Analysis: Don’t write off UNLV football just yet

Dan Mullen prepared for the worst as he sat down to review UNLV’s opener against Idaho State.

The Rebels had to rally in the fourth quarter to get past the Football Championship Subdivision opponent 38-31 Saturday afternoon in Mullen’s coaching UNLV debut, so he expected to grade almost all of his players poorly.

It didn’t turn out that way. Mullen actually came away from the session more enthused than troubled.   

“I guess I’ll sound crazy, but I thought the film was better than I expected it to look,” he said in a news conference earlier this week.

Mullen mentioned defensive coordinator Paul Guenther feeling similarly despite his unit conceding an alarming 555 total yards to the Bengals.

It might all sound hard to believe, but let’s take their word for it. Don’t surrender all the Scarlet and Gray preseason hope just yet; they deserve somewhat of a mulligan going into their second game at 6:30 PST tonight at Sam Houston, which will air on CBS Sports Network.

The matchup with the Bearkats should provide a truer sense of whether Mullen can maintain the momentum built by his predecessor, Barry Odom, like the preseason sentiment projected.

“A lot more sense of urgency, a lot more focus,” senior linebacker Marsel McDuffie said of how the team was approaching the week. “That performance we put on film last Saturday was not who we are, not who we want to be.”

It was a 180 from the last time UNLV faced Idaho State, also in Week 1 back in 2022. That experience provides a direct case study of how misleading one game against a lower-level opponent can turn out.

The Rebels crushed the Bengals 52-21, sitting their starters in the second half after getting out to a 45-7 lead at halftime. The rout was hailed as proof that then coach Marcus Arroyo had finally built a Mountain West contender.

That didn’t pan out; the Rebels improved overall but not by much going 5-7 on the year including six consecutive losses in conference play that sealed Arroyo’s exit.   

It’s not just UNLV, of course. There are examples every year of teams overperforming or underperforming to give a false first impression.

“I want to see big improvements from Week 1 to Week 2, but really watching the game, we did things well,” Mullen said. “We did a lot of things really well. When we did things poorly, we did them really poorly. It was a lot of extremes in the course of the game rather than consistent, good football. I’d rather have more consistent, good football top to bottom this week.”

One reason why Mullen is confident that can happen is because of the inexperience of the roster, and the extra value playing one game can hold. The coach said that all but two of his first-string players on offense, defense and special teams started for the first time in a Football Bowl Subdivision game against Idaho State.   

No one has ever questioned the talent level of the group he brought in, but sharpness isn’t guaranteed to be immediate, even if a large portion of them are upperclassmen from power-conference schools. Mullen is banking on the old coaching chestnut that players make their biggest leap from the first to the second game.   

“I think a new team like this, chemistry is still building,” said Reid Williams, a center who transferred from Chattanooga. “I definitely think as an O-line we’re getting closer, and this week as we move forward we know what to fix and where to improve.”

The offensive line might be the least of UNLV’s worries. The unit sprung the rushing attack to 307 yards on 41 attempts with star junior Jai’Den Thomas chipping in 147 yards and three touchdowns on his own.

The line did allow three sacks, but those were largely the result of quarterbacks Anthony Colandrea and Alex Orji trying to make something happen. They usually did make something happen, finishing with a combined 232 yards through the air on 18-for-24 passing and 127 yards on the ground off of 19 carries.

“Both of them graded as champions for us, and neither of them graded as champions in any scrimmage we’ve had so far,” Mullen said. “I was pleased with that performance.”

Mullen said both would continue to play against the Bearkats. Colandrea led a game-tying scoring drive in the fourth quarter against the Bengals and capped it with a touchdown pass before Alex Orji ran in the go-ahead score the next time UNLV had the ball.

The defense also held Idaho State scoreless for its final three drives with McDuffie and cornerback Laterrance Welch nabbing back-to-back interceptions

“Everyone was just really locked in (late),” McDuffie said. “We had all 11 guys out there focused and it was one common goal. We had to have it. We had been letting up big play after big play after big play all game, but we just came together and said now it’s the fourth quarter it’s time to do or die.”

That mindset was reassuring to Mullen, who credited his team with not turning on each other. It would have been easy to do struggling in a game where the betting market favored the Rebels by 31.5 points.

Mullen found his share of teaching moments while watching the film, but he also saw Idaho State make just as many “spectacular” plays that weren’t UNLV’s fault. But the Rebels kept their composure.

Maybe coming through when it matters is more valuable than premiering with a blowout victory.

“We’re going to play good players that are going to make great plays,” Mullen said. “We’ve got to make sure we respond from that but make sure we’re making the plays we should make. Don’t give them the other easy ones.”