College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 5

Money poured in against Oregon ahead of its final game last season, and the flow never seemed to stop for months afterward.

Of all the country’s elite college football teams, Oregon’s future prices might have gone down the most ahead of this season kicking off in late August. The Ducks’ win total opened over/under 10.5 at most shops, but sat as low as 9.5 by the time they went off the board for Week 1.

Similarly, they went from as low as +225 (i.e. risking $100 to win $225) to win the Big Ten Conference for a second consecutive year to as high as 4-to-1. They climbed from as low as 7-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff to as high as 15-to-1.  

Doubting Oregon paid off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals last season, as it closed a 3-point underdog after opening a 1-point favorite to Ohio State before getting flattened 41-21 at the Rose Bowl.

But the skepticism hasn’t paid off so far this season. Oregon has been unstoppable in a 4-0 straight-up start to the season with a +166 point differential, sending its futures right back into their original range.

The Ducks are now as low as +250 to win the Big Ten and 6-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff.

They’re the top-ranked team in the nation by most publicly available set of power rankings, including both of ESPN’s efficiency-based metrics — the Football Power Index and the SP+ ratings — having them on top.

The first real test comes Saturday night when Oregon travels to Penn State as 3.5-point underdogs. Not surprisingly, that point spread also shows how far perception has come on the Ducks.

In August, the Ducks were a 7-point underdog to the Nittany Lions in Game of the Year lines.

Read below to find my handicap on Oregon at Penn State along with picks on the other 50 games between Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this weekend. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 99-98-1 (33-33-1 on plays, 34-30 on leans and 32-35 on guesses).

Big Games

Southern Cal -7.5 at Illinois, over/under: 59.5. The Trojans haven’t covered in a single game going east since they joined the Big Ten Conference last year, including in a lethargic 33-17 win over Purdue as 21-point favorites two weeks ago. The Illini have a cluster injury in the secondary, which is troublesome, but they might be the better team at the line of scrimmage. Play: Illinois +7.5.

Notre Dame -6 at Arkansas, over/under: 64.5. This is the ultimate test of numbers — the data wouldn’t indicate Arkansas should be this big of an underdog at home no matter how it’s manipulated — versus intuition — the thought that Notre Dame’s talent should overwhelm. I’m almost always going to let numbers ultimately win out, especially with a lethal offensive team like the Razorbacks that could always threaten for a backdoor cover if they fall behind. Lean: Arkansas +6.

Ohio State -8 at Washington, over/under: 52.5. The Huskies have everything they need to put a scare in the Buckeyes, led by an ascending dual-threat quarterback in Demond Williams Jr. and a big home-field advantage at Husky Stadium, where they’ve won 22 in a row. But this number was Ohio State -13.5 a week ago, and the visitors were on a bye while the Huskies pasted rival Washington State 59-24 as 21-point favorites. Nothing happened to merit this large of a line move, and paying a premium is not advisable. Guess: Ohio State -8.  

LSU +2 at Ole Miss, over/under: 55. This handicap all comes down to whether Rebels coach Lane Kiffin goes back to original starter Austin Simmons or sticks with Trinidad Chambliss, who’s been filling in while the former has been injured, at quarterback. Chambliss looks both more poised and explosive. He should retain the role. If he starts and Ole Miss continues to improve defensively, it has SEC championship level upside and would be worth a bet here. Guess: Ole Miss -2.

Auburn +6.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 52.5. Auburn arguably didn’t deserve to lose, or certainly not fail to cover, in a referee-assisted 24-17 collapse to Oklahoma as closing 6.5-point underdogs last week. It took a wild set of circumstances for Texas A&M to escape Notre Dame with a 41-40 victory as closing 6.5-point underdogs in its last game. Change either of those results, and this number is closer to a field goal. The truth lies somewhere in between. Lean: Auburn +6.5.

Indiana -7 at Iowa, over/under: 49.5. The number looks just about right, but it doesn’t take a football film guru to see Indiana’s firepower should create problems for the more methodical Iowa side. The Hoosiers also had the second-best rush defense in the Big Ten last year, giving up only 2.9 yards per carry behind only eventual national champion Ohio State, and the Hawkeyes still mostly keep their offense grounded. Guess: Indiana -7.

Oregon +3.5 at Penn State, over/under: 52.5. Penn State has been entirely unimpressive in starting the season 0-3 against the spread. There’s a chance the Nittany Lions have just kept their approach vanilla in preparation for this megaclash, but it’s impossible to get them above a three-point favorite without heavily factoring in priors from what was expected coming into the season. I’ve been de-emphasizing priors more aggressively this season in the current state of college football with so much roster turnover. Play: Oregon +3.5.

Alabama +3.5 at Georgia, over/under: 53. The only reason the number sits this high is Alabama’s 31-17 loss to Florida State in Week 1 as 14-point favorites. But was Georgia’s performance in its equivalent only meaningful game so far, a 44-41 win at Tennessee as 3.5-point favorites, much better? The Bulldogs were outgained by 1.1 net yards per play and had to dodge a game-winning field goal attempt as time expired. They got the result, and the Crimson Tide didn’t, but the underlying metrics paint these two teams as evenly-matched. Play: Alabama +3.5.

Big Plays

Florida State -8 at Virginia, over/under: 58. The Seminoles caught the Crimson Tide off-guard with the way new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn tailored his offense perfectly around quarterback Thomas Castellanos, but there are no more secrets now that it’s on film. Virginia loaded up defensively in the transfer portal while prolific veteran quarterback Chandler Morris should be able to test an unproven Florida State secondary. Play: Virginia +8.  

Wake Forest +15.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 52.5. Sell high on Georgia Tech, which is a blast to watch behind tough-nosed quarterback Haynes King but doesn’t play a style that’s favorable to banking blowout wins. Wake Forest is in rebuilding mode but has a decent new coaching staff led by Jake Dickert with extra time to prepare off a bye. Play: Wake Forest +15.5

Utah State +22 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 59. The market has been way off on the Commodores considering they’re 4-0 against the spread this season with an average cover margin of 26.5 points per game. It shouldn’t stop now, not with cult-legend quarterback Diego Pavia appearing to take every game personally and trying to pound opponents as thoroughly as possible. Play: Vanderbilt -22.

Arkansas State +3 at Louisiana-Monroe, over/under: 56. The Warhawks seem to be getting a market boost after knocking off UTEP 31-25 as 6-point underdogs last week, but it might be undeserved. The Miners handed them the game with too many early mistakes including a pair of interceptions. Arkansas State is even more flawed but can at least put up points with a bunch of speedy skill-position players. Play: Arkansas State +3.

Rice +14.5 at Navy, over/under: 46. If any team should be comfortable with the awkwardness of defending Rice’s shotgun-option attack, it should be Navy. The Midshipmen’s offense should be a bigger problem on the other side with quarterback Blake Horvath in the midst of a second consecutive monster season. Play: Navy -14.5.

BYU +6.5 at Colorado, over/under: 47. The Buffaloes are much more formidable now that coach Deion Sanders has wisely settled on former Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter instead of bouncing between him and two lesser options. BYU finds itself in a tricky situation traveling for a second consecutive tough road game after stomping East Carolina 34-13 as 6.5-point favorites last week. Play: Colorado +6.5

Other Games

Play: Northern Illinois +3 vs. San Diego State

Play: UCLA +7 at Northwestern

Play: Toledo -20.5 vs. Akron

Play: Georgia Southern +17 at James Madison

Play: Syracuse +5.5 vs. Duke

Play: Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Louisville

Play: Mississippi State +8.5 vs. Tennessee

Play: Stanford -2.5 vs. San Jose State

Lean: Eastern Michigan +5.5 at Central Michigan

Lean: TCU +2.5 at Arizona State

Lean: Boise State -16.5 vs. Appalachian State

Lean: Memphis -13.5 at Florida Atlantic

Lean: Liberty +16 at Old Dominion

Lean: Army +5.5 at East Carolina

Lean: California +6.5 at Boston College

Lean: Utah -10.5 at West Virginia

Lean: Hawaii +6.5 at Air Force

Lean: Oklahoma State +20.5 vs. Baylor

Lean: Buffalo +3 vs. Connecticut

Lean: New Mexico State +14 at New Mexico

Guess: UTEP +4 vs. Louisiana Tech

Guess: Middle Tennessee +8.5 at Kennesaw State

Guess: Rutgers +5.5 at Minnesota

Guess: Missouri State +5.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Guess: Washington State +5 at Colorado State

Guess: Kentucky +6.5 at South Carolina

Guess: South Alabama +13 at North Texas

Guess: Bowling Green +10.5 at Ohio

Guess: Virginia Tech +10.5 at NC State

Guess: Marshall +2.5 at Louisiana

Guess: Houston -11 at Oregon State

Guess: Tulsa +14 vs. Tulane

Guess: Southern Miss -3.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Guess: Arizona +6.5 at Iowa State

Guess: UCF +6 at Kansas State

Guess: Cincinnati +6.5 at Kansas