Why the Golden Knights should think twice before chasing prized free agent Marner

Toronto Maple Leafs' Mitchell Marner (16) protects the puck from Vegas Golden Knights' Shea Theodore during the second period in Toronto, on Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024. Photo by: Chris Young / The Canadian Press via AP

With the Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers winding down, eyes in the NHL are already beginning to drift to the next major date on the schedule—the start of free agency on July 1.

One name sits atop all of the countless lists ranking the impending free agents—homegrown Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner. So naturally, the Vegas Golden Knights are seen as a fit for the 28-year-old winger.

Vegas general manager Kelly McCrimmon and president of hockey operations George McPhee have made tenacious pursuit of proven veteran talent a hallmark of the franchise, and that’s not expected to slow any time soon.

Hockey’s foremost insider, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic, has named Vegas a potential landing spot for Marner. Top hockey news site Daily Faceoff recently ranked the Golden Knights as the No. 1 best destination for him.

The Golden Knights are third in offshore betting odds to land Marner if, as widely expected, he leaves the Maple Leafs. They’re behind only the Chicago Blackhawks (which have among the most salary cap space in the NHL) and Carolina Hurricanes (which reportedly inquired about Marner before this season’s trade deadline).

The aggressive approach of McCrimmon and McPhee has ultimately served the Golden Knights well and turned them into one of the best teams in the league in the eight years since their formation. But this is one instance where they should couch the instinct.

Signing Marner to a massive deal—he’s expected to garner around $14 million per season for a maximum contract length of seven years—isn’t the way the Golden Knights should respond to their disappointing, second-round playoff exit to the Oilers. 

Vegas is already short on cap space, with less than $10 million available for next season, and needs to allocate the aforementioned kinds of future terms to its own superstar, Jack Eichel, who would become a free agent in the summer of 2026 if not extended. 

Yes, the Golden Knights could fit both Eichel and Marner—especially with the expected rise of the current $88 million salary cap—but it would require major personnel cuts elsewhere and hamstring the organization for years to come.

To make the numbers work, Daily Faceoff suggested working out a sign-and-trade arrangement with Toronto including some combination of Mark Stone, William Karlsson and Shea Theodore.

The idea of moving on from the captain Stone might be attractive to the front office given his chronic health issues, but it feels highly unlikely to occur. The 33-year-old has a full no-movement clause in his contract.

It would also still hurt significantly to lose the long-time leader of the team, but it would be even more devastating to ship out Original Misfits Theodore and Karlsson. Both are on team-friendly deals—Theodore makes $7.4 million per year while Karlsson brings in $5.9 million annually.

Marner, on the other hand, will come at no bargain. He’s been one of the best 20 players in the league in recent years but would need to transcend into the top 10 to live up to the aforementioned contract.

Players the caliber of Marner rarely hit unrestricted free agency in their primes, so when they do, desperate teams tend to overpay. The Golden Knights shouldn’t be desperate, especially given what could be an odd pairing of Marner with Eichel.

Both players are similar offensively in that they’re facilitators first, among the elite in playmaking, but ranked a little farther back when it comes to pure scoring. 

The biggest reason the Golden Knights got ousted by the Oilers was their lack of a lethal shooter who wouldn’t hesitate to fire pucks at the net. Eichel failed to score a goal in the five-game series, and Marner has repeatedly come under criticism for the same kind of perceived postseason underperformance and tentativeness.

As tantalizing as an Eichel-Marner “Big Two” might sound, it still would only be at best the third strongest duo in the Western Conference, behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

And the Golden Knights would have to sacrifice any semblance of depth to make it happen. McCrimmon and McPhee would be better off shopping for cheaper options when free agency starts. Unearthing an undervalued scorer or two with upside would be a better use of scant resources while not uprooting the rest of the roster.

This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.