College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 8

Conference standings are starting to shake out, injuries are compiling and coaches are getting canned.

It’s officially the midseason of college football.

The betting equation changes with game-by-game stakes now heightened, or lowered, by virtue of having a half-season’s worth of data on virtually every team.

It’s now time to primarily handicap based on what’s happened the last month and a half, not any preconceived notions or ratings on teams or players coming into the season. That may sound obvious, but it’s not a stance I would have taken as recently as two or three years ago.

In most sports, sticking to priors to some degree is a must even as the season stretches past the early portion. College football was squarely among that group for arguably its entire history until the recent changes emphasizing the transfer portal and name, image and likeness deals made for unprecedented roster turnover on an annual basis.

With that in mind, I’m willing to adjust more aggressively on teams that perform different than what I expected.    

I believe it’s the right way to proceed, even if last week’s small sample may have indicated otherwise. It was one of the column’s worst weeks of the year with a 25-27-4 record picking every point spread including a 5-9 mark on plays.

Looking back, it might have been just as much variance and unlucky breaks than prognostication errors — though there were clear instances of the latter too.

But like a team coming off a loss and trying to stay in the playoff hunt, I’ll focus on making fewer mistakes going forward and bouncing back.

Read below to find picks on every Week 8 game. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 174-169-9 (54-55-3 on plays, 61-50-4 on leans and 59-64-2 on guesses.

Big Games

Louisville +13.5 at Miami, over/under: 53.5. Most Miami games, at least against reasonable competition, have followed the same script this year if not beyond. The Hurricanes overwhelm early with their talent, build a lead and then get too conservative to cause themselves trouble. It’s bit them in prior seasons, and it’s bound to again this year. Louisville is always relentless offensively under coach Brian Brohm, so it might be a strong candidate to put a scare into Miami. Lean: Louisville +13.5

LSU +1.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 49. Led by breakout edge rusher Miles Capers, Vanderbilt’s defensive line is much improved and might give an error-prone LSU offensive line fits. The Tigers have been too underwhelming offensively to get less than three points on the road against any top-half SEC opponent, and the Commondores likely fit that description this year. Guess: Vanderbilt -1.5.

Georgia Tech +2.5 at Duke, over/under: 60. Georgia Tech’s defense is average at best and hasn’t seen an offense as solid across the board as Duke’s this year. The Blue Devils can test the Yellow Jackets’ suspect secondary with the 14^th-ranked passing game by expected points added (EPA) per play, and have a big edge in explosivity with quarterback Darian Mensah at the controls.  Play: Duke -2.5.

Ole Miss +6.5 at Georgia, over/under: 53.5. Georgia’s defense has trended up the past couple weeks while Ole Miss’ offense might be stagnating as opponents get more tape on brief sensation/former Division 2 quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels got some schedule breaks to help start 6-0 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread but that ends here against a more battle-tested Bulldogs’ side. Play: Georgia -6.5.

Texas Tech -11.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 50. The Red Raiders are currently as high as -220 to win the Big 12 and that might not be enough. They’ve won and covered all three conference games by double digits to leave it fair to wonder if anyone can challenge them. Defending Big 12 champion Arizona State might be able to at full strength but there’s a lot of uncertainty on quarterback Sam Leavitt’s health status. Even if he plays, he likely won’t be at 100% and the drop-off to backup Jeff Sims is significant. Guess: Texas Tech -11.5.

USC +7.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 61.5. Notre Dame is out for blood after losing two of its first three games, and the road-challenged USC are all too clear of a victim. The Trojans might be able to score with the Fighting Irish for a while, but their defense has been a major disappointment and won’t be able to withstand the pressure created by the latter’s well-rounded offense. Play: Notre Dame -7.5.

Tennessee +8 at Alabama, over/under: 60.5. Backing so many favorites in this section makes me uneasy, but Tennessee’s defense is the clear weak link in this matchup. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and wide receiver Germie Bernard have torn up bad defenses, and the Volunteers’ stop unit might be closer to the non-conference walkovers the Crimson Tide faced than their first three SEC foes. Lean: Alabama -8.

Utah -3.5 at BYU, over/under: 47.5. BYU should be fresher after facing one of the nation’s softest schedules while Utah has gone through the grinder and racked up a lengthy injury report. Close margins are the norm in this rivalry where the underdog is always worth the first look — especially when the spread is above a field goal. Lean: BYU +3.5.

Big Plays

Baylor +3 at TCU, over/under: 65.5. The offenses may neutralize each other, but TCU has more talent on the defensive side. The Horned Frogs should also be raring to play to atone for an incredibly sloppy showing in a 41-28 loss at Kansas State as 3-point favorites last week. Play: TCU -3.

Army +9 at Tulane, over/under: 46.5. Tulane has taken the place Memphis held earlier this year in the column: The market bets against the Green Wave every week, and I gladly provide resistance by buying the dip. Tulane only pushed my -7 bet hosting East Carolina last week with a 26-19 win but it made several mistakes and the underlying statistics indicated the game should have featured a larger margin. Play: Tulane -9.

Central Michigan +3.5 at Bowling Green, over/under: 43. Bettors have steamed Central Michigan after Bowling Green opened as a 6-point favorite, but most of the advantages should be on the home team’s side. Eddie George has been one of the best first-year coaches in the nation for the Falcons, and they could get a boost with the return of veteran quarterback Drew Pyne this week.  Play: Bowling Green -3.5.

West Virginia +7 at UCF, over/under: 47.5. The Mountaineers surprised with 2-1 straight-up and against the spread start to the season but many of the players responsible for the overachievement are now injured. The Knights have been more steady throughout and are probably unlucky to have lost three straight games. Play: UCF -7

SMU +10 at Clemson, over/under: 54.5. SMU was a 2.5-point favorite when these two teams met in the ACC Championship Game last year, and Clemson held on for a 34-31 win with a last-second 56-yard field goal. Both rosters carry a lot of continuity, so where is the 12.5-point adjustment on the point spread coming from? Clemson is playing at home instead of a neutral field like last December, but SMU has already shown it’s up to the task of competing with the powerhouse program. Play: SMU +10.

UNR +10 at New Mexico, over/under: 48.5. New Mexico’s Jason Eck is doing as strong of a job as any coach in the country in tailoring game plans on a weekly basis to keep up with opponents that are superior on a talent level. That might not be a concern here, as the Lobos’ roster is probably better than the Wolf Pack’s to begin with. Play: New Mexico -10.

Other Games

Play: Liberty -10.5 vs. New Mexico State

Play: Charlotte +11 vs. Temple

Play: Western Kentucky -7.5 vs. Florida International

Play: San Jose State +4 at Utah State

Lean: South Alabama -7 vs. Arkansas State

Lean: Florida Atlantic +22.5 at South Florida

Lean: Delaware -1.5 at Jacksonville State

Lean: Marshall +3 vs. Texas State

Lean: Ball State -1 vs. Akron

Lean: North Texas -4 vs. UTSA

Lean: Texas A&M -7.5 at Arkansas

Lean: Purdue +3.5 at Northwestern

Lean: Boston College -1.5 vs. Connecticut

Lean: East Carolina -16.5 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Virginia -17.5 vs. Washington State

Lean: Georgia Southern -6.5 vs. Georgia State

Lean: Oregon -17 at Rutgers

Lean: Texas -11.5 at Kentucky

Lean: Minnesota +8 at Nebraska

Lean: Missouri +1.5 at Auburn

Lean: James Madison -2 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: California -10.5 vs. North Carolina

Lean: Toledo -24.5 vs. Kent State

Lean: Wyoming +6 at Air Force

Lean: Mississippi State +10 at Florida

Lean: Syracuse +11.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Guess: Arizona +2.5 at Houston

Guess: Appalachian State -10.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Colorado State -1.5 vs. Hawaii

Guess: Oklahoma State +23 vs. Cincinnati

Guess: Pen State +3.5 at Iowa

Guess: Troy -5.5 at Louisiana-Monroe

Guess: Massachusetts +18 vs. Buffalo

Guess: Maryland +3 at UCLA

Guess: Oklahoma -4.5 at South Carolina

Guess: Miami (Ohio) -12.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: UNLV +10.5 at Boise State

Guess: Northern Illinois +12.5 at Ohio

Guess: Louisiana +4 vs. Southern Miss

Guess: Michigan State +27 at Indiana

Guess: Florida State -17.5 at Stanford

Guess: UAB +21.5 vs. Memphis

Guess: UTEP -2.5 at Sam Houston

Guess: Ohio State -27 at Wisconsin

Guess: Washington +5.5 at Michigan