College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 2 game

Three of the four biggest games of college football’s Week 1 ended with an outright upset.

All three of those results contributed to making the ACC race suddenly looking more intriguing. The ACC came into the season with the largest favorite among the power conferences.

That’s still the case but the margin is diminishing. Clemson went from as low as -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) to win the conference to as high as +150 (i.e. risking $100 to win $150) after losing 17-10 to LSU as 5-point favorites.

Victories by Miami, 27-24 over Notre Dame as 3-point underdogs, and Florida State, 31-17 over Alabama as 14-point underdogs, accelerated the shift. The Tigers might have more top-tier competition than initially thought.

The Seminoles were the big movers, going from as high as 35-to-1 to win the ACC to as low as +650. Miami’s drop was more measured, going from as high as +450 to as low as 3-to-1.

One game per team can be misleading but the margin of Clemson’s final score looks short if anything compared to how thoroughly LSU outplayed it. Florida State and Miami, meanwhile, were perhaps even more dominant against perceived national championship contenders.

The Tigers have won the ACC in eight of the past 10 years but maybe a pair of revitalized one-time national powers can provide some resistance this year. Two other ACC hopefuls, SMU and Duke, play premier home non-conference games as highlights of the Week 2 slate.

Read below to find my handicap of those games and the other 48 contests on the board between Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at a disappointing 24-27 (9-13 on plays, 11-7 on leans and 4-7 on guesses).

Top Games

Illinois -3 at Duke, over/under: 50. The point spread looks exactly right, but Week 1 provided countless examples of hyped teams like Illinois looking more flawed than expected when playing on the road. Duke’s roster is not at a major disadvantage as it upgraded with Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah this offseason and a slew of weapons around him. Guess: Duke +3

Baylor +2.5 at SMU, over/under: 65. The betting market appears to be wildly in love with the Bears. After late steam led to them closing a slight favorite over Auburn at some sports books last week and not living up to it in a 38-24 loss, the early-week returns here are similar. SMU has dipped under a 3-point favorite despite having the more well-rounded roster, signaling a possible buy point. Lean: SMU -2.5.

Iowa +3 at Iowa State, over/under: 41.5. Sell high on the Cyclones after they got outplayed in Ireland against Kansas State but escaped with a 24-21 victory, and then bullied a rebuilding South Dakota team back on home soil. The Hawkeyes have been preparing more exclusively for this rivalry showdown with prized South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski poised for a breakout. Play: Iowa +3.

Ole Miss -10 at Kentucky, over/under: 52.5. The Wildcats notoriously stunned the Rebels early last year 20-17 as a 17-point underdog. But Ole Miss doesn’t seem to have dropped off much, and could potentially be better, while Kentucky could be even worse. A line shortened by a touchdown from last year therefore feels over-aggressive. Revenge narratives are overused and not particularly useful, but this might be one situation where it matters considering last year’s embarrassment against Kentucky ultimately kept Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff. Play: Ole Miss -10.

Kansas +5.5 at Missouri, over/under: 51. This is a long-overdue revival of a heated rivalry that had been discontinued for 14 years but it might be coming at an inopportune time for Kansas. The Jayhawks are inexperienced and not particularly athletic on defense, which should make it difficult to keep up with Tigers’ mobile quarterback Beau Pribula. Missouri should be laying at least a touchdown. Play: Missouri -5.5.

South Florida +17 at Florida, over/under: 54. South Florida deserved the first-rate upset over Boise State last week, but the 34-7 final tally was a bit flattering considering the latter made numerous mistakes including losing all three of its fumbles. A loaded and experienced Florida team used to the blistering humidity should be sharper. As long as the Gators stay healthy, they are contenders and undervalued by the market. Play: Florida -17.

Arizona State -7 at Mississippi State, over/under: 58.5. The Bulldogs were a mess at this time a year ago as coach Jeff Lebby attempted to makeover the program, and they still only lost by seven points at Arizona State as 7-point underdogs. It makes no sense that they’re now the same price playing at home with a much-improved roster that features some explosiveness courtesy of now-healthy quarterback Blake Shapen and big-time transfer running back Fluff Bothwell. Play: Mississippi State +7.

Michigan +6 at Oklahoma, over/under: 46. The Sooners opened as a 3-point favorite at as low as -140 on the moneyline, but bettors gobbled up those prices immediately. It was for good reason, though a shame that the point spread is now in the right place. Michigan’s long-term outlooks might be brightening, but it’s too much to ask for an 18-year-old quarterback Bryce Underwood to lead his team in his first career road game in this raucous of an environment. Lean: Oklahoma -6.

Top Plays

Central Michigan +21 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 52. These aren’t the old days of Pat Narduzzi-led Panther football where they’d spend half the game running the ball and draining the clock. Pittsburgh now plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation, maximizing chances to extend leads against lesser opponents. The Panthers also sat 10^th in the nation last season in giving up only 3.2 yards per rush attempt, meaning they have more enough to slow the new-look Chippewas’ ground-based attack. Play: Pittsburgh -21.

Liberty -5.5 at Jacksonville State, over/under: 51.5. The Gamecocks are getting a bump in the market from their somewhat-impressive 17-10 loss to UCF as 20.5-point underdogs in Week 1 and their status as defending Conference USA champions. But virtually no one is back from last year’s team, and the Knights are in a similar rebuilding season so keeping it close wasn’t all that admirable. Play: Liberty -5.5.

UAB +21.5 at Navy, over/under: 59.5. UAB is getting dinged from its 52-42 near-loss to Football Championship Subdivision opponent Alabama State, but there’s a good chance it was already looking ahead to this American Athletic Conference opener in training camp. The Blazers drew praise for their hire of former Air Force assistant Steve Russ as defensive coordinator and, if there’s a spot where he could be particularly useful, it should be against a heavily familiar service-academy foe. Play: UAB +21.5.

Houston -11.5 at Rice, over/under: 39.5. New coach Scott Abell got off to a strong start of his program teardown process by leading Rice to a 14-12 victory over Louisiana as 11.5-point underdogs. But Houston’s Willie Fritz is now in year two of a similar process, meaning the talent discrepancy on these two rosters is even more magnified than usual. Play: Houston -11.5.

Vanderbilt pick’em at Virginia Tech, over/under: 47.5. This number moved three points following Virginia Tech’s 24-11 loss to South Carolina as 7-point underdogs on Sunday. That’s harsh considering the Hokies were still in the game until late. Their offense was rough, but they appeared to be much more formidable on defense and shouldn’t let Diego Pavia trounce them for a second straight year. Play: Virginia Tech pick’em.

Tulsa -3.5 at New Mexico State, over/under: 52.5. This spread climbed up 1.5 points, over a key number, presumably from the positive momentum out of Tulsa’s season-opening 35-7 win over Abilene Christian as 5.5-point favorites. But Abilene Christian lost most of its team to Western Kentucky with departed offensive coordinator Rick Bowie. These are still two of the worst Football Bowl Subdivision teams, and the home team should therefore never be this large of an underdog. Play: New Mexico State +3.5.

Other Games

Play: Michigan State -3 vs. Boston College

Play: West Virginia -3 at Ohio

Play: Texas A&M -29 vs. Utah State

Play: Rutgers -14 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Play: UNLV +2.5 vs. UCLA

Lean: Toledo -6.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Lean: Washington State -1.5 vs. San Diego State

Lean: South Alabama +10.5 vs. Tulane

Lean: North Texas -9.5 at Western Michigan

Lean: Arkansas State +23.5 vs. Arkansas

Lean: Texas -36 vs. San Jose State

Lean: Oregon -28 vs. Oklahoma State

Lean: James Madison +15 at Louisville

Lean: Penn State -41.5 vs. Florida International

Lean: Georgia Southern +28.5 at USC

Lean: Oregon State -2.5 vs. Fresno State

Lean: Colorado -23.5 vs. Delaware

Lean: Kansas State -16.5 vs. Army

Lean: Louisiana Tech +38 at LSU

Guess: Georgia State +14 vs. Memphis

Guess: Stanford +18.5 at BYU

Guess: Middle Tennessee +28.5 at Wisconsin

Guess: Ball State +43.5 at Auburn

Guess: Kent State +48.5 at Texas Tech

Guess: Northern Illinois +18 at Maryland

Guess: Troy +33 at Clemson

Guess: Syracuse -6.5 vs. Connecticut

Guess: UTSA -4.5 vs. Texas State

Guess: Virginia +3 at NC State

Guess: Bowling Green +20.5 at Cincinnati

Guess: Missouri State +10 at Marshall

Guess: UL Monroe +38 at Alabama

Guess: Hawaii -8.5 vs. Sam Houston

Guess: Nebraska -34 vs. Akron

Guess: Charlotte +21 vs. North Carolina

Guess: Kennesaw State +36 at Indiana