Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 10 winners against the spread

A major topic of conversation this summer was how the NFL’s new kickoff rule would affect scoring.

Now past the midway point of the regular season, it’s time to officially say that the impact has been sizable. The average game has produced just short of 47 points — a point more than last season and the NFL’s highest scoring environment since 2020.

A record 49.6 points per game were scored during the 2020 COVID season with factors like empty stadiums and no preseason/limited offseason practices often cited for the spike.

The biggest single reason for the latest jump is kickoffs, namely moving the touchback spot from last year’s 30-yard line in the first year of the new “dynamic” ruleset to the 35 this season.

That’s meant the return rate has skyrocketed — from 33% last year to 79% this year — with average starting field position off kickoffs improving to the 30.2-yard line, the furthest of all-time.

But it’s not the only special teams-related revolution as field goals are also being converted from record-long distances. Allegiant Stadium was host to the longest field goal in NFL history last week, as Jacksonville’s Cam Little easily made a 68-yarder before halftime against Las Vegas.

Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey attempted to tie the record in the same situation against Arizona on Monday Night Football but his attempt fell short.

Betting on scoring has therefore unsurprisingly been a winning formula so far in the NFL season, with overs at a slightly profitable 72-62-1 in the game totals market. Unders bounced back for the first time in three weeks during Week 9 with eight of 14 games falling beneath the total.

It will be worth monitoring going forward whether that was a result of the market adequately adjusting or just a one-week blip.

A fascinating betting season continues with Week 10. Find my handicaps on all 14 games below. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 78-54-3 after a 9-4 record last week.

Plays (29-22-1)

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings Two-time Ravens MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson is 20-4 straight-up, 18-6 against the spread lifetime against NFC opponents with 50 touchdowns to 18 turnovers. His sample of success in the situation is getting too large to ignore, and makes logical sense given how difficult he is to play against for teams that don’t encounter him often.

Green Bay Packers -2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Packers didn’t punt a single time despite falling victim to the biggest upset of the season last week, losing 16-13 to the Panthers as 13-point favorites. There tends to be more randomness than typically acknowledged in a team’s ability to finish drives, and they should bounce back in that department. All of Green Bay’s problems are correctable, and it’s been better than Philadelphia by every overall team-strength metric so far this season.

New York Jets +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns This point spread moved 4.5 points after the Jets dealt cornerback Sauce Gardner (to the Colts) and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (to the Cowboys) at Tuesday’s trade deadline. They might be New York’s two best players but that still feels aggressive, especially considering Cleveland’s offense slots dead-last in the NFL by the DVOA ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 at Houston Texans The Jaguars’ cluster injury at wide receiver was a concern coming into the week, but a trade for former Raiders pass-catcher Jakobi Meyers and positive reports on Brian Thomas’ status have minimized it. The Texans meanwhile will play without concussed quarterback C.J. Stroud, who should be more valuable to the point spread than this 1.5-point move since last week.

Carolina Panthers -5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints New Orleans has rarely been competitive while losing four in a row both straight-up and against the spread. After a couple halfway decent performances to start the year, the market hasn’t caught up to the reality that the Saints might now be the worst team in the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers have fielded a top-10 offense by most metrics when star tackle Joe Alt has played; they’ve fielded a bottom-10 offense when he hasn’t. Alt is now out for the season with a broken ankle, joining All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater on injured reserve, and the big blow to the fulcrum of the Chargers’ offense might be irreparable to their contending hopes.

Leans (27-17-1)

Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts in Berlin Despite their 3-5 straight-up record, the Falcons have banked 4.4 expected wins based on their per-play efficiency according to DVOA. The Colts have slightly overachieved by the same metric at 7-2 straight-up with 6.8 expected wins. Regression could be coming both ways.

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The combined score in the last five meetings between these two NFC West rivals, spanning back to the 2023 season, is 106-106 with not a single game being decided by more than seven points. The routine closeness makes me feel more comfortable in going against the flood of money and providing some buyback on the 49ers, which opened a much shorter 3-point underdog.

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks Both these offenses are stealing the attention after dazzling primetime performances — the Seahawks slammed the Commanders 38-14 as 3-point favorites on Sunday Night Football before the Cardinals cruised past the Cowboys 27-17 as 3-point underdogs on Monday Night Football — but defense is where both teams have improved the most. Scoring should be at a premium, which puts more value on the underdog.

Miami Dolphins +10 vs. Buffalo Bills Mike McDaniel is embattled and rightfully the favorite to be the next coach fired, but his Dolphins’ teams have typically played the Bills tough. Although Miami hasn’t beaten Buffalo under McDaniel since its first try in 2022, the coach has only lost by more than this point spread against the Bills twice in eight games. He knows how to attack Buffalo coach Sean McDermott’s defense.

Guesses (22-15-1)

New England Patriots +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers A bye week might not have helped the Buccaneers as much as expected with several injured players still sidelined including running back Bucky Irving and receiver Chris Godwin. The Patriots have caught a lot of heat for benefitting from scheduling breaks, and this might be yet another one.

Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 at Denver Broncos Las Vegas’ offense is merely average instead of one of the worst in the NFL when tight end Brock Bowers is healthy, and Denver’s defense is beset with injuries. Only two of the Broncos’ seven wins have come by double digits, against the Bengals and Cowboys, and the Raiders have a stronger defense than both of those teams.

New York Giants +4.5 at Chicago Bears Several sportsbooks opened the Bears as a 3-point favorite, which was far too short with the home team holding advantages all over the field. But most of those advantages are slim, which might mean the adjustment went too far.

Washington Commanders +9 vs. Detroit Lions Both these teams are severely beaten up, but the Lions might have more new sidelined players with scores of offensive linemen including superstar Penei Sewell now hurt alongside their preexisting cluster injury in the defensive backfield. They should win, but they’re not in a healthy enough state to lay nearly double digits on the road.