College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 6

No one can speak on the highs and lows of college football more intimately than Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer.

The second-year coach could probably get elected as the governor of Alabama in a landslide currently after he led a 24-21 upset victory at Georgia last week to make the Crimson Tide the betting favorite to win the SEC.

A month ago, he was almost chased out of the state all together after Florida State rocked Alabama 31-17 as 13-point underdogs in the season opener.

And that probably wasn’t even the low point of DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa, Ala., so far. That’s still likely reserved for Week 6 of last season when DeBoer became the first Alabama coach in 40 years to lose to Vanderbilt. The Commodores delivered an all-time moment in knocking off the Crimson Tide 40-35 as 24-point home underdogs.

They now loom again this week threatening to send DeBoer’s newfound positive approval rating spiraling. Vanderbilt is more than twice as likely to beat Alabama this year than it was last year according to the betting market.

The Crimson Tide opened as high as a 13.5-point favorite for the highly anticipated rematch, but early action has pushed the spread down to as low as -10.5.  

I had plays on both teams last week in the column with Alabama coming through but Vanderbilt allowing a touchdown in the final minute to only beat Utah State 55-35 as 22-point favorites. I’ve got a play on what’s surprisingly become one of the most anticipated games of the week below.

Read on to find out whether I like the Crimson Tide or Commodores along with picks on all 49 other Football Bowl Subdivision games. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 123-119-3 (42-39-3 on plays, 42-35-1 on leans and 39-45 on guesses).  

Big Games

Iowa State +1 at Cincinnati, over/under: 51.5. The Bearcats rate 19^th in the nation at +2.23 net yards per play, 40 spots ahead of the Cyclones at +0.75 net yards per play. Other more advanced metrics tell the same story: Cincinnati is the better team. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has pulled his team out of a number of close games to stay undefeated, but that trend can’t be counted on to continue incessantly.  Lean: Cincinnati -1

Vanderbilt +11 at Alabama, over/under: 57. The Commodores sit fifth in the nation in net yards per play and seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play. They’ve clearly leveled up from last year’s Cinderella crew. Alabama tailed off in last week’s win at Georgia, not scoring in the second half. The Crimson Tide should escape the Commodores this time, but it will be close. Play: Vanderbilt +11.

Texas -6.5 at Florida, over/under: 43. The betting market loves the Gators as they’re taking big money for the fourth straight game, this time moving down from an opening 7.5-point favorite. The interest hasn’t yielded profit the first three times, and it shouldn’t again. Florida may eventually get right, but this might not be the spot against the nation’s most talented top-to-bottom defense. Play: Texas -6.5.

Boise State +19 at Notre Dame, over/under: 65. The first number posted on this game in Las Vegas was Boise State -13.5, perhaps the worst opener of the season. The Fighting Irish look like a wrecking machine with quarterback CJ Carr now settled and should be expected to beat any Group of Five conference team, if not any non-playoff caliber team, by two touchdowns. But the move has gone too far, and chasing is a losing long-term strategy. Guess: Boise State +19.5.

Virginia +7.5 at Louisville, over/under: 62.5. Virginia’s defense is the weakest overall unit in this game, but Louisville’s offense hasn’t taken off either with much-ballyhooed transfer quarterback Miller Moss. A flat line of -7 would be fair, with the addition of an extra half-point — even if it requires paying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to Win $100) — leaving only way to look. Guess: Virginia +7.5.

Texas Tech -12.5 at Houston, over/under: 50.5. Texas Tech couldn’t have looked better to start the season — and deserve to be considered a darkhorse national championship contender — but the injuries are starting to pile up including at quarterback where Behren Morton’s status is unclear. This will be one of Houston’s biggest home games in years, one where it has a clear coaching edge with Willie Fritz against Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire. Play: Houston +12.5.

Miami -4.5 at Florida State, over/under: 54. The Hurricanes should have the Seminoles covered everywhere with positional advantages, but laying more than a field goal on the road against a dangerous rival always provides pause. There’s also some slight health concerns with Miami quarterback Carson Beck, who’s seen his throwing velocity and downfield passing rate decline. Guess: Florida State +4.5.

Mississippi State +14 at Texas A&M, over/under: 57.5. The Aggies’ 16-10 win over Auburn as 6.5-point favorites might have been the most misleading score of last week’s slate. Texas A&M was much more dominant than the scoreboard indicated. Mississippi State is one of the nation’s most improved teams after starting the season 4-1 straight-up, 5-0 against the spread but it’s yet to travel out of Starkville, Miss. Kyle Field is not an easy place to start the Bulldogs’ road schedule.  Play: Texas A&M -14.  

Big Plays

Kansas State +6.5 at Baylor, over/under: 61.  A Week 4 bye might have been just what Kansas State needed as it looked refreshed and much improved in pasting UCF 34-20 as 6-point favorites behind a breakout performance from Dylan Edwards last week. Sawyer Robertson has lived up to the hype for Baylor, but the Bears are otherwise at a talent deficit to the Wildcats. Play: Kansas State +6.5.

Army -7.5 at UAB, over/under: 57.5. Now 1-3 straight-up and against the spread, Army continues to get too much credit for last year’s dream season. The roster has completely turned over and lacks experience. I backed UAB as a big underdog in Week 2 citing defensive coordinator Steve Russ’s familiariy with facing service academies, and this is an easier assignment for him. Play: UAB +7.5.

Florida Atlantic +4 at Rice, over/under: 52. Watching these two mediocre American Athletic Conference Owls, it’s hard to believe they both entered the season in similar situations with first-year coaches. At 3-2 straight-up and against the spread, Rice already appears to have an identity under new coach Scott Abell. That’s something Florida Atlantic is still searching for under new  coach Zach Kittley after dropping all four of its FBS games by double digits.  Play: Rice -4.

South Alabama +2.5 at Troy, over/under: 46.5.  There’s not much quality difference between the rosters of these two in-state rivals and, if anything, Troy is trending upward while South Alabama has declined the last two weeks. The Trojans should be a bigger favorite at home.  Play: Troy -2.5

Colorado +15 at TCU, over/under: 58.5. Few skill position players in the nation might be as valuable as TCU receiver Eric McAlister, as the Horned Frogs’ offense looked like a shell of itself without him in a 27-24 loss to Arizona State as 3-point underdogs last week. Colorado’s offense meanwhile is on the up as the Buffaloes’ arsenal of running backs and mobile quarterback Kaidon Salter could tear up a poor Horned Frogs’ rush defense.  Play: Colorado +15.

UNR +14 at Fresno State, over/under: 45. The Bulldogs should eat the Wolf Pack alive in the trenches. First-year Fresno State coach Matt Entz already appears to be ahead of schedule while UNR might be headed in the wrong direction under coach Jeff Choate with a roster that looks overmatched on a weekly basis. Play: Fresno State -13.5.

Other Games

Play: Pittsburgh -5.5 vs. Boston College

Play: Navy -10.5 vs. Air Force

Play: Western Kentucky +2.5 at Delaware

Play: New Mexico State +2.5 vs. Sam Houston

Lean: Buffalo -9.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Lean: Wyoming +5.5 vs. UNLV

Lean: Memphis -19.5 vs. Tulsa

Lean: UCF +5 vs. Kansas

Lean: Arizona -19 vs. Oklahoma State

Lean: Illinois -8.5 at Purdue

Lean: Old Dominion -17 vs. Coastal Carolina

Lean: Clemson -13.5 at North Carolina

Lean: UTSA -6 at Temple

Lean: Washington -5.5 at Maryland

Lean: West Virginia +20 at BYU

Lean: San Diego State -5.5 vs. Colorado State

Lean: Charlotte +27.5 at South Florida

Lean: Ball State +15 vs. Ohio

Lean: Northwestern -10.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Lean: Virginia Tech -5.5 vs. Wake Forest

Guess: Minnesota +24 at Ohio State

Guess: Kentucky +21 at Georgia

Guess: Florida International +9.5 at Connecticut

Guess: New Mexico +2.5 at San Jose State

Guess: Akron +9 vs. Central Michigan

Guess: Northern Illinois +4.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Guess: Western Michigan -12 at Massachusetts

Guess: Georgia State +20 vs. James Madison

Guess: Appalachian State +2.5 vs. Oregon State

Guess: Nebraska -10.5 vs. Michigan State

Guess: California +3 vs. Duke

Guess: Oklahoma -45.5 vs. Kent State

Guess: UCLA +25.5 vs. Penn State

Guess: Michigan -16.5 vs. Wisconsin

Guess: Arkansas State +16.5 vs. Texas State

Guess: Syracuse +16.5 at SMU