Analysis: Now might be the last chance for UNLV to conquer its Boise State problem

Editor's note: Este artículo está traducido al español.

When Boise State joined the Mountain West in 2011, many forecasted it as the program to beat in the conference for years to come.

With the Broncos set to leave for the Pac-12 next season, it’s safe to say they’ve lived up to all the hype. Boise State sits as an odds-on favorite to win the Mountain West for a third consecutive year, and a seventh time in its 15 seasons in the league, going into a pivotal Week 8 showdown with UNLV.

The Broncos host the Rebels at 12:30 p.m. Saturday with Fox Sports 1 airing the game between the current Mountain West co-leaders.

“Since they joined the league, they’ve been the team that’s set the standard,” UNLV coach Dan Mullen said in his weekly news conference.

It’s a standard that UNLV has been unable to snap, even since the program’s uptick that began three years ago.

The Scarlet and Gray are 0-8 against the Broncos in the Mountain West, the only current team in the conference that’s been unable to topple the Goliath at least once. Even New Mexico (2015), Wyoming (2016) and San Jose State (2020) battered the blue bully once.

UNLV hasn’t done it since 1976, before either school competed in the top division of college football.

But what better time than now?

It would be a shame for UNLV (6-0 overall, 2-0 Mountain West) to watch Boise State (4-2, 2-0) depart as conference mates without ever defeating them. There’s always the possibility they could meet for a second time this season in the Mountain West Championship Game, like last year, but that’s not certain to happen and even looks improbable given remaining schedules and tiebreakers.   

This could be UNLV’s last chance at Boise State. It needs not miss.

“I think a win on Saturday would mean a ton for this group,” UNLV junior tackle Austin Boyd said. “We’ve kind of had this marked on our calendar. Obviously, every game is very important for us, but (Boise) has been a really big rivalry here for the last couple years. I know for me and some of the guys that have been here for the last couple years, we have wanted another shot at Boise, and I know, without a doubt come Saturday, we’ll be ready.”

UNLV is exuding confidence despite the lopsided series history, and it has every reason to believe.

The matchup between the two programs appears to have changed drastically this season.

In the three meetings over the last two years since UNLV football rose to contender status, Boise State has always held a decided advantage offensively — largely because of since-departed, current Raiders star running back Ashton Jeanty.

That’s flipped this year.

UNLV rates ahead of Boise State by virtually every advanced offensive metric, even those that adjust for opponent considering the latter has played a much tougher schedule with losses to Notre Dame and South Florida.

Rebels quarterback Anthony Colandrea has been more accurate and more explosive than Broncos counterpart Maddux Madsen. Ditto for UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas over Boise State’s two-headed rushing attack of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines combined.

That far from guarantees victory for UNLV, but it does mean Boise State is in for a new challenge. Broncos coach Spencer Danielson himself spent his own weekly news conference stressing the differences in facing Mullen’s team compared to the Barry Odom-led squads he had gotten used to scouting.

“I think (Colandrea) said a couple weeks back how dynamic our offense is and how we can really take that time of possession or can score fast when we need to,” Boyd said.

None of this may matter.

A pessimist would point out that not only has Boise State won by an average of 20.5 points per game in the previous eight showdowns, but also that the betting market indicators this time around are in its favor. The Broncos have grown from an opening 10.5-point favorite to as high as a 13-point favorite.  

That’s more than three times higher than both of last year’s meetings when Boise State closed as a 4-point favorite on each occasion.

There’s an argument to be made that Mullen has closed the talent gap with his ballyhooed transfer-portal class that's mostly produced through a half-season, but a one-year influx of players can only go so far. Boise State has an insurmountable edge because of the infrastructure it’s built going on two decades as one of college football’s most consistent programs.

That’s what Jeanty cited when asked what he thought separated the Broncos from the rest of the Mountain West ever since they arrived.

“It’s the winning culture,” he said. “It's been one of the winningest programs for a long time. So, bringing the right people in the building and continuing to keep that mindset of trying to win no matter what, and always be on top. … Obviously, big game, we can't lose to UNLV on the blue (turf), man. Can't do that one."

Jeanty said the last sentence with a smirk that spelled arrogance, but it’s deserved. Few from Boise are throwing around the “rivalry” tag as freely as those in Las Vegas.

The Rebels need to beat the Broncos to earn that respect. UNLV is projected to be the new masters of the Mountain West once Boise State bails, and there could be no better passing of the torch than on Saturday afternoon.

Boise State has provided a lot of frustration for UNLV over the years, but it would pale in comparison to the triumph the Rebels would feel if they can slay the long-reigning Mountain West kings.   

“I think everyone in the sense of the locker room has a pretty big chip on our shoulder and is going into this week like any other big rivalry game,” Boyd said. “We treat it like any other week, but definitely the boys are fired up for this game.”