'Winning the Ashes would be Stokes' greatest miracle'

Seven runs stood between England and a series victory over India.

Six, really. One sweet connection from Gus Atkinson could have brought the scores level in the final Test. A tie would have been good enough for England.

When the margin is so narrow, what can be learned? Take your catches, don't throw your wicket away after you've made a hundred, try not lose one of your bowlers to a dislocated shoulder. Hardly writing a new coaching manual, is it?

Above all, the nipper at The Oval reinforced what we knew beforehand.

With Ben Stokes in the team, England can beat anyone. Without him, they are vulnerable.

Other teams have to deal with injuries or lack of fitness. India were without Jasprit Bumrah and Rishabh Pant. Then again, the tourists won the two Tests Bumrah did not play and comfortably put away England 4-1 last year without Pant in the team.

"No," was Stokes' simple answer when asked if he had any concerns that England are too reliant on him.

In reality, Stokes is England's beating heart. When he isn't there as the all-action all-rounder, England lose their balance. Without him as captain, they lose his tactical nous and sense of focus. Runs, wickets and fielding. He is the personification of his team. It probably should be called Benball, not Bazball.

One wonders how Stokes, the arch-competitor, coped with watching Monday's finale go down to the wire. England's patron saint of lost causes was the man to engineer their last one-wicket victory in a Test.

Stokesless, England lost. The next time he will be seen on the field, hopefully, will be the first Test against Australia in Perth in November.

England can win the Ashes. They have their best chance of success in Australia since they last won a series down under, back in 2010-11. It is a low bar, mind. In the past 14 years, they have played 15 Tests in Australia, lost 13, drawn two and won none.

That chance to win begins and ends with Ben Stokes. If that sounds like hyperbole, consider this: Of the England squad that travels to Australia, none will have ever tasted victory in a Test down under and as few as five will have played a Test there.

Between them, they will have one Test hundred on Australian soil, and that will belong to Stokes. Of the two bowlers to have a five-wicket haul in Australia, one will be Stokes, the other Mark Wood. If Wood is fit for November, he will not have played a Test in 15 months.

Stokes' task is clear. He needs to recover from a shoulder injury, play like Ian Botham, captain like Mike Brearley, and stay the course. The last part is probably the hardest. He has now not played a full part in any of England's past four Test series because of injuries.

He has history of turning water into wine (or whatever he's drinking these days, after claiming to have cut back on the booze). The 2019 World Cup final, the 2019 Headingley Test. Cape Town, the 2022 T20 World Cup final. The angry hundred at Lord's in 2023, Headingley again the same year. Lord's this year.

If he pulls this off, and gets his hands on the urn in Sydney in January, it really would be his greatest miracle.

Support will come from Joe Root, Harry Brook and Ben Duckett. It is time for Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope to emphatically deliver on the patience they have been afforded. England's batting looks strong, but they are only an injury from Jacob Bethell, who by November might only have played two first-class matches in 11 months. Jamie Smith will have to show better durability than against India, when he faded badly in his first five-Test series as a wicketkeeper-batter.

Who knows which bowlers will have seats on the plane when the music stops. The prospect of Wood partnering with Jofra Archer on a spicy Perth pitch is tantalising, the dream of matching Australia's heavy artillery.

In a best-case scenario, they will be supported by Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue, possibly with space for a tearaway bolter. If England really can get their most dangerous weapons to Australia, then they must be managed properly. There is a balance between starting well and making sure there is enough ammunition for the whole campaign.

For the spinner, the Liam Dawson debate looks to have been put to bed. Ricky Ponting reckons Shoaib Bashir is the closest thing England have to Nathan Lyon. Enough said.

There will be anxiety about England's preparation, or lack of it. They are due to play only one warm-up game before the first Test, against their own Lions team. It is worth remembering England have a habit of winning the first Test of series, and losing the last. Against India, they won the opener for the sixth consecutive series, and lost a fifth finale in six.

The biggest challenge will be shutting out the noise that is already coming from Australia. It will only get louder over the next three months. Lyon, Steve Smith and David Warner have piped up. It's only a matter of time before Kylie Minogue, Ned Kelly and Bluey the dog have their say too.

There is something about this England team that particularly irks the Australians. They cannot fathom the Bazball way. They respect Stokes, but do not rate New Zealander Brendon McCullum. He won one of his 16 Tests against the Aussies, and fluffed his lines in the 2015 World Cup final at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

However, the Australian public can be quick to turn on their own. They did in 2010-11.

Australia have questions to answer to over their batting, especially the top three. It currently comprises a fading veteran in Usman Khawaja, a Bazball tribute pick in Sam Konstas and an out-of-position Cameron Green. Beyond that, Smith is the best Ashes batter since Don Bradman, Travis Head is one of the best all-format batters in the world and Alex Carey has recovered from the wobble that followed his 'stumping' of Jonny Bairstow in 2023.

The Aussie super-strength is their bowling, the Four Horsemen of captain Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Lyon.

If the seamers need back-up, they can call on Scott Boland, with a Test bowling average of 16.53, the best of anyone since 1914. Still, in his two Tests against the Bazballers in England in 2023, he returned 2-231.

In short, England have the better batting, Australia the better bowling. Bowlers tend to win series and Australia are at home, so they will start as favourites.

But England have Stokes.

There are 108 days until the first Test in Perth on 21 November. 108 days of worrying about Stokes' shoulder and hearing Glenn McGrath's score prediction. 108 days of figuring out how to work when sleep deprived and turning down Christmas with the in-laws because it clashes with the Boxing Day Test. 108 days of checking Sheffield Shield scores and hoping Archer doesn't slip in the shower. 108 days of wondering whether England can do it.

108 days. Tick, tock.