College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 7

A popular topic of conversation heading into college football season was which team could emerge as, “this year’s Indiana.”

The Hoosiers took offense to being mentioned as the poster boys for an underdog that clawed their way into the new 12-team postseason format last season.

For one, the talk minimized the accomplishment and made it sound like a massive one-year turnaround — Indiana went 3-9 in the 2023-2024 — was something that could happen on an annual basis. Indiana also balked at the idea of, “a new Indiana”, because, well, it didn’t plan to go anywhere.  

The Hoosiers didn’t look at last year’s first-round exit as a one-and-done scenario where they slipped back into middle- to lower-class of college football.

The betting market didn’t necessarily agree as Indiana was still as high as 6-to-1 to make the playoff for the second straight year coming into the season but, so far, it’s made a mockery of those odds.

The Hoosiers can put a stranglehold on another spot just midway through the season Saturday night when they go on the road to face the Oregon Ducks in the biggest game of the week.

The winner will sit in a dominating position to reach the Big Ten Championship Game and, therefore, get back to the playoff. Indiana is currently priced at -140 (i.e .risking $140 to win $100) to reach the College Football Playoff at Caesars/William Hill with Oregon at -1800 (i.e. risking $1,800 to win $100).

The Ducks are proportionally priced as mostly an 8-point favorite hosting the Hoosiers. But betting against Indiana coach Curt Cignetti hasn’t been a shrewd strategy over the past four years.

The 64-year-old has been the most profitable coach in college football since arriving in the Football Bowl Subdivision with James Madison in 2022, going 27-14 against the spread to pair with a 35-6 straight-up record. Oregon’s Dan Lanning has been just as solid in the same timeframe, going 40-6 straight-up and 29-17 against the spread.   

Indiana at Oregon might not have been a game anyone anticipated defining a Big Ten season when the conference realigned last year, but few loom larger this year.

Oregon cementing itself as a college football power comes as no surprise, but Indiana is now right there with it.

Read below to find out how I handicap the game’s point spread along with picks on the other 55 FBS games scheduled for this week. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 149-142-5 (49-46-3 on plays, 52-42-1 on leans and 48-54-1 on guesses). 

Big Games

Ohio State -15.5 at Illinois, over/under: 50.5. After weeks of debate, it now seems that everyone has come to a consensus that Ohio State is the best team in the nation. That signals a great time to sell. A few weeks ago, this line would been closer to the Buckeyes as a 10-point favorite. The Illini’s 63-10 blowout loss at the Hoosiers in Week 4 has affected their rating too negatively in the market, as evidenced by the home team having since easily covered in two straight games. Play: Illinois +15.5.

Alabama -3.5 at Missouri, over/under: 52.5. Alabama was locked into a grim struggle with Vanderbilt last week and didn’t deserve the cover in a 30-14 win as 11.5-point favorites secured by a long Jam Miller touchdown run in the final minute. Missouri has arguably deserved, or played well enough to cover, in every game this season behind the explosive rushing duo of quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy despite only being 3-2 against the spread. The 3.5-point line essential — even if it means paying -120 — because that’s objectively too high.  Play: Missouri +3.5.

Indiana +8 at Oregon, over/under: 55. The Hoosiers’ much-ridiculed schedule so far this season doesn’t look nearly as bad in hindsight considering both Old Dominion and Kennesaw State look much improved. They’ve at least played a tougher slate than Oregon, and still put up better underlying numbers including ranking first in the nation in success rate. This line shouldn’t be more than a touchdown regardless of where it’s played. Play: Indiana +8.

Oklahoma +3 vs. Texas in Dallas, over/under: 42. This is hard to bet without iron-clad confirmation that Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer won’t play. The rumblings make it sound like a hand injury will keep him out at least another week, but he’s always described to be as tough as they come and there’s still a chance a surprise could materialize in the coming days. The only approach can be to take points and pray he plays. Lean: Oklahoma +3.

Florida +7.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 46.5. The betting market loves both of these teams as money has poured in on the pair on a weekly basis and now appears conflicted with no movement on the spread since the opening price. I can relate. Florida has the higher upside if everything starts to click but Texas A&M is more trustworthy. The Aggies’ home-field advantage at Kyle Field might be one of the best in the nation to break the tie. Guess: Texas A&M -7.5.

Georgia -3.5 at Auburn, over/under: 46.5. There’s a good chance the Tigers are playing from behind here, and their defense is not equipped to excel in that game state. This might be the one premier SEC game where Georgia has a quarterback advantage as Gunner Stockton is decidedly mediocre but has fewer limitations than Auburn’s passing-challenged Jackson Arnold. Guess: Georgia -3.5.

Michigan +2.5 at USC, over/under: 58. Few, if any, teams in the nation have bigger home vs. away splits over the past couple seasons than the Trojans. As much as the Wolverines’ offense has grown as freshman phenom quarterback Bryce Underwood progresses, it might not be able to keep up with the Trojans’ Jayden Maiava and a star-studded receiving corps that’s getting healthier. Lean: USC -2.5.

Arizona State +5.5 at Utah, over/under: 49.5. Utah’s rush defense has been middling, and Arizona State has a parade of rushers to throw at it with running backs Raleek Brown and Kanye Udoh to go with quarterback Sam Leavitt. The Utes’ overall metrics might look better than the Sun Devils’ but the former’s schedule leaves much to be desired outside of a lopsided 34-10 beatdown to Texas Tech as 3-point favorites. Lean: Arizona State +5.5.

Big Plays

South Florida -1.5 at North Texas, over/under: 67.5. North Texas’ offensive efficiency has flown under the radar as it’s been among the nation’s best behind uber-accurate quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who’s thrown for eight yards per pass attempt and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. Don’t pay a premium on South Florida based on its early-season exploits beating Boise State and Florida. On paper, the Mean Green might be better and could have done the same. Play: North Texas +1.5.

Pittsburgh +11 at Florida State, over/under: 58.5. A switch to freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel ignited Pittsburgh last week as it scorched Boston College 48-7 as 6.5-point favorites. Florida State has lost two in a row both straight-up and against the spread, and has shown a tendency of failing to bounce back from adversity under coach Mike Norvell. Play: Pittsburgh +11.

Air Force +5.5 at UNLV, over/under: 68. Air Force played its best game of the year in a 34-31 loss to Navy as 13.5-point underdogs last week to earn new respect in the market and send this spread down from opening at UNLV -7. But games between service academies play out differently and are rarely predictive going forward. The Falcons’ defense is among the worst in the nation and should have a difficult time slowing Rebels quarterback Anthony Colandrea. Play: UNLV -5.5.

Arkansas +13.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 69.5. Teams typically get a one-week bump when an interim coach takes over, and this one might be supercharged with former offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino making wholesale changes in auditioning for the permanent job. He’s overhauled the defensive staff during a bye week to prepare for the Volunteers, which will no longer know exactly what to expect on that side of the ball.   Play: Arkansas +13.5.  

Rice +13 at UTSA, over/under 50.5. The Roadrunners are perpetually overvalued and sitting at 1-3 straight-up and against the spread against FBS opponents this season. Rice let us down in this section last week, but its Shotgun option is not easy to scheme against especially for a team like UTSA coming off two straight, tight road games in different parts of the country. Play: Rice +13.

Clemson -14.5 at Boston College, over/under: 54.5. This line implies that all is solved after Clemson blew out North Carolina 38-10 as 14-point favorites last week. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The Tigers still have flaws, and the well-coached Eagles should be more motivated than ever to exploit them coming off the blowout loss to Pittsburgh. Play: Boston College +14.5.

Other Games

Play: Minnesota -7.5 vs. Purdue

Play: Michigan State -7.5 vs. UCLA

Play: Georgia State +3 vs. Appalachian State

Play: Washington -9.5 vs. Rutgers

Play: Toledo -10.5 at Bowling Green

Lean: Notre Dame -22.5 vs. NC State

Lean: Washington State +33 at Ole Miss

Lean: TCU -1 at Kansas State

Lean: Houston -14 at Oklahoma State

Lean: Tulane -7 vs. East Carolina

Lean: LSU -8.5 vs. South Carolina

Lean: UTEP +2.5 vs. Liberty

Lean: Army -17 vs. Charlotte

Lean: Miami (Ohio) -10 at Akron

Lean: SMU -19.5 vs. Stanford

Lean: Old Dominion -14 at Marshall

Lean: Nebraska -6.5 at Maryland

Lean: Western Michigan -9 vs. Ball State

Lean: Southern Miss -3 at Georgia Southern

Lean: Penn State -21.5 vs. Northwestern

Lean: Arizona +2.5 vs. BYU

Lean: Sam Houston +9.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Guess: Missouri State -2.5 at Middle Tennessee

Guess: Utah State +2.5 vs. Hawaii

Guess: Texas State -8.5 vs. Troy

Guess: Kennesaw State +6 vs. Louisiana Tech

Guess: New Mexico +16.5 at Boise State

Guess: Wyoming +2.5 vs. San Jose State

Guess: Wake Forest -2.5 at Oregon State

Guess: Florida Atlantic -4.5 vs. UAB

Guess: James Madison -17.5 vs. Louisiana

Guess: Colorado +3.5 vs. Iowa State

Guess: UCF +11 at Cincinnati

Guess: Texas Tech -13.5 vs. Kansas

Guess: Wisconsin +3.5 vs. Iowa

Guess: Fresno State -6.5 at Colorado State

Guess: Northern Illinois pick’em at Eastern Michigan

Guess: Virginia Tech +15 at Georgia Tech

Guess: UNR +8 vs. San Diego State

Guess: Coastal Carolina +2.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Guess: Temple +7.5 vs. Navy

Guess: Massachusetts +3 at Kent State