College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 0 game

UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas (9) runs a drill during practice at UNLV Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025. Photo by: Steve Marcus

UNLV is the biggest favorite on the board for college football’s opening day.

Sure, there are only five total games as part of this year’s “Week 0” slate, and the Rebels are taking on the lone Football Championship Subdivision representative in Idaho State, but the 24.5-point line remains telling. It can be seen as a testament to how far the local program has come.

Ten years ago when these same two teams lined up against each other, UNLV was only a 10.5-point favorite. That contest, which the Rebels ended up winning 80-8, was also buried deep amid a full schedule of games across the nation.

Today’s 1 p.m. kickoff at Allegiant Stadium should provide more of a showcase opportunity for a program that’s suddenly considered one of the best among the Football Bowl Subdivision’s Group of Five conferences. Idaho State at UNLV was moved up to today to accommodate the fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence “Bud” Crawford on Sept. 13, but the Rebels are reaping added bonuses in terms of visibility.  

It's in a standalone spot, airing locally on Silver State Sports Network, and it figures to draw a torrent of betting action.   

Given all those factors, I’m making an exception in the first edition of the annual college football pick’em and including it. This column will typically only feature games between two FBS teams but UNLV’s opener merits special treatment.

Read below to find my point-spread handicap of Idaho State at UNLV as well as the other four games going down today. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Las Vegas. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Pressure is high coming off the best season in the history of the pick’em as last year’s record finished at 439-339-9 (157-118 on plays, 138-107-2 on leans and 144-114-3 on guesses).

Iowa State +3 vs. Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, over/under: 49.5. The Cyclones defeated the Wildcats 29-21 as a 2-point home favorite in last November’s regular-season finale, but the latter outplayed the former with a near 2-net-yard-per-play advantage in the game. The difference was Iowa State recovering all three of the game’s fumbles. That luck is unlikely to carry overseas, especially with the Wildcats returning more impact players and having the more complete roster. Play: Kansas State -3.

Idaho State +24.5 at UNLV, over/under: 64.5. The Scarlet and Gray have defeated the Bengals by an average of 49 points per game in three previous meetings over the last two decades. And the talent discrepancy should be larger now than in any of those previous iterations. Idaho State might be a little better, but UNLV is a lot better. Believe the hometown hype. Play: UNLV -24.5.

Fresno State +12.5 at Kansas, over/under: 51. Fresno State has gotten a lot of respect in the betting market over the summer. Steady juice has added to its over/under 6.5 season win total, and its Mountain West Conference future odds have even dropped to as low as 6-to-1, but it all feels a bit premature. Former North Dakota State coach Matt Entz might have been a strong hire, but he’s attempting to radically change the program’s identity. That usually takes time. Kansas has holes, but quarterback Jalon Daniels should be by far the biggest difference-maker on the field. Lean: Kansas -12.5.

Sam Houston +11 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 61.5. The Hilltoppers sat as low as a 7.5-point favorite for weeks before bets started flooding in on them. I kept telling myself +10.5 would be the buy point on the Bearkats, yet I haven’t been able to fully commit to taking the points. Both teams have experienced massive roster turnover and enter the season largely as unknowns other than the fact that they want to push the pace. The best play therefore might be over 61.5 points. Lean: Sam Houston +11.

Stanford +1.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 51. Locals should know firsthand about the impact Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado can wreak. The former Bishop Gorman star is one of the most decorated prep athletes in state history. He’s going to torment a Cardinal secondary that ranked 121^st in the nation last year in giving up 8.6 yards per pass play and somehow now looks worse on paper. Making this a “play” might be a reach considering the Warriors were underdogs for much of the summer, but it’s the start of football season. Let’s come out swinging.  Play: Hawaii -1.5.