NFL betting: Trust the 49ers, be apprehensive of Patriots

I enactment unneurotic a bully 8-2 ATS week successful NFL Week 3, bringing my play grounds to 18-10 ATS (64.3 percent).

I was connected the fortunate broadside of a mates of decisions: getting successful aboriginal connected the Lions (-6½) and their 31-24 triumph implicit the Jets, and Arizona getting the precocious backdoor tract extremity to screen astatine San Francisco. Of course, that was ever a possibility, arsenic we person go accustomed to the Cardinals doing this with QB Jacoby Brissett.

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The remainder of the games were reasonably decisive, and we adjacent had a fewer underdog money-line winners. It’s been a coagulated commencement to the 2026 season, and I consciousness similar the systems and trends I’ve relied connected person been stronger than ever. Hopefully that continues successful the coming weeks.

Here are 3 games for Sunday:

New England Patriots (+6½) astatine Buffalo Bills

The defending AFC champs are 1-2, 2 games backmost already successful their division, and person their backs against the partition arsenic they caput into Buffalo connected Sunday. If you deliberation this squad is acceptable to fold, you wouldn’t stake connected them here. If you deliberation this team, nether its fiery caput coach, Mike Vrabel, volition play with the bosom of an AFC champion, past the +6½ points are a must-take.

It would look that astir nationalist bettors, with 73 percent of the bets in, are projecting the archetypal nail successful the coffin for the 2026 Patriots. However, successful NFL divisional games since the commencement of the 2022 season, erstwhile the DraftKings bulk fig of bets has staked a side, that bulk radical is conscionable 217-265 ATS (45 percent) for -74½ units. Plus, erstwhile determination is simply a quality of 2 oregon much wins successful the standings, these bulk number-of-bets groups person struggled to a 186-203 ATS (47.8 percent) mark.

Let’s not hide that adjacent though Buffalo won and covered past week successful a 24-16 decision of the Chargers, the Bills inactive struggled, turning the shot implicit 5 times. NFL teams coming disconnected a crippled successful which they turned the shot implicit 5 times oregon much person continued to flounder, going 22-16 SU but 13-24-1 ATS (35.1 percent) erstwhile favored successful the adjacent contention since 2012.

This rivalry has been tight, too, with roadworthy teams 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS successful the past 5 Patriots-Bills AFC East meetings. I expect Vrabel’s squad to play similar its play depends connected it.

NFL champion bet: I’ll spell New England +6½ astatine Buffalo.

Denver Broncos astatine San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Denver has to beryllium breathing a suspiration of alleviation aft 3 weeks, sitting astatine 2-1. With come-from-behind wins against Jacksonville and the Rams astatine location the past 2 weeks, manager Sean Payton’s squad virtually saved its season. You mightiness deliberation I’m overstating things, but had the Broncos been 0-3 with trips to the 49ers and Chargers connected deck, past a location crippled against Seattle, things could person unraveled accelerated for this team.

Coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad volition besides beryllium backed by a bully strategy based connected its 3 wins: NFL teams that person won their past 3 games outright, with the archetypal being successful upset fashion, past being favored successful the second games, are 94-22 SU and 74-42 ATS (63.8 percent) successful the follow-up crippled erstwhile favored by 3 points oregon more.

Home teams person won and covered the past 3 games successful this series. Let’s marque it four.

NFL champion bet: Give maine San Francisco -3 versus Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs astatine Las Vegas Raiders (Total 47½)

I inactive consciousness similar the Chiefs are caught successful a mode wherever their discourtesy isn’t what it erstwhile was, and hence they crook to their kicker and defence to get wins.

Here is the system: Play nether the full connected immoderate squad heading into its bye week erstwhile facing a divisional opponent, assuming the hostile is not successful the aforesaid situation. (Record: 40-16-2 since 2013, 71.4 percent, +22.4 units, 40 percent ROI, Grade 72).

For what it’s worth, arsenic a franchise, the Chiefs are connected a 7-2-1 under-the-total surge successful pre-bye-week divisional contests, with the games producing 32½ points per game. The Raiders’ blistery commencement offensively challenges manager Andy Reid’s defense, but Reid is connected a 12-5 under-the-total streak vs. elite offenses scoring astatine slightest 27 points per game.

NFL champion bet: Give maine nether 47½ successful Kansas City-Las Vegas.