College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 10

Texas quarterback Arch Manning came into the season as the consensus Heisman Trophy favorite, and immediately failed to look the part.

Manning’s tumble down the odds board began in his debut, a 14-7 Texas loss at Ohio State as 1.5-point favorites where he looked overmatched.  

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier momentarily took over at the top of the market, but a similar fate befell him. The Tigers’ offense has tanked so badly that coach Brian Kelly was fired Sunday despite a $54 million buyout.   

Nussmeier and Manning have fallen off to the point that they are no longer among the 30 players listed in the Heisman futures market at Circa Sports.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Miami quarterback Carson Beck are in the group but not given much of a realistic shot at 47- and 90-to-1, respectively. They are the latest pair of passers who reached favorite status before plummeting with ineffective performances that led to losses.

Many have suggested that becoming the Heisman frontrunner is a cursed situation this season. Last week put a little damper in that theory, as Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson entered as co-favorites and mostly delivered.

Mendoza accounted for four touchdowns in a 56-6 beatdown of previously-hot UCLA as 26-point favorites. Simpson rallied the Crimson Tide to a victory in the final minute, escaping South Carolina’s upset bid 29-22 as 12.5-point favorites.

Mendoza is now the +240 (i.e. risking $100 to win $240) favorite to win the Heisman with Simpson close behind at +325. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+425), Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (+525) and Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed (+850) consist of the next group.

None of those five players have the statistical profile that would typically merit the Heisman though. It's been considered a quarterback award in the modern era, but that might be changing.

The voters gladly latched on to two-non quarterbacks last year, eventual winner Travis Hunter and remarkably-close runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Maybe there’s a candidate that can capture that imagination this year in Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, who’s  coming off a 228-yard rushing performance in a 34-24 win against USC as 10-point favorites.

Love has an ideal remaining schedule of four games against mediocre rush defenses meaning he can pile on the eye-popping production. He’s 18-to-1 at Circa but as high as 25-to-1 elsewhere — the best current bet to make in the Heisman market.

The quarterbacks might be cursed this year, but hopefully not the nation’s best running back.

Read below for my picks on every Week 10 game in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 196-195-10 (61-62-4 on plays, 68-60-4 on leans and 70-73-2 on guesses.

Big Games

Penn State +21 at Ohio State, over/under: 43.5. Even without injured quarterback Drew Allar, who had majorly underperformed anyway, this line is too high if judging strictly from a talent perspective. It’s hard to trust Penn State right now, but also difficult to see either team pulling away in what projects as a low-scoring slugfest. Guess: Penn State +21.

Vanderbilt +1.5 at Texas, over/under: 44.5. The market has come in heavy against Texas with the likelihood that Manning will be sidelined with a concussion. But is journeyman Matthew Caldwell really set to be that much of a downgrade? A counterpoint to provide some hesitation: Attempting to buy low on the Longhorns has been an avenue to bankruptcy so far this year. Lean: Texas -1.5.

Miami -12.5 at SMU, over/under: 51. Rumblings of SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings’ diminished injury state proved correct in a feeble 13-12 loss at Wake Forest as 5-point underdogs last week but it’s not like Beck has been rolling lately either. The Mustangs have improved defensively this season, perhaps enough to keep this one close. Lean: SMU +12.5.

Georgia  -7 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, over/under: 50.5. Georgia’s offense has been trending up the past few weeks. Florida’s defensive line is among the best in the country but there are frequently too many holes in the secondary that Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton could exploit. Gators interim coach Billy Gonzales is a major unknown, leaving too much uncertainty on the underdog. Play: Georgia -7.

Texas Tech -7.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 53.5. The Red Raiders have shown they’re more than capable of obliterating any Big 12 opponent, but the resurgent Wildcats might have a better chance than most to hang with the visitors through sheer physicality. The prospects of Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton returning from injury at less than 100% after an injury to backup Will Hammond should have kept this spread at -7. Guess: Kansas State +7.5.

Oklahoma +3 at Tennessee, over/under: 56.5. The Sooners deserved a better fate than last week’s 34-26 loss hosting Ole Miss as 5-point favorites by the underlying numbers, including allowing less than five yards per play. Oklahoma’s offense is mediocre at best, but Tennessee’s defense has yielded season-high days to practically every opponent it’s faced. Play: Oklahoma +3.

USC -7 at Nebraska, over/under: 59.5. It might be sophomoric analysis but the Trojans have simply not been the same team away from the Coliseum in recent years, having failed to cover in seven of their last 10 games on the road. Nebraska has failed to cover in five straight games overall in but the slide has diminished its rating to a buy point. Play: Nebraska +7.

Cincinnati +9 at Utah, over/under: 56. Cincinnati has overachieved so it’s no surprise Utah has taken big money after this point spread opened as low as -7. There still might be some room left for a bet as the Utes should be a 10-point favorite with big-play running back Wayshawn Parker and friends capable of weaponizing an athletic advantage in this matchup. Lean: Utah -9.

Big Plays

Navy +5.5 at North Texas, over/under: 66. Navy sits at the top of the packed American Athletic Conference race at the moment but it might be a fake contender considering it’s feasted on a weak schedule. The Midshipmen’s defense hasn’t seen a quarterback anywhere near as surgical as the Mean Green’s big-armed Drew Mestemaker. Play: North Texas -5.5.

Notre Dame -28 at Boston College, over/under: 56. It’s not just Love drawing me to the Fighting Irish. I’ve backed them three straight games in this column and they haven’t failed to cover yet. Why stop? Boston College is one of the worst power-conference teams and got outgained by more than 4 yards per play in a 38-24 loss to Louisville last week that was a lot uglier than the score. Play: Notre Dame -28.  

Michigan State +3 at Minnesota, over/under: 44.5. Yes, let’s jump on the chance to back a Golden Gophers’ team that lost 41-3 as 7.5-point underdogs at Iowa last week. But this line would have been closer to a touchdown before that performance, and all is not well in East Lansing, Mich., either with fans calling for coach Jonathan Smith’s job after five consecutive losses. Play: Minnesota -3.

Arizona -5.5 at Colorado, over/under: 52.5. No one wants to touch the Buffaloes off a 53-6 loss to Utah as 14-point underdogs last week, but this is a much fairer fight personnel-wise. I’ve cashed four straight bets on Colorado games in this section and will go back again hoping it's because of a strong read on this team more than blind variance. Play: Colorado +5.5.

Kentucky +10 at Auburn, over/under: 45.5. Former Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels is an upgrade from former Oklahoma quarterback/previous starter Jackson Arnold at Auburn. Kentucky has the worst roster in the SEC and doesn’t have the depth to hold up now midway through a taxing SEC schedule. Play: Auburn -10.

Arkansas State +7.5 at Troy, over/under: 52.5. Red Wolves quarterback Jalen Raynor is putting on a show on a weekly basis with his dual-threat ability and should be able to take over against a mediocre Trojans’ defense. Troy’s undefeated Sun Belt Conference record is misleading considering it’s gotten every break in going 3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and that luck is bound to regress at some point. Play: Arkansas State +7.5. 5.

Other Games

Play: Virginia -3.5 at California

Play: Memphis -14 at Rice

Play: Tulane -3.5 at UTSA

Play: Ole Miss -12 vs. South Carolina

Play: Michigan -21 vs. Purdue

Play: Texas State +7.5 vs. James Madison

Play: Western Michigan -4.5 vs. Central Michigan

Play: Louisiana Tech -16.5 vs. Sam Houston

Play: Liberty -3 vs. Delaware

Lean: Syracuse -1.5 vs. North Carolina

Lean: Middle Tennessee +6.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Lean: Western Kentucky -8.5 vs. New Mexico State

Lean: UL Monroe +17 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Pittsburgh -14 at Stanford

Lean: Coastal Carolina +5.5 vs. Marshall

Lean: New Mexico +6 at UNLV

Lean: Houston -13 vs. West Virginia

Lean: Florida State -8 vs. Wake Forest

Lean: South Alabama -4 vs. Louisiana

Lean: Bowling Green -1.5 vs. Buffalo

Lean: UTEP +10 at Kennesaw State

Lean: San Diego State -10 vs. Wyoming

Lean: UCF +5 at Baylor

Lean: Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State

Lean: Indiana -21.5 at Maryland

Lean: Air Force +1 vs. Army

Guess: Kansas -24.5 vs. Oklahoma State

Guess: San Jose State -2 vs. Hawaii

Guess: Duke +3.5 at Clemson

Guess: Arkansas -4.5 vs. Mississippi State

Guess: Virginia Tech +11.5 vs. Louisville

Guess: Boise State -17.5 vs. Fresno State

Guess: East Carolina -4.5 at Temple

Guess: Washington State -3.5 at Oregon State

Guess: Rutgers +13 at Illinois

Guess: Iowa State -5.5 vs. Arizona State

Guess: UAB +11.5 at Connecticut

Guess: Florida International +4 at Missouri State