Weekend wagers: Nine bets including three apiece on March Madness, Pennzoil 400

Gearheads have replaced fight freaks.

Otherwise, the makeup of the transient Las Vegas sports betting scene is the same this weekend as it was last weekend.

College basketball will stay king in sportsbooks until April 7 in San Antonio when the national champion cuts down the nets to conclude the Final Four. UFC 313 got its chance to wrest some of the focus away from March Madness last week; the Pennzoil 400 gets its turn now.

The spring Las Vegas race is annually the highest-bet race of the year in town, and different wagering options abound.

So I’ll handle it the same way I did UFC 313 before it — making it a focus of the column along with college basketball.

Read below for three bets on both NASCAR and college basketball along with a smattering of plays from across the rest of the sports world. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.    

NHL (0-2, -$500): Buffalo Sabres +170 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (STN Sports)

$200 to win $340

This might not be the best bet on the hockey board, but I’m going with it to fully commit to the local theme. The Golden Knights probably win this game, but they are not 64% to win this game as the market is implying. Ilya Samsonov will likely get the start over Adin Hill, good for a drop of a couple points in win probability. The Sabres have shown a little life lately (at least beating the Oilers on Monday) and aren’t dealing with the prohibitive rash of injuries that handicapped them earlier in the season. Look for Alex Tuch to score on his former team, and lead the Sabres to a chance at their second upset over a Pacific Division foe this week.  

College Basketball (1-2, -$90): Cornell -4.5 vs. Dartmouth (Circa Sports)

$330 to win $330

Let’s start outside of Las Vegas before getting to a pair of locally played championship games to beef up the morning card. The problem with only inviting four teams to a conference tournament like the Ivy League insists on doing is that there’s a good chance one of them doesn’t belong. Dartmouth doesn’t belong this year. The Big Green have rode an unsustainable heater as one of the luckiest teams in the nation to get here. There’s a good chance it runs out against Cornell, which beat Dartmouth 88-49 exactly a month ago. Cornell has significantly more talent than Dartmouth, which was picked to finish last in the Ivy coming into the season. This line is too low, and should be pushing -7.

College Basketball (1-2, -$90): Boise State pick’em vs. Colorado State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament final (STN)

$330 to win $300

Like it’s done so often over the last few weeks, Colorado State has spent the last two nights at the Thomas & Mack Center straight styling on the court. The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the nation and it’s been a joy to watch their brand of brilliantly-executed, pass-centric offensive basketball. But it all feels a little unsustainable. It’s going to crash out at some point, and this feels as likely as a spot against any versus a familiar foe who can slow the game down and muddy it up. The Broncos did that to knock off conference regular-season champion New Mexico Friday night, and should be able repeat the game plan here. Boise State is much better on the glass and taking care of the ball, two characteristics that should especially help in a championship game. Colorado State’s glow-up has been memorable, but it should end here.

College Basketball (1-2, -$90): UC Irvine +5.5 -109 vs. UC San Diego in Big West Conference Tournament final (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$330 to win $300

I’m going from fading one of the best teams to bet on over the last month this afternoon in Las Vegas to fading one of the best teams to bet on all season tonight in Henderson. Sigh. San Diego is a great story and belongs in the NCAA Tournament. I’m just not sure they get there. Irvine is every bit as talented, and the two teams split their pair of games this season. The Anteaters were a 6-point underdog ahead of a 60-52 win at San Diego in January. How are they getting the same spread on a neutral court in what should be a tense, low-scoring game? This game should come down to a single possession. Don’t be surprised if the Anteaters crush the Tritons’ dreams.

UFC (4-1, $725): Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ at -145 vs. Choi Seung-woo at UFC Fight Night (SuperBook)

$290 to win $200

Despite losing one of the three UFC 313 bets last week, the knockout streak survived. I’ve cashed knockout props on three straight cards in this space. Trying to extend the run is a nonnegotiable. But full disclosure, I’m worried about this one. The upstart Vallejos knocking out the chinny veteran Seung-woo is far and away the most likely outcome of the main-card opener tonight at the UFC Apex, but it’s priced accordingly. I only think it should be a little chalkier. Vallejos might need to get Choi out of there quickly to avoid losing steam and getting drug into a war of attrition with a more experienced fighter. The opportunity for a finish should be there from the start though. Choi has gotten knocked out in two of his last three fights, and Vallejos might more powerful than both of those winners.

NASCAR (0-2, -$410): William Byron to win Pennzoil 400 at 8-to-1 (SuperBook)

$300 to win $2,400

Kyle Larson has dominated at Las Vegas Motor Speedway since the introduction of NASCAR’s next-gen car, but his Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron hasn’t been much slower. The gap is certainly less than the betting market implies with Larson at -350 to Byron being as high as 8-to-1. Between Larson’s recent success and the hype surrounding Christopher Bell’s attempt to win a fourth straight race on the season, Byron feels lost in the shuffle. That’s a perfect time to buy on one of the best drivers in the world, particularly one of the best on track types like the one in Las Vegas.

NASCAR (0-2, -$410): Chevrolet to be winning manufacturer in Pennzoil 400 at +130 (South Point)

$300 to win $390

Larson is the most likely winner, and Byron might be second (though probably third behind Bell). The pair’s teammates, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman, also figure to be a factor. Then there are several other Chevrolets that could be competitive notably including hometown hero Kyle Busch and usual Las Vegas contender Ross Chastain. South Point has Toyota as the slight favorite to be the winning manufacturer at +125. That can’t be right. Chevrolet has more cars, and it has faster cars. Maybe Byron can prevail and cash both of these bets in one pass through the finish line. Even if he fails, it’s nice to have a long list of backups that could come through and cash this prop.  

NASCAR (0-2, -$410): Riley Herbst -110 head-to-head vs. A.J. Allmendinger in Pennzoil 400 (Caesars/William Hill)

$330 to win $300

The Bishop Gorman graduate Herbst rose to prominence through racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He’s maintained success on his home track as a professional, having finished in the top 10 of four straight starts in the Xfinity Series including a victory in October 2023. There’s no reason to think he will tail off too significantly in a Cup car. Herbst will have strong equipment, driving for Toyota’s 23XI Racing. His car should be much better than Allmendinger’s Kauling Racing Chevrolet. The veteran Allmendinger is a real threat at certain stops on the NASCAR calendar but the half-mile ovals are more Herbst’s domain. He should have a happy homecoming.   

NBA (2-0, $700): New York Knicks +7 -115 at Golden State Warriors (Boyd Sports)

$345 to win $300

Last week I faded the hottest team in the association in this column and lived to tell the tale with a nice cash to boot. This game affords a similar setup. The Warriors have won six in a row and 11 of their last 12 to start whispers about whether they could make yet another run to the NBA Finals. I’m not fully buying it. They’re a lot more formidable since acquiring Jimmy Butler and won’t be an easy out but they’ve also benefitted from a lot of scheduling breaks. On the surface, this could look like another one with the Knicks playing without injured star Jalen Brunson. But New York’s efficiency hasn’t dipped too much without him, not enough to justify this large of a line move. The Knicks have already also been on the west coast for more than a week with three days since their last game, so travel and rest aren’t a deterrent here. New York will give Golden State all it can handle.  

Weekend betting column year to date: 34-28, $4,276

Weekend betting column all-time: 862-956, $39,424.09 

Previous pending wagers: New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800);  Edmonton Oilers to win President's Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800);  Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900);  South Carolina women's basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Houston to win the men's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Texas to win the women's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Rory McIlroy to win the Masters at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Justin Thomas to win the Masters at 30-to-1 ($95 to win $2,850); Tyrell Hatton to win the Masters at 50-to-1 ($2,850); Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Western Conference at +110 ($500 to win $550); Arkansas to win the College World Series at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Texas Rangers to win the American League at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl 60 at 20-to-1 ($200 to win $4,000); Russell Henley to win the Players Championship at 50-to-1 ($50 to win $2,500); Cooper Flagg to win John Wooden Award at +190 ($500 to win $950); Zach Edey to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Maine to win America East Tournament at 10-to-1 ($100 to win $1,000)