AP: UNLV a long shot for playoff even if it beats Boise State and wins out

UNLV running back Jai'Den Thomas (9) is tackled by Air Force defensive back Max Mustell (36) during the first half of an NCAA football game at Allegiant Stadium Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. Photo by: Steve Marcus

The college football season has hit the halfway point with 11 teams still undefeated. Only two of them, UNLV and Navy, are not in The Associated Press Top 25 poll this week.

UNLV has flown under the radar while starting 6-0 in Dan Mullen's first season. A road win this week against Mountain West standard bearer Boise State would change that.

No. 19 South Florida, No. 22 Memphis, Tulane and, until last week, North Texas — all from the American Conference — have generated most of the discussion about Group of Five candidates for the 12-team College Football Playoff. UNLV and Navy have been after-thoughts.

The American is about to start eating its own with head-to-head matchups that will thin its herd. Navy is likely on borrowed time. Its last three wins all have been by one score, and it still has to play conference opponents North Texas, USF and Memphis and a nonconference road game against No. 13 Notre Dame.

UNLV, on the other hand, will be in strong position to finish the regular season undefeated if it can beat Boise State.

Assuming no team in the American goes unbeaten and UNLV does by winning out through the Mountain West championship game, it would be a situation similar to 2017. That was the year UCF was 12-0 after winning the American — there was no G5 automatic CFP qualifier then — and didn't get one of the four playoff spots because of what the committee judged to be an unimpressive schedule. UCF beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-0.

No one would argue UNLV has played one of the weakest schedules in the country. The Rebels' home win over UCLA is aging better than expected given what the Bruins have done the last two weeks. Still, their past opponents are a combined 11-20 and their future opponents are 18-19. In their last game, UNLV had to come from behind five times before beating what now is a 1-5 Air Force team.

A lot would have to go UNLV's way for it to make the playoff. The way Mullen sees it, the Rebels have accomplished a lot already. They returned only two starters from the Barry Odom-coached team that went 11-3, and Mullen brought in 33 transfers from power-conference schools.

Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea has the highest passer rating in the MWC, returning running back Jai’Den Thomas is on track to rush for 1,000 yards and the offense has scored at least 30 points in the first six games for the first time. The defense is tied for second nationally with 14 takeaways.

The Rebels had the fourth-most voting points among teams outside the Top 25 on Sunday, the closest they've come to cracking the rankings for the first time this season.

“It's not like you walked into this loaded roster," Mullen said. “You walked into some guys who wanted to stick around and believed in the university. We brought in a lot of guys who believed in what we were going to try to do. Thankfully, we brought in some really good guys.”