at a disadvantage of earning the No. 1 seed.

The Chiefs are a +425 third choice to earn a bye in the AFC at Caesars/William Hill, but they could chop those odds down in a major way this weekend when they visit the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills are currently the +385 second choice, behind only the Indianapolis Colts at +130.  

Bills versus Chiefs showdowns have annually become one of the biggest games of the season, and this year is no different. It will spur major betting activity in Las Vegas in a number of markets, but it’s always wise to start with the point spread.    

Find my handicap on Chiefs at Bills below along with picks on the other 13 games as part of Week 9. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 69-49-3 after a 9-4 record last week.

Plays (26-20-1)

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 at New England Patriots Atlanta sits third in the NFL in variance by the DVOA ratings, meaning it has large gaps in performance on a week-to-week basis. The Falcons can look like a contender one week — take a 24-14 Week 7 win over the Bills as 4-point favorites — and then a joke shortly after — like in last week’s 34-10 loss to the Dolphins as 7.5-point favorites. The inconsistent quality isn’t a detriment when a team is an underdog; in fact, it can be an asset hoping to catch them on the right day.

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Chicago Bears Yes, the Bengals melted down in last week’s 39-38 loss to the Jets as 6-point favorites but they led by two scores for the majority of the game including midway through the fourth quarter. If they held on, this spread would be flipped. There’s not enough difference between these teams for either to be a home underdog.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Few teams needed a bye week worse than the Raiders with the time off likely allowing for the returns of tight end Brock Bowers and edge rusher Maxx Crosby. Jacksonville is coming off a bye too but it’s been declining as sharply as Las Vegas in recent weeks and has racked up more air miles than any other team. This will be the Jaguars’ second trip West, this one directly following a game against the Rams in London.        

Detroit Lions -8.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Lions should be getting some defensive reinforcements back out of a bye week. That doesn’t bode well for Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy, who’s coming back from an ankle injury and might represent a downgrade, if anything, from fill-in Carson Wentz given his inexperience with only two professional starts.

Buffalo Bills +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Oh no, here I go again with the Chiefs doubt. But the reality is, Kansas City can both be the best team in the AFC and undeserving of being a favorite at Buffalo. The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the teams’ last four regular-season meetings, and would have been more than a field goal favorite in this matchup a month ago.  

Leans (23-15-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts This number is teetering on touching 3.5 at some sports books and, if it gets there, the Steelers might upgrade to a play. The Colts have done enough to prove they're legitimate contenders regardless, but they’ve faced arguably the weakest schedule in the league and are now rated as a top-five team in the NFL by the betting market — slightly too high.  

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Few teams have been more underwhelming than the Cardinals, which sit at -0.3 net yards per play on the season with a poor offense and a middling defense. That makes the flood of money to come in on them to drop this spread from high as Cowboys -3.5 at open curious. It may have created slight value on the home side.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 at Miami Dolphins Why not further bury myself with more Chiefs’ slander? I rate returning Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, not Mahomes, as the most valuable player in the NFL from a point-spread perspective. That’s why last week’s injury-report debacle created such controversy, and why the Ravens are set to bury the Dolphins on "Thursday Night Football."

San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at New York Giants Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart must really live up to his odds-on favorite status as Offensive Rookie of the Year to navigate yet another devastating injury in his skill corps, this time a gnarly season-ending broken ankle to Cam Skattebo. The 49ers meanwhile should be getting healthier, most notably with the expected return of quarterback Brock Purdy.  

Carolina Panthers +13 at Green Bay Packers A sterling second half against the Steelers in their 35-25 win as 2.5-point favorites last week aside, the Packers’ offense hasn’t shown enough explosion and consistency to lay this large of a price against any decent team. Deciding whether the Panthers qualify as a decent team is the tricky part, though they had shown definite progress — especially defensively — before last week’s 40-9 loss to the Bills as 7.5-point underdogs.

Washington Commanders +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Commanders got a handful of injured players back on "Monday Night Football" despite the humbling loss to the Chiefs. If quarterback Jayden Daniels is added to the mix this week, don’t rule them out from making a run to get back into the thick of wild-card contention.

Guesses (20-14-1)

Los Angeles Rams -13.5 vs. New Orleans Saints The Rams are up to second in the NFL in defensive DVOA and have one of the best one-two punches of pass rushers in Jared Verse and Byron Young. That makes this a less-than-ideal spot for Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough to make his first career start.

Houston Texans -1 vs. Denver Broncos No team may have improved as much as the Texans, which went from being impotent offensively to start the season to looking lethal despite missing their top two receivers in last week’s 26-15 win over the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites. This looks like a coin flip, but let’s count on the positive momentum carrying over for Houston.

Tennessee Titans +10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Tennessee needs to rate as one of the worst teams in NFL history to justify the double-digit point spreads it’s drawing each week. The sad part is, that characterization might not be far off. It’s not quite true statistically yet, however, so I’ll just keep stashing them at the bottom of the confidence list for now.