Mail ballots have arrived and early voting is imminent, prompting a look at four questions that could decide Nevada’s election. Governor Joe Lombardo enjoys a 53 percent approval rating and 36 percent disapproval, and is backed by President Donald Trump and the Clark County Education Association, while the state’s job creation remains a bright spot.
Lombardo entered the race with a massive financial edge, raising nearly $17 million last quarter, including Super PAC donations. That funding has let his campaign highlight Attorney General Aaron Ford’s alleged lobbyist‑funded junkets and a clemency case involving a man convicted of killing a pregnant woman, allowing Lombardo to focus on crime, his former sheriff’s strongest issue. Yet Ford still has a chance because of factors beyond either candidate’s control, such as gas prices above $5 a gallon, Trump’s unpopularity, and the historical advantage for the party not holding the White House in midterms.
Even if Lombardo wins by a modest margin, it is unclear whether Republicans will benefit in other statewide races. Lombardo’s endorsements of several legislative candidates in Democratic‑held seats mostly failed, and while Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony is the most closely tied Republican, State Controller Andy Matthews appears poised to be the strongest remaining statewide GOP contender.
Clark County’s voting patterns also matter. In 2016 Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 82,000 votes and in 2020 Joe Biden by 91,000, yet Trump’s 2024 margin narrowed to a loss by 27,000 votes, a swing that helped him win the state. How new Trump voters will respond—whether staying home or shifting due to price concerns—remains uncertain. Rural turnout, especially in heavily Republican Douglas County, which posted about 72 percent turnout in 2022 compared with under 52 percent in Clark County, could be decisive for Republicans.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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