Analysis: Will the Raiders’ big bet on Geno Smith pay off?

Editor's note: Este artículo está traducido al español.

Geno Smith found the rhythm that had been eluding him dating back to minicamp in June during a stretch in the middle of the Raiders’ second practice of training camp on Thursday.

Smith capped one 11-on-11 session by rolling out and hitting top receiver Jakobi Meyers with a pinpoint bullet of a pass for a big gain. When he came back in for another period against a full-team defense, Smith showed off his timing with star tight end Brock Bowers as the pair connected for two quick-strike connections near the line of scrimmage.   

“For me, it’s always completions, completions, completions,” Smith said when asked about his training camp point of emphasis. “It’s all about production.”

Getting a glimpse of Smith in peak form, albeit a brief one, had to be reassuring for the Raiders’ fans packing the East bleachers to watch their team get ready for the season.

Smith is going to need to be that sharp consistently if the Raiders expect to fulfill new coach Pete Carroll’s stated expectation to, “win a bunch of games.”

Las Vegas avoided hitching its long-term future to the veteran quarterback who will turn 35 years old ahead of the Raiders’ Week 6 game against the Tennessee Titans this season. The franchise gave him only a two-year guaranteed deal after bringing him to town via trade with Seattle, but the promised minimum $66.5 million price tag stands out as substantial.

It makes Smith tied for the sixth-highest paid player in the league this season at $40 million per contract database spotrac.com.   

Even Smith’s most ardent supporters would find it difficult to mount a case he’s ever played to that high of a level in 12 previous NFL seasons. But the Raiders need him to at least approach that elite status to live up to the terms of his deal.   

All of the biggest names in the organization have expressed full confidence that he’s capable.

“Geno is a hell of a quarterback,” edge rusher Maxx Crosby said. “He’s another guy that gets slept on for some reason, but Geno can play and he’s super competitive. Getting to see him and go against him every single day has been an awesome experience so far…I know he’s definitely coming here to prove himself and show the world what he’s all about.”     

Few, if any, teams in the NFL have gotten worse production at the league’s most important position over the last two years than the Raiders. They’ve cycled through six different starting quarterbacks since benching and cutting ties with Derek Carr in December 2022 with none of them giving the team the chance to win at a high level.

Smith should change that this season with a baseline of competency that’s been sorely missing. Whether he can elevate to a higher level largely comes down to the opinion of who’s being asked, or even what numbers are being referenced.

Smith is such a polarizing player that it’s not only pundits and scouts who disagree on him; it’s also statistics. Most quarterbacks land in the same general range by most all-encompassing metrics, but Smith has a wide deviation.

He rated 21^st in the league by QBR in his final of three seasons as the starter with the Seahawks last year, for instance, but graded out ninth highest by Pro Football Focus.

“In this league, every day you’ve got to prove yourself,” Smith said. “Not only to your guys but to the rest of the league and to yourself. For me, when you’re coming to a new team, you’ve got to set the standard, set the example, and it’s through hard work.”

Carroll said choosing to reunite with Smith had much to do with the quarterback’s work ethic and leadership qualities.

“He's been with us, he knows, and he's such an all-in guy that there's no questing what his commitment is and his conviction is,” Carroll said. “So that just helps the message get embedded even more so. It's why he's so valuable to us.”

Smith had the best season of his career under Carroll in Seattle in 2022 when he famously declared he, “ain’t write back,” to those who had long written him off. He won the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award, and led the Seahawks to the playoffs where he made his lone career postseason start — a 41-23 loss to the rival San Francisco 49ers.

Those believing in the Raiders this season can easily reference the way Carroll and Smith seemed to get the best out of each other. Those who are more skeptical may counter that Smith’s play has tailed off a bit in each of the two seasons since that memorable 2022-2023 campaign — and the reason might not be all that mysterious.

Players like current Raiders minority owner Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have defied the trend in recent years, but most quarterbacks tend to exit out of their primes by their mid-30s with clear declines at 34- or 35-years-old.     

Smith will inherently be fighting the clock during his time in silver and black.

“We kind of look at his age and you go, ‘Oh, he’s a little bit of an old man,’” second-year center Jackson Powers-Johnson said. “No. He just has so much youth and so much fire in him. I’ve talked about him before but he just has so much energy and so much want left in him. I think that’s the biggest thing I (learned) because I grew up watching Geno. When he was drafted, I’m in middle school, elementary.”

Smith said one of the figures who’s helped bring out that passion and hone his leadership skills is Alex Guerrero, the Raiders’ new wellness coach. Guerrero served as Brady’s top confidant through most of his career with the quarterback routinely crediting the coach for his longevity.

Perhaps he could have similar success with Smith, even though there’s no concrete evidence that the Raiders’ new quarterback has shown age-related regression.  

Smith had the highest accuracy rate of his career in 2024 per the DVOA ratings’ charting data, and was one of only five passers in the NFL with a 70% completion rate or higher.   

But his athleticism might have been decreasing elsewhere, as Smith posted a career-worst 8.8% sack rate. Some of those struggles can be pinned on Seattle’s offensive line though.

The Raiders’ front was only slightly better than the Seahawks’ last season, but Carroll has forecasted a leap this year with young players like Powers-Johnson and right tackle D.J. Glaze developing.   

The Seahawks' offensive line also deserves partial blame for Smith’s 15 interceptions in 2024 as many of them came when he was under heavy pressure.

The Raiders must cut down on their turnovers this season after ranking in the league’s bottom five in interception rate over the last three seasons.

It’s still extremely early as the team acclimates to new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s scheme but, so far, Smith hasn’t shown much reason for optimism in that regard. He’s thrown a lot of intercepted, or interception-worthy, passes in practice.

The hot streak that occurred earlier Thursday cooled off by the end when safety Isaiah Pola-Mao jumped one of Smith’s throws for an interception that sent the defense into a celebration.   

Smith has shown some causes for concern in his brief time as a Raider so far. He’s also flashed signs that he’s the type of quarterback the Raiders desperately need to get back to being competitive on offense.  

That’s the nature of training camp, and the team is bought in on the idea that Smith is the answer.

“He’s elite,” receiver Tre Tucker said of Smith. “At the end of the day, a defense can be right but he'll still make them wrong. That’s why he’s unique. That’s why he’s one of the top quarterbacks in this league. He will be why I think we’re going to have a very, very big year.”