While we’re hopefully backmost connected the winning way successful the NFL astatine Tuley’s Takes location office, we’re inactive trying to get determination successful assemblage football.
We had our 2nd consecutive 1-3 ATS week successful a enactment past Saturday, with losses connected Ole Miss +3½ astatine Florida, Texas A&M +8½ astatine LSU and South Carolina +12½ astatine Alabama. Fortunately, we won with Stanford +3½ vs. Georgia Tech successful a 34-27 location upset successful a precocious West Coast game, avoiding a implicit catastrophe and ending connected a winning note.
VSiN, The Sports Betting Network
We ever “go to school” connected our results each week to spot what we did close and hopefully besides effort to larn from wherever we went wrong. I conjecture the evident lessons are to effort to find much unrecorded location underdogs, arsenic our lone location canine was the lone victory, and possibly debar the SEC (which the archetypal 3 losses besides had successful common), arsenic it conscionable looks similar the affluent support getting richer successful this epoch of the transportation portal and NIL.
Let’s spot if we tin use immoderate of that to the CFB Week 5 Saturday paper with our “dog oregon pass” plays.
Stanford (+14) astatine Wake Forest
Staying distant from the SEC (at slightest for this week), we find ourselves backmost connected our lone CFB Week 4 winner, Stanford, which earned its archetypal ACC triumph implicit Georgia Tech and present travels to Wake Forest. We person a bully QB matchup present with Wake’s Gio Lopez, but Stanford’s Davis Warren threw for 396 yards successful the comeback triumph implicit Tech and faces a Demon Deacon defence that allows opposing QBs to implicit 80 percent of their passes. Coupled with the Cardinal crushed game, that should assistance america enactment wrong 2 TDs.
Best bet: Stanford +14
Michigan astatine Minnesota (+6)
We had to find a location dog, and this 1 jumped disconnected the betting board. The Golden Gophers fto maine down 3 weeks agone arsenic location dogs vs. Mississippi State, but they bounced backmost to bushed Akron of the MAC arsenic expected, past pulled disconnected an unexpected upset astatine Washington arsenic 12½-point underdogs to get backmost to 3-1.
That’s besides Michigan’s record, though the Wolverines person arrived astatine it a small much unconventionally, arsenic we each know, with the arguable Second Hail Mary to bushed Western Michigan of the MAC and past a nonaccomplishment connected the last play of the crippled to Iowa past week. They could (and immoderate accidental should) beryllium 2-2.
Minnesota’s defence is conscionable arsenic bully arsenic Michigan’s, which besides has been unspeakable defending the reddish portion and has committed excessively galore penalties, and neither discourtesy is peculiarly explosive. So this should beryllium a close, comparatively low-scoring crippled (the over/under is conscionable 43½ points).
This enactment opened astatine Michigan -8½, which I privation I had grabbed, but I inactive judge we’re connected the close broadside astatine thing much than a tract goal.
Best bet: Minnesota +6
Washington (+9½) astatine No. 18 USC
Sticking successful the Big Ten (which inactive pains maine to constitute with these 2 caller additions, longtime Pac-12 members and Rose Bowl rivals of Big Ten teams), Washington visits Southern Cal.
The Huskies started the play ranked No. 17 but dropped retired of the apical 25 aft a 24-10 triumph implicit Washington State and a 16-14 triumph implicit Utah State of the Mountain West. They routed Eastern Washington 48-16 but past mislaid the aforementioned 27-24 crippled to Minnesota arsenic 12½-point favorites.
But I similar the Huskies to bounce backmost present successful the underdog relation against USC, which is coming disconnected its archetypal nonaccomplishment of the season, a 41-27 setback to Oregon. I deliberation that took immoderate of the swagger retired of the antecedently undefeated Trojans.
I’m besides fading the USC defence here, which allowed 289 passing yards and 4 touchdowns successful the nonaccomplishment to Oregon, and that was aft knocking retired prima starting QB Dante Moore. Washington stays successful this the full way, and I’ll adjacent instrumentality a small astatine +300 connected the wealth line.
Best bet: Washington +9½
Texas State astatine San Diego State (+8)
Looking for 1 much location underdog, I recovered the Aztecs. This enactment was Texas State -4½ successful this Pac-12 matchup (yes, this is your caller Pac-12), but it was up to -8 connected Thursday.
The opening enactment made sense, arsenic Texas State (2-2) has turned its play astir aft an 0-2 commencement (with understandable losses to Texas and UTSA) with expected wins implicit North Texas and Incarnate Word. Meanwhile, San Diego State (1-3) has mislaid 3 consecutive to UCLA, James Madison and Toledo, and besides has mislaid its apical 2 moving backs.
But the enactment determination is owed to a mumps outbreak successful the Aztecs’ locker room. SDSU is mostly keeping mum (sorry) connected details, citing HIPAA and privateness concerns, arsenic we usually spot with the deficiency of assemblage wounded reports.
I’ve seen akin cases implicit the years wherever the marketplace overreacts to quality similar this, and the steadfast starters and reserves usually measurement up to play for their fallen teammates. Of course, if we perceive the Aztecs can’t tract a competitory team, we won’t spell up with the stake connected Saturday night, but it’s much apt we’re getting a fewer bonus points here.
Best bet: San Diego State +8
English (US)·