Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion
Even if a US penetration remains highly unlikely, Matthew Schmidt, an subordinate professor of nationalist information at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, observed that the fact Canadians are preparing signals just how dramatically the global order has shifted.
He added that Canadian leaders face difficult questions about how closely they wish to continue cooperating with the American military—a concern that would provide them with vital intelligence should they ever seek to undermine Canada in any manner.
"It's truly doing harm to relationships with the United States, and there's a definite magnitude of morganatic fear," he said.
Americans might not take Trump's remarks about making Canada the 51st state seriously, he noted, but Canadians clearly do—and they are ready to defend themselves if necessary.
What would such a scenario look like if it occurred?
The initial phase of a conflict could be brief.
According to the model employed by the Canadian military, as reported by the Globe and Mail earlier this year, a US assault would overwhelm Canada's strategic positions within a week.
Its forces would quickly be outnumbered, compelling Canadian troops to adopt guerrilla‑type tactics in an attempt to resist the invader.
Allied nations such as France and Britain would be summoned to provide support and defence for Canada, the paper reported in January, citing senior government officials.
The theoretical model is believed to be the first instance in a period that Canada has planned for an American attack.
The modelling falls on the lighter end of military combat planning, Coates said.
He explained that, unlike its NATO allies, Canada has lagged in establishing an effective response plan for any conceivable invasion, and is now playing catch‑up in this era of unpredictable geopolitics.
Part of that shortfall, he said, became evident following a recent call from Canada’s defence chief to dramatically expand the military, including the addition of as many as 300,000 lightly trained reservists.
An invasion of Canada might not be straightforward from the US perspective either.
Even with its superior military, the United States would struggle to secure domestic backing for a campaign against Canada, Schmidt said.
"I deliberation you would person a ample fig of American officers who would resign if fixed the bid to invade Canada," he said.
"They would spot it arsenic an amerciable and immoral order."
Schmidt pointed out that Canadian and American soldiers routinely train together and share mutual respect.
But in the improbable event that relations deteriorate to the point of combat, he said the US would likely focus on seizing valuable Canadian assets such as oil and minerals, and pursuing political decapitation.
"You would spot a a benignant of cognition that would reflector possibly what you saw successful Venezuela," he said, referring to US military action earlier this year to seize former Venezuelan President Maduro.
Although he acknowledged the United States possesses greater overall military capacity, he maintained that "pound for pound" Canadian soldiers would be able to hold their own in a fight.