College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 9

The most compelling conference championship race in college football isn’t materializing in the sport’s pair of billion-dollar leagues, the SEC and the Big Ten.

It’s arguably not coming in the secondary tier of major conferences, the Big 12 and ACC either. All of those chases pale in comparison to the competition playing out in the Group of Five’s American Athletic Conference.

One reason is the stakes. Ever since current favorite South Florida’s red-hot start to the season that included a beatdown of current Mountain West odds-on favorite Boise State, the American champion has sat in strong position to land the College Football Playoff’s final automatic bid.   

The AAC Championship Game therefore projects as the first de facto playoff game of the year when it rolls around on the first weekend in December.

The fun part becomes figuring out which teams will be playing in it. Five teams in the AAC are currently listed at 8-to-1 or less to win the title at Circa Sports — South Florida at +115 (i.e. risking $100 to win $115), Tulane at +295, North Texas at +475, Memphis at +750 and Navy at 8-to-1.

Only two them have played each other — when South Florida blew out North Texas 63-36 as closing 1.5-point underdogs in Week 7. That leaves a lot of them on a collision course, starting this week when Memphis hosts South Florida as 4-point underdogs.

The Tigers were conference co-favorites a week ago before getting shocked 31-24 as 21.5-point favorites at UAB in a game where starting quarterback Brendon Lewis went down.  

But so many other teams have played well in the AAC — the conference has a better non-conference record against power-conference schools than the ACC — that Memphis’ College Football Playoff aspirations aren’t even squandered by the devastating loss.

The Tigers just have to win this week to stay alive. It’s the first of many must-win games to watch in the AAC down the stretch of the season.

Read below to see how I handicap South Florida at Memphis along with all the other Football Bowl Subdivision games on the betting board this week. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 201-199-10 (59-63-3 on plays, 75-61-4 on leans and 67-75-3 on guesses.

 Big Games

Ole Miss +4 at Oklahoma, over/under: 53. This year’s Ole Miss team is priced like it is one of coach Lane Kiffin’s best. That’s not accurate, not when a lot of its statistical production was racked up against a schedule that’s graded out weaker than expected. Oklahoma should only get better as quarterback John Mateer’s hand injury continues to heal. Play: Oklahoma -4.

South Florida -4 at Memphis, over/under: 65.5. Lewis left the UAB game in crutches and, even though coach Ryan Silverfield described his status as “day to day,” it’s difficult to have much faith in him returning to face South Florida. At this price, however, there’s no other choice but to hope for a miraculous recovery by backing the home team. The value on South Florida is nonexistent considering this line would have been a touchdown different a week ago. Guess: Memphis +4.

Missouri +3 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 52.5. Missouri is a complete team aside from quarterback Beau Pribula forcing two or three terrible throws that usually turn into interceptions on a weekly basis. Turnovers are fickle, however, and the inexperienced Pribula could still be getting better. This looks like a spot where he should get into less trouble against a Vanderbilt defense ranking No. 113 in the nation against the pass by expected points added (EPA) per play. Play: Missouri +3.  

BYU +2.5 at Iowa State, over/under: 49.5. BYU is undefeated as a result of controlling the line of scrimmage and relying on the rushing abilities of quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin. That same setup should work in Ames, Iowa. While BYU has consistently improved, Iowa State is heading in the opposite direction and showing more of its warts with two straight losses both straight-up and against the spread. Play: BYU +2.5.

Texas -6.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 46. Even if Arch Manning is bound to be one of college football’s biggest letdowns ever and never transcends mediocrity, Texas should have enough talent around him to break out at some point. It’s a tough sell to keep betting on it and losing money, though. Mississippi State, against all odds from the start of the season, is the more reliable side here to make this game a tricky handicap. Guess: Texas -6.5.

Texas A&M -3 at LSU, over/under: 49.5. The Aggies showed some concerning defensive cracks last week at Arkansas, getting gashed all over the field in a 45-42 win as 7.5-point favorites. LSU hasn’t been nearly as explosive as Arkansas but it has more talent and finds itself in a desperate spot after losing two of its last three games. This should be more of a pick’em given LSU traditionally holding one of the bigger home-field advantages in college football. Lean: LSU +3.

Houston +8 at Arizona State, over/under: 47.5. Few teams in the nation had a more impressive win last week than Arizona State, which slayed the Texas Tech giant 26-22 as 4-point underdogs with the return of quarterback Sam Leavitt. The Sun Devils are now the much healthier team than the Cougars, which look outmatched on paper. Lean: Arizona State -8.

Big Plays

SMU -3 at Wake Forest, over/under: 53.5. Having won three straight including an outright upset at Clemson, SMU looks like it’s back in the form that delivered a playoff berth last season. Wake Forest has been a pleasant surprise but it hasn’t faced any team nearly as challenging as SMU. The Demon Deacons could be in for a rude awakening, leaving the big move from the fairer opening price of SMU -5.5 puzzling. Play: SMU -3.

Auburn -1.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 57. Arkansas’ offense was hard enough to stop but it’s levelled up even more since Bobby Petrino went from offensive coordinator to interim coach. Auburn’s offense is the polar opposite, and painfully one-dimensional with the run game. There’s a lot of dread within the Auburn program right now with coach Hugh Freeze all but sure to be fired while Arkansas comes off as jazzed to play for Petrino as he pushes for a second stint at the full-time job.  Play: Arkansas +1.5.

Western Michigan +2 at Miami (Ohio), over/under: 41. This is the MAC equivalent of the South Florida vs. Memphis AAC showdown — except bigger in terms of importance in its own league. The winner emerges as the clear favorite to win the conference. The RedHawks are annually built as a contender as coach Chuck Martin has reached the last two conference title games and won the MAC twice. The Broncos are a promising upstart but have a ways to go to prove they're on that level. Play: Miami (Ohio) -2.

Minnesota +7.5 at Iowa, over/under: 49.5. It would typically be wise to run away from this large of a spread on Iowa, but Minnesota just looks like a weaker version of the home team this year. The Gophers will need explosive plays to keep up with the Hawkeyes, and have been as hard-pressed as any Big Ten team to create explosive plays this season. Play: Iowa -7.5.

Baylor +5.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 67.5. Right as Cincinnati started to get love for a six-game winning streak, it gave up nearly 7 yards per play to lowly Oklahoma State in a 49-17 win as 20-point favorites last week. The defensive credit the Bearcats have gotten is overblown, something Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson should put squarely in focus this week. Play: Baylor +5.5

Colorado +13.5 at Utah, over/under: 49.5. Colorado has covered four straight for me in this column, but it’s time to sell. The Utes have one of the better offensive lines in the nation, one that should swallow up the Buffaloes and create too many openings for dynamic quarterback Devon Dampier against a susceptible defense. Play: Utah -13.5.

Other Games

Play: Colorado State +6.5 at Wyoming

Play: Northern Illinois -4.5 vs. Ball State

Play: Nebraska -7 vs. Northwestern

Play: Louisiana Tech -3.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Play: Eastern Michigan +12.5 vs. Ohio

Play: Southern Miss -12 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Lean: Florida International +3 vs. Kennesaw State

Lean: San Diego State -3 at Fresno State

Lean: Toledo +2 at Washington State

Lean: TCU -14.5 at West Virginia

Lean: New Mexico -2 vs. Utah State

Lean: Troy -9.5 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Lean: Georgia Southern +2.5 at Arkansas State

Lean: NC State +7.5 at Pittsburgh

Lean: Tulsa +6.5 vs. Temple

Lean: Connecticut -10 at Rice

Lean: Florida Atlantic +16 at Navy

Lean: Syracuse +18 at Georgia Tech

Lean: Virginia -10 at North Carolina

Lean: New Mexico State +2 vs. Missouri State

Lean: Arizona State -8 vs. Houston

Lean: Indiana -24.5 vs. UCLA

Guess: Middle Tennessee +8.5 at Delaware

Guess: Rutgers -2 at Purdue

Guess: Akron +10 at Buffalo

Guess: Kentucky +9.5 vs. Tennessee

Guess: Michigan State +14 vs. Michigan

Guess: California +4.5 at Virginia Tech

Guess: Stanford +30.5 at Miami

Guess: Appalachian State +14 at Old Dominion

Guess: Georgia State +6.5 vs. South Alabama

Guess: Illinois +5 at Washington

Guess: South Carolina +13.5 vs. Alabama

Guess: Kansas State +3 at Kansas

Guess: Charlotte +27.5 vs. North Texas

Guess: Oklahoma State +39 at Texas Tech

Guess: Boise State -21.5 at UNR

Guess: Wisconsin +34.5 at Oregon

Guess: Boston College +26 at Louisville

Guess: Kent State +9 vs. Bowling Green

Guess: Massachusetts +16.5 at Central Michigan