Conference championship sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL card

3 months ago 18

Saturday, Jan. 25, 2025 | 11:48 a.m.

The Ravens let down the Sunday Sweats betting column. Riley Leonard did not.

My dreams of hitting a second moneyline-rollover bet on a team all the way to the Super Bowl are dashed. Baltimore couldn’t get it done in a mistake-fueled 27-25 loss at Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites in the divisional round.

But the column’s bigger overall goal — avoiding a losing football season for the first time in its five-year history — might have some semblance of life thanks to the Notre Dame quarterback. Leonard not only cashed my anytime touchdown bet, but also scored first for an additional 12-to-1 return.

That made for a 6-4 past week, a $1,306 win and a fighting chance at finishing in the black. It’s going to take a big conference championship weekend and Super Bowl to get there.

Read my attempt to scratch off the former objective below with the eight usual categories. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here.

Tasty Total (21-16, $680): Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles under 48 points (Wynn)

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Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean reacts after sacking Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford during the first half of an NFL football game in Inglewood, Calif., Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024.

$220 to win $200

I bet under in both championship games at open last week, but the NFC is the only one that’s stayed in range. It’s also the one I’ve felt more confident in as time has gone on. Philadelphia’s defense is playing too well to give up major production against anyone, even a soaring Washington offense. But there’s also questions about the Eagles’ offense with Jalen Hurts’ banged-up knee leading a long list of injuries. Buffalo at Kansas City has more shootout potential. I bet under 49.5 in that game — though I’m now second-guessing it — and 48.5 is the best currently available. I bet under 48.5 in Washington at Philadelphia, and having one sports book still within a half-point is enough for a bet.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (7-15, -$1,782): Philadelphia Eagles pick’em and Buffalo Bills +7.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

Yes, these spreads aren’t ideal for the teaser section. But they could be much worse. Buffalo mostly fits as a positive expected-value teaser side. The total on the game is a little higher than preferred, but getting through the three and the seven makes up for it. Teasing Ohio State in the national championship game — as I did (albeit tentatively) in last week’s column — was the ideal setup for this category. But, of course, it didn’t fit with the schedule. Throwing in the Eagles should suffice. It’s not a mathematically sound inclusion but I have a hard time seeing the Eagles lose. I think they should be around a 7-point favorite — and I’m still not convinced that’s closer to where they close than the current -6 — so getting them down to pick’em sounds appealing.

Moneyline Parlay (4-15, -$1,406.18): Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown, Jayden Daniels to throw an interception, Commanders under 26.5 points and Dallas Goedert under 39.5 receiving yards at +360 (BetMGM)

Stephanie Scarbrough / AP

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) running with the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Landover, Md.

$60 to win $216

For the first time, the betting column is toeing into the same game parlay waters. Don’t get used to it. There are opportunities there, to be sure, but it’s still not something I feel fully comfortable with. My strategy, therefore, was to attack lines that were the best in town and fit with the way I see the NFC Championship Game going. As already hinted, I like Philadelphia’s defense to neutralize Washington’s offense and push its way to a victory with a slow-paced rushing attack. Barkley is -300 or higher to score a touchdown at the other two major books to offer SGPs in town, and only -225 at BetMGM. Meanwhile, Daniels is -120 to throw an interception as opposed to as high as -125 elsewhere and Goedert, who’s been hot but may be featured less in this matchup, is Even money to go under 39.5 receiving yards. Paying -295 for under 26.5 points might be a reach, but I don’t see Washington getting there. It’s an SGP after all so some gambling is inherent to the exercise.

Player Prop (19-15, $432): Patrick Mahomes over 252.5 passing yards at -110 (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

And now we enter the crowd-pleaser segment of the column. Who doesn’t like betting Mahomes’ overs? Unfortunately, the most popular Mahomes-related playoff wagers have been over rushing yards dating back the last few seasons. But the value in that market is gone, if it ever existed in the first place. Mahomes may still go over but he’s not running enough at this point of his career to justify a line like this week’s over/under 25.5 rushing yards. To beat the Bills, however, he probably is going to need to throw a lot. I don’t see the Chiefs capturing an early lead and gliding to victory. There’s going to be adversity in this game. And, when there’s adversity, the Chiefs wisely resort to dropping Mahomes back and attacking downfield. He should threaten 300 yards in another classic between the Chiefs and Bills.

Anytime Touchdown (10-14, $796.50): Josh Allen at -110 (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

Buffalo didn’t hold Allen back from running the ball near the goal line all year. The Bills certainly aren’t going to stop in the AFC Championship Game. BetMGM has Allen and running back James Cook priced similarly as the two likeliest scorers for the visitors. I don’t agree. Allen should be far and away the most likely, to the point where this line is at least -120 or higher. The quarterback ran in two touchdowns last week against Baltimore, one earlier this year against Kansas City and a pair against Kansas City in last year’s playoff showdown. He should get another Sunday.

Lookahead Line (11-11, -$147.50): Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills hypothetical total under 48.5 points (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Steve Marcus

A view of a Super Bowl LVIII sign after it was illuminated in a ceremony at the Neon Museum, 770 Las Vegas Blvd North, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. The sign was displayed in the Fremont Street Experience during Super Bowl LVIII festivities.

$220 to win $200

Under is the unintended theme of the week. It’s not a total surprise. Games tend to cagier down the stretch of the season with teams focused on not making any crippling mistakes and starting more methodically. That could be even more of a focus if Philadelphia and Buffalo reach the Super Bowl, as I currently suspect. These are both top five teams in the NFL in run play percentage. They average more than enough points and production to fly over this total, but a lot of those statistics were racked up against lesser defenses. Both Buffalo’s and definitely Philadelphia’s stop units would be up for the task in the biggest game of the year. I’d pick something like a 24-21 final score in this matchup.

Future Finding (1-7, -$350): Khalil Shakir to lead conference championship weekend in passing yards at 8-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $1,600

The talk all year has been that Buffalo doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver. I don’t buy it. Shakir is pretty clearly its No. 1 receiver — and not a bad one at that. He has almost three times the amount of targets of any other receiver on the roster in the first two playoff games, and he’s ended up catching all but one of them. Kansas City has several receivers who should threaten to cash in this market, but it’s more likely they cannibalize each other. Shakir is a much heavier favorite to be Buffalo’s leading receiver. The problem with him is he’s underproduced as far as explosive plays and downfield catches but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable. Shakir is a real threat to put up a big statistical line against the Chiefs.

Nonfootball Play (11-8, $1,015): Calgary Flames +135 at Minnesota Wild (SuperBook)

Larry MacDougal / The Canadian Press via AP

Vegas Golden Knights' Pavel Dorofeyev, left, has a shot stopped by Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf during the second period Thursday, March 14, 2024, in Calgary, Alberta.

$200 to win $230

It’s been a while since hockey has made an appearance in Sunday Sweats. Let’s welcome the sport back with an old friend, Minnesota goalie/Vegas legend Marc-Andre Fleury. The confirmation of Fleury starting today, combined with Calgary countering with rookie sensation Dustin Wolf was the final information needed to lock in a play on the underdog. The 23-year-old Wolf has been playing at a much higher level than the 40-year-old Fleury. The latter has a much better team around him, but the Wild are re-integrating stars Kirill Kaprizov and Jared Spurgeon as the pair plays for the second time coming off injuries. The market is pricing the Wild like those two players are back at full strength. I think it’s going to take a few more games. The Flames have defied expectations and been a profitable bet as an underdog all year. Let’s hope they can keep up the trend for at least one more game.

Sunday Sweats season to date: 84-101, -$762.18

Weekend betting column year to date: 16-10, $2,282

Weekend betting column all-time: 833-917-5, $39,185.09