College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 3

Betting odds gave South Florida as low as a 4% chance to start the season 2-0 going up against one of the nation’s strongest strengths of schedule to open the year.

The Bulls pulled off a mild surprise in Week 1, downing Boise State 34-7 as closing 5-point underdogs, before following it with a shocker on Saturday — defeating Florida 18-16 as closing 18-point favorites.

They’re now co-favorites to earn the Group of Five’s automatic bid into the College Football Playoff with American Athletic Conference rival Tulane at odds of +450 (i.e. risking $100 to win $450).

The Green Wave has been towards the top since the odds posted, but South Florida was as high as 50-to-1 to reach the playoff going into the season.

There’s not one reason that explains how they’ve become a contender; it’s because they’re a well-rounded team. Senior quarterback Byrum Brown returned from a broken leg that forced him to miss most of last season but seems to have only gotten better.

They’ve got Power Conference-worthy defense led by potential All-American linebacker Mac Harris. Oh, and up-and-coming coach Alex Golesh has full confidence in kicker Nico Gramatica, the son of former NFL standout Martin Gramatica, to make field goals as long as 60 yards.

This week, South Florida follows knocking off Florida by going for a de facto state championship at Miami — it unfortunately doesn’t face Florida State this season. If its first two games are any indication, South Florida won’t be a walkover for Miami.   

Read below to find my handicap of that game and all the other matchups between Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this weekend. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 50-50-1 (17-20-1 on plays, 19-15 on leans and 14-15 on guesses).

Top Games

Clemson -4.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 52. The Tigers got themselves int an epic struggle before eking out a 27-16 win over Troy as a 30.5-point favorite last week while the Yellow Jackets sat some starters for rest including quarterback Haynes King in a 59-12 laugher over Gardner-Webb. It’s difficult enough to get to this high of a spread statistically, but the spot also favors the home team. Play: Georgia Tech +4.5.

Wisconsin +21 at Alabama, over/under: 46.5. There are a lot of red flags with the Badgers, headlined by losing quarterback Billy Edwards to injury and having to turn to Danny O’Neil. But paying a premium on Alabama right now seems unadvisable, especially with it getting gashed by the run in the Week 1 loss to Florida State and Wisconsin going back to its ground-game roots. Lean: Wisconsin +21.

Georgia -3.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 50. Tennessee’s heralded defensive line has more than lived up to the hype through two weeks while Georgia’s offensive line has been a weakness while dealing with a cluster injury. That key matchup combined with Tennessee playing one of its biggest home games in years against a new-look Georgia team making its first trip is too much to ignore. Play: Tennessee +3.5.

South Florida +16 at Miami, over/under: 54.5. Receiver was Miami’s biggest position-group question, but it’s actually looked like a strength so far with the likes of freshman Malachi Toney and LSU transfer CJ Daniels. They look like a team without weakness, and could overwhelm a Bulls’ side that’s inferior talent-wise and worn down from two straight tough games. Guess: Miami -16.

Arkansas +8.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 62.5. The betting market seems to hate Ole Miss with money having now come in against it for three straight weeks. The Rebels beat the number in Week 1, 63-7 over Georgia State as 33-point favorites, but gave up a backdoor cover in Week 2’s 30-23 win over Kentucky as 8-point favorites. They still have as high of an upside as any team in the country, so buying the weekly dip feels like the way to go. Guess: Ole Miss -8.5.

Florida +8.5 at LSU, over/under: 49.5. The asking price might feel a little high at first glance but it’s hard to find a matchup where LSU doesn’t have an edge over Florida. If Tiger Stadium still has the mystique that some claim, then a 10-point win should be the expectation. Guess: LSU -8.5.

Texas A&M +7 at Notre Dame, over/under: 49. Both of these teams should be upgraded in power ratings with strong underlying metrics despite the Aggies starting 0-2 against the spread and Notre Dame getting upset in its showcase spot at Miami. They are fairly evenly-matched, solidly B-tier national championship contenders, meaning neither team should be a full touchdown favorite against the other.  Play: Texas A&M +7.

Vanderbilt +5.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 47.5.  Juxtaposing these two conference rivals’ fate against Virginia Tech — Vanderbilt embarrassed it 44-20 on the road while South Carolina was more in a grim 24-11 struggle on a neutral field — is tempting but doesn’t tell the full story. The Commodores were in a much better spot catching the Hokies off a short week. The Gamecocks crushed the Commodores 28-7 last year as a 6-point favorite on the road and shouldn’t be laying fewer points this year with the best player in the game, quarterback LaNorris Sellers, on their sideline. Play: South Carolina -5.5

Top Plays

USC -21.5 at Purdue, over/under: 58. The Trojans have looked unbelievable in leading the nation at 11.2 yards per play, but they’ve faced a pair of completely overmatched defenses in Missouri State and Georgia Southern. Purdue represents a step up if only because of former UNLV coach Barry Odom’s known ability as a defensive technician. Play: Purdue +21.5.

Appalachian State -1.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 53.5. This reeks of a major overreaction to one FBS game apiece from these Sun Belt Conference foes. The Eagles were hyped before a forgivable 34-17 loss to Mississippi State as 14-point underdogs while the Mountaineers are in all likelihood rebuilding and not as efficient as they were in a 34-11 win over Charlotte as 3-point favorites. Play: Southern Miss +1.5.

Utah -24 at Wyoming, over/under: 48.5. Selling high can’t always be comfortable. Utah has drawn as much buzz as any team in the nation given the progression fleet-footed new quarterback Devon Dampier has shown as a passer through two weeks. But War Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the nation given its elevation, and the Cowboys have started 2-0 straight-up and against the spread with signs of a more competent attack than last year. Play: Wyoming +24.

Navy -14 at Tulsa, over/under: 54. New Tulsa coach Tre Lamb might have been a strong hire, but he’s getting too much credit from the market in what remains a rebuilding project. Meanwhile, this is one of Navy’s stronger teams with few players in college football more compelling than quarterback Blake Horvath. Play: Navy -14.

Boston College -10.5 at Stanford, over/under: 44.5. The market annually has a tough time catching up price-wise to the teams truly at the bottom of the sport. At -1.2 net yards per play through a pair of games against Hawaii and BYU, Stanford might be historically poor for a power-conference team. Play: Boston College -10.5.

Texas State +15 at Arizona State, over/under: 58.5. The Bobcats bled talent in the offseason but seems to have hit on several replacements, notably including freshman quarterback Brad Jackson. Arizona State edged Texas State 31-28 as 2.5-point underdogs last year, but only after recovering three of the game’s four fumbles and getting outgained by more than 50 yards. Play: Texas State +15.

Other Games

Play: Memphis -4.5 at Troy

Play: Kent State +21.5 vs. Buffalo

Play: Tulane -3 vs. Duke

Lean: UAB -11 vs. Akron

Lean: Florida Atlantic +3 at Florida International

Lean: Jacksonville State +3.5 at Georgia Southern

Lean: Temple +25 vs. Oklahoma

Lean: Northwestern +28 vs. Oregon

Lean: South Alabama +25.5 at Auburn

Lean: California +2.5 vs. Minnesota

Lean: Virginia Tech -7 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Washington State +4.5 at North Texas

Lean: West Virginia +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Lean: Michigan -27.5 vs. Central Michigan

Lean: Ohio +33 at Ohio State

Lean: Missouri State +28.5 vs. SMU

Lean: Louisiana +27.5 at Missouri

Guess: Bowling Green +6.5 vs. Liberty

Guess: UTEP +42 at Texas

Guess: Oregon State +24.5 at Texas Tech

Guess: UCLA -15.5 vs. New Mexico

Guess: Coastal Carolina +7.5 vs. East Carolina

Guess: Delaware +10.5 vs. Connecticut

Guess: Arkansas State +21 vs. Iowa State

Guess: Kansas State +1.5 at Arizona

Guess: Wake Forest +7 vs. NC State

Guess: Kentucky -24.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: Houston -4.5 vs. Colorado

Guess: New Mexico State +10 at Louisiana Tech

Guess: UNR -8.5 vs. Middle Tennessee

Guess: Iowa -35 vs. Massachusetts

Guess: Western Michigan +28.5 at Illinois

Guess: Air Force -3.5 at Utah State