College football by the odds: National semifinals picks and preview

The overwhelming majority of analysts appear to be calling for an Miami vs. Indiana College Football Playoff national championship game Jan. 19 in Miami.

Sentiment in the betting market is a lot more split.

The odds, in fact, imply around a 62% percent chance that either the Hurricanes or Hoosiers get upset in the national semifinals on Thursday or Friday, respectively. There’s even a nonnegligible 14% probability that Ole Miss, which plays Miami on Thursday in Glendale, Ariz., and Oregon, which faces Indiana on Friday in Atlanta, upend the entire plan and play each other for the crystal trophy.

Both Miami and Indiana are 3.5-point favorites entering the games, but that’s subject to change — and it has been, a lot.

There’s been heavy interest on both sides in both games.

Indiana initially opened at the -3.5 price but got bought up to as high as an extra-juiced -4.5 in Las Vegas sportsbooks. Oregon then took money as available limits raised with kickoff drawing closer.

Miami has similarly been anywhere from a 2.5- to a 3.5-point favorite with apparent warring factions going head-to-head on opposite sides the all-important key number of -3. A field goal is mostly where the spread for Miami versus Ole Miss has settled, but a few sportsbooks have stayed steady at 3.5.

The split opinions should make for electric atmospheres in sports books around town, and hopefully a couple memorable games.

Read below for my handicaps on both games. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record picking every game for the season stands at 391-339-17 (115-98-7 on plays, 140-108-8 on leans and 136-133-5 on guesses) after going 9-2-1 in the last entry.        

Fiesta Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Thursday in Glendale, Ariz. on ESPN: Miami -3.5 vs. Ole Miss, over/under: 52. Miami’s defense has been awesome through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Miami’s offense has been awful through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Figuring out how to resolve those two extremes is the primary challenge of handicapping the first national semifinal game.

 “Awful” might be harsh especially as it pertains to Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher, who’s broken out with 262 rushing yards on 36 carries against two strong defenses in Texas A&M and Ohio State. Miami didn’t have much of a run game all year, but Texas A&M’s Achilles heel was its rush defense. That was also an area where Ohio State was also slightly more vulnerable. And now comes Ole Miss, which ranks 132^nd in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play defense against the rush per gameonpaper.com.

Fletcher should be set up for another big day, but will it be enough? The Rebels’ offense has encountered some ups and downs throughout the course of the season, but it’s undeniably one of the most explosive units in the nation with slippery and spectacular quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at the helm. Miami edge rushers Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor will surely be able to disrupt Chambliss more frequently than first-round opponents Tulane, which were undermanned, and Georgia, which had a mediocre pass rush all season.

But no one has been able to completely shut Chambliss and his deep core of receivers down. When Chambliss inevitably strikes with a big play, can Miami answer? Quarterback Carson Beck’s 5.2 yards per attempt and mediocre QBR through the first two rounds of the playoff don’t inspire a lot of confidence.  

Miami has also been +2 in turnover margin in both games to flip results that could have otherwise gone either way. That’s fickle, and not something to rely on to keep advancing. Miami may just mow Ole Miss over at the line of scrimmage, but the latter has just as large of an edge around the rest of the field. The line therefore shouldn’t be higher than a field goal.  Lean: Ole Miss +3.5.

Peach Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Friday in Atlanta on ESPN: Oregon +3.5 vs. Indiana, over/under: 46.5. Oregon opened a 9.5-point favorite over Indiana ahead of these teams’ Week 7 matchup at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. The Ducks never came close to covering that number, or the closing 7.5-point line, but the Hoosiers far from outclassed them as many seem to be claiming in hindsight.

It could be argued that the 30-20 final score in favor of Indiana was misleading considering the game was tied midway through the fourth quarter with two late scores tilting victory in the Hoosiers’ direction. A 13-point line move in the same matchup two months later, even one that accounts going from home field to a neutral site, should provide pause to even the most convicted Indiana supporters.

That’s particularly true because the Ducks are better now. The youngest team remaining in the field, Oregon always figured to develop more as the season went on. But, more importantly, they're better now because they are healthier. Oregon’s injury report is relatively clean after spending most of the season as one of the lengthiest lists in the league while Indiana now seems to be dipping into its depth more. The most notable absence in the game might be defensive tackle Stephen Daley, who suffered a freak injury after the Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State.

Of course, playing without him didn’t seem to be an issue in Indiana’s 38-3 demolishing of Alabama as 7.5-point favorites in the quarterfinal Rose Bowl. Hurdles have regularly sprung up ahead of Indiana in the last two seasons, and it’s almost always cleared them including from a betting sense as it’s 18-9 against the spread since coach Curt Cignetti arrived.

Cignetti’s betting wizardry stretches farther back as he was a profit machine in two seasons at James Madison despite the program having just moved up to the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Overpowering reasons must exist to bet against Cignetti right now. The two-touchdown point-spread swing in this matchup and Oregon’s uptick come close, but aren’t quite enough. Indiana may just merit every power-rating adjustment it’s gotten. Lean: Indiana -3.5.