Vegas pick'em: NFL wild-card weekend winners against the spread

Only three AFC playoff teams rank above average in both offense and defense according to the DVOA ratings — the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos, No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars and the No. 5 seed Houston Texans.

The Texans’ path to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance is perilous considering they would most likely have to win three straight road games. Both the aforementioned units have also been too volatile throughout the season to fully trust.

So, throw them out.

Denver or Jacksonville therefore stand out as the most complete teams in that side of that field, bar none. They’re both more likely to reach Santa Clara, Calif., for Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8 than the odds indicate with the Broncos as high as +275 (i.e. risking $100 to win $275) and the Jaguars as high as 7-to-1, both at Wynn Las Vegas.

Target them to win the AFC instead of the Lombardi Trophy because of how much better the NFC has been as a whole on the season.

The NFC No. 1 seed Seattle Seahawks and No. 5 seed Los Angeles Rams have created major separation as the two best teams in the league. So much so that laying the -3 line with the NFC over the AFC in the early Super Bowl market at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook is another good bet.

The top-seeded teams in the playoffs are traditionally priced more prohibitively than they are this year.

The majority of bettors seem not to trust the Broncos and Seahawks, but they have the major advantage in only having to win two games to get to the Super Bowl instead of three like every other team. They also get to play those two games at their own stadiums, and Denver’s Empower Field at Mile High and Seattle’s Lumen Field are already traditionally two of the biggest homefield advantages.  

It’s chalky, but the +840 price on Seahawks versus Broncos being the matchup for Super Bowl 60 at STN Sports is too high. Seahawks versus Jaguars at 20-to-1 at BetMGM is also value.

The Jaguars at as high as 16-to-1 to win the Super Bowl is tempting for a longer outright shot, but there’s a better price to back that happening available.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 19-to-1 to win Super Bowl MVP at STN Sports. Jacksonville’s recent tear is largely because of Lawrence’s ascension, especially with a boost in his downfield passing frequency and efficiency, and the former No. 1 overall pick deserves almost the vast majority of the MVP equity in the scenario where his team pulls it off.   

There are six future bets I like ahead of the NFL playoffs beginning. Read below to see how I handicap the six wild-card weekend games. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season picking every game now sits at 145-116-10 after an 8-8 record last week.

Plays (50-43-4)

New England Patriots -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles’ offensive line rates No. 31 in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. From a talent perspective, the Chargers’ overall defensive unit wouldn’t be all that much higher. And yet, they continually overcame these shortcomings — which were largely created by injury — to reach the postseason for the second straight year behind a tremendous coaching job by Jim Harbaugh. At some point, however, the issues are going to catch up to them. Why not against a Patriots team that has won 13 of its last 14 games — covering in all but three of them along the way — behind a quarterback in Drake Maye who’s lapped the competition in expected points added (EPA) per play? There’s some warranted skepticism about the Patriots because of their historically weak schedule, but that shouldn’t matter here against a team they have outmanned.   

Los Angeles Rams -10.5 at Carolina Panthers It’s hard to lay a double-digit point spread in the playoffs, and the Panthers already beat the Rams 31-28 at home as 9.5-point favorites six weeks ago. Those are the arguments in favor of the home underdog, but the former reason might be overblown if not an outright myth and the latter was a highly-misleading result. The Rams outgained the Panthers by 1.6 net yards per play in that Week 13 game and were undone by three Matthew Stafford interceptions. That’s unlikely to repeat, and the Rams are probably going to be healthier this time around. They’ve been the best team in the NFL at full strength, and the best team in the NFL can easily blow out a mediocre side like the Panthers.

Leans (49-35-6)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Houston Texans Houston’s defense has quietly cratered over the last month, ranking 20^th in the NFL in allowing more than 5.5 yards per play despite facing poor offenses like the Raiders, Cardinals and the Riley Leonard-led Colts in the span. Pittsburgh’s attack isn’t much more inspiring, but it should be bolstered by top receiver DK Metcalf's return from suspension for the playoff opener. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been mediocre at best, but he’s shown an innate ability to lift his quality of play when it matters most — most recently in the wild 26-24 win as 4-point underdogs in the season finale hosting the Ravens. There’s been a lot of talk about the Steelers’ current five-game losing streak in postseason play, but they were a touchdown underdog in all but one of those losses. This is a fairer fight, and a play if the line gets back to +3.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 vs. Buffalo Bills How much is Josh Allen worth? The 2024-2025 NFL MVP gives the Bills a decided advantage at the most important position. This season’s rushing champion, James Cook, also gives them an edge at running back. But the Jaguars are arguably superior in every other area. They’ve got the fifth-best defense in the NFL by EPA per play. They’ve been much more consistent than the Bills, ranking No. 11 by DVOA’s variance metric to the latter’s No. 18. Jacksonville has won and covered eight straight, and Buffalo has too many concerns to confidently call on it to be the one to stop the hot streak.  

Guesses (46-38)

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles This number has ballooned too high. The widespread opening price of Philadelphia -3.5 was much fairer. The Eagles were a machine in last year’s playoffs en route to their Super Bowl victory, but they had shown that type of form all season when healthy. Philadelphia was much more up and down this year. The inflated line for this year’s wild-card game feels like paying a premium based on performance a year ago that may no longer be relevant. The 49ers are coming in on a low after losing 13-3 as 2.5-point underdogs to the Seahawks in Week 18, but they were without superstar tackle Trent Williams, who’s expected to return here. Williams has arguably been San Francisco’s most valuable player over the years given the stark difference in its splits when he misses time.

Green Bay Packers pick’em at Chicago Bears These teams have played twice since Week 14 and, despite splitting with each winning their home game, the Packers completely controlled both contests. The Bears never led in any of the 120 minutes of game time, needing an overtime miracle to overcome a 10-point fourth quarter deficit and beat the Packers 22-16 as 1.5-point favorites at Soldier Field in Week 16. They do have the cleaner injury report, which is a concern for the Packers. But that could be somewhat mitigated by the all the Packers’ remaining impact players coming in healthy after sitting out in Week 18 while the Bears went with their starters in a 19-16 loss to the Lions as 3.5-point favorites.