Why Liverpool are ready to make Barcola third £100m signing

At first glance, Barcola looks like the natural successor to Luis Diaz. Liverpool opted not to pursue a direct replacement after the Colombian’s departure last summer, yet the underlying data suggest the PSG forward could fill that gap. Opta’s subordinate similarity model rates the Frenchman as the winger whose output most closely resembled Diaz’s across Europe’s top five leagues in 2025‑26 (78%), with Mohamed Salah (65%), Lamine Yamal (61%) and Vinicius Junior (61%) the next closest matches. A closer look, however, indicates Liverpool would not simply be swapping one winger for another. Barcola is a left‑winger by trade, having logged nearly all of his Champions League minutes for PSG on that flank, but his game is shaped by a centre‑forward’s instincts. He played as a striker until age 17, a fact reflected in his positioning and shot selection. Last season he averaged 3.5 shots per 90 minutes in Ligue 1, placing him among the division’s most prolific shooters despite operating from wide areas. His 9.83 expected goals (xG) ranked in the 95th percentile among wingers across Europe’s top five leagues, meaning only about 5 % of wide players consistently found themselves in better scoring positions. Barcola converted those chances into 11 league goals, outperforming his xG, while no PSG teammate or Ligue 1 winger recorded a higher xG total during the 2025‑26 campaign. Those instincts are evident in how he attacks defenders. Barcola was the only player across Europe’s top five leagues to average more than two shot‑ending carries per 90 minutes (2.06), showing his ability to drive at opponents before creating shooting opportunities for himself. He also averaged 8.69 touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes—the seventh‑highest figure among more than 1,500 eligible players—reinforcing the picture of a winger who regularly occupies goalscoring zones. His shot map highlights a player who attacks dangerous central areas rather than settling for speculative efforts from distance. Only Ousmane Dembele posted a better combined shot measurement with accidental creation in Ligue 1, underscoring Barcola’s rare talent to finish attacks and create chances for teammates. The comparison with Salah is revealing. While both pose a significant goal threat, Barcola is a more direct shot carrier. He attempted more take‑ons per 90 than the Egyptian forward last season (4.26 to 3.38), but created fewer chances (2.16 to 2.33), attempted far fewer crosses (1.15 to 4.89) and through balls (0.25 to 0.59). The numbers point to a player who looks to dismantle defenders himself rather than orchestrate attacks from wide areas. There are also signs his game continues to evolve under Luis Enrique. Barcola’s passing pattern across his three Champions League campaigns at PSG has become progressively focused on advancing play in the final third, reflecting greater tactical maturity. Rather than dribbling at every opportunity, he now shows a better understanding of when to accelerate attacks and when to recycle possession. His work without the ball is another reason Liverpool’s recruitment team are understood to rate him highly. Barcola ranked ninth across Europe’s top five leagues for possessions won in the final third last season, a metric that reflects the aggressive pressing and strength likely to be demanded under Andoni Iraola. That profile may suit Liverpool’s evolving approach. With Wirtz excelling at releasing runners between the lines, and Ekitike and Isak expected to occupy central defenders, Liverpool arguably need another player capable of attacking space rather than demanding the ball at feet. Barcola’s willingness to make penetrative runs and arrive in goalscoring positions could supply exactly that. Perhaps most encouragingly for any prospective buyer, there is reason to believe Barcola has not yet reached his ceiling. A late‑blooming physical developer, he has already transformed from a promising Lyon academy graduate into a two‑time Champions League winner with PSG. At just 23, his blend of pace, intelligent movement, elite shot volume, relentless pressing and increasing creative output suggests one of Europe’s most complete young wide forwards is still improving.