Divisional-round weekend sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL card

It conscionable mightiness beryllium the champion shot play of the year, oregon astatine slightest of the playoffs.

The divisional circular is ever peculiar due to the fact that it provides 4 consecutive standalone games often without the outward mismatches of the wild-card slate, stretching some Saturday and Sunday. Then Monday comes the bonus of the College Football Playoff nationalist championship.

Conference championships are great, but lone 2 games tin permission you wanting more. The betting options connected the Super Bowl can’t beryllium beaten, but it’s besides a bittersweet clip with the extremity of shot season.

So, hail to the divisional round. Let’s currency immoderate bets, hopefully including pulling the moneyline rollover parlay connected the Baltimore Ravens done different round.

I’ll take the $120 accumulated aft last week’s triumph connected the Ravens and stake it each connected them to bushed the Bills astatine -115 astatine South Point. So a $120 stake to triumph $104.35 connected the Ravens volition footwear america off.   

Read connected for the remainder of the plays arsenic portion of the Sunday Sweats file connected the accustomed categories . This file is considered an hold of Weekend Wagers and plays from some volition beryllium tracked successful the record. Non constituent dispersed bets placed wrong of the play NFL pick’em and elsewhere volition besides beryllium accounted for here.

Tasty Total (21-15, $900): Washington Commanders astatine Detroit Lions nether 56 points (Wynn)

$220 to triumph $200

There inactive indispensable beryllium immoderate old-school gambler successful maine due to the fact that erstwhile I spot a fig arsenic precocious arsenic “under 56,” I can’t assistance but instantly think, “too galore points.” I pushed this full arsenic acold arsenic I perchance could and lone came up with over/under 54 points successful my idiosyncratic numbers. Getting 2 points of worth is capable for a play. I don’t emotion it, caput you. There’s a mode I tin spot this crippled flying over. Namely, that volition hap if either squad gets up aggregate scores aboriginal and that seems rather imaginable considering Detroit is simply a 10-point favorite. But I don’t deliberation similar immoderate different full connected the committee this week, truthful I’m defaulting to this one. I expect thing similar a 28-24 Lions’ victory, and that provides immoderate wiggle country for this to cash.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (6-15, -$1,882): Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 and Ohio State astatine -2 astatine -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$125 to triumph $100

I truly don’t similar this teaser, but I’m excessively stubborn to ditch the class each unneurotic aft having forced myself to capable it for 18 consecutive weeks. So present we are. This is the lone teaser that you could perchance get astatine with immoderate worth successful Las Vegas presently fixed the prohibitive pricing astatine astir sportsbooks. I really thin some Houston +8.5 and Notre Dame +8.5 connected the constituent dispersed — the second is simply a preview of Monday’s nationalist title column, which volition person respective much plays tracked present — but that’s much oregon little irrelevant. The accidental to tease the favorites done the 3 and 7 successful low-totaled games should marque for affirmative expected value. Of course, I’d usually counsel to ne'er tease assemblage shot games nether immoderate circumstances. What tin I say? Rules are made to beryllium broken.  

Moneyline Parlay (3-15, -$1,606.18): Philadelphia Eagles, Jailton Almeida astatine UFC 311 and Islam Makhachev astatine UFC 311 astatine -116 (STN Sports)

$232.14 to triumph $200

Getting down to 4 games connected the NFL docket forces immoderate creativity here. Luckily, the archetypal UFC pay-per-view of the twelvemonth takes spot contiguous astatine the Intuit Dome successful Los Angeles with respective parlay-able sides to help. One shot moneyline successful municipality jumped retired supra each other — Philadelphia astatine -260, which is little mathematically than a 6-point favourite should typically beryllium successful a game. As for the UFC, the lightweight champion Makhachev and heavyweight contender Almeida leap retired arsenic the safest large favorites connected a paper that different has a batch of vulnerability successful that country — much connected that later. Makhachev -1000 mightiness dependable brainsick but it’s not precocious capable to seizure however large of an vantage helium has implicit constricted last-minute replacement Renato Moicano. Almeida meantime should maul Serghei Spivac. The Brazilian has lone ever mislaid once, and he’s not going to let Spivac the abstraction to people a flash knockout similar Curtis Blaydes did a twelvemonth ago.

Player Prop (18-14, $436): Jalen Hurts nether 206.5 walk yards astatine -115 (BetMGM)

$230 to triumph $200

Yes, I deliberation Philadelphia is going to bushed Los Angeles. No, I don’t deliberation the Eagles are going to request to beryllium capable to propulsion with overmuch measurement to propulsion it off. That content has lone strengthened with upwind forecasts progressively calling for much snowfall astatine Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles volition apt support it connected the ground, and thrust Saquon Barkley and Hurts to a 2nd NFC Championship Game quality successful 3 years. Hurts should beryllium amended than helium was a week ago, erstwhile helium showed rustiness coming retired of concussion protocol and having hardly practiced for 3 weeks, but astir of his occurrence mightiness travel done his legs. Look for a Tush Push oregon 2 successful the snowfall to person a cardinal third-down and get into the extremity zone. Passing volition beryllium kept to a minimum.

Anytime Touchdown (9-13, $656.50): Nico Collins astatine +190 (BetMGM)

$150 to triumph $285

The fourth-year receiver retired of Michigan is different. He’s softly 1 of the champion weapons successful the NFL each of a sudden. The Chiefs won’t beryllium the squad to dilatory his ascent. Kansas City rates No. 26 successful the NFL against No. 1 receivers and, adjacent though it volition beryllium healthier hosting Houston aft a bye week and remainder successful the last crippled of the regular season, it’s not equipped to dilatory the Houston star. The Texans’ lone existent changeable astatine shocking the Chiefs volition beryllium feeding Collins. My hunch is that backmost C.J. Stroud, manager DeMeco Ryans and violative coordinator Bobby Slowik each cognize it. They’ll provender Collins conscionable similar they should.  

Lookahead Line (11-11, -$147.50): Los Angeles Rams +7 astatine Detroit Lions hypothetical NFC Championship enactment (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to triumph $200

Well, this same stake got refunded from past week’s column. I cautioned that I didn’t deliberation the crippled would hap anyway, and it didn’t. I inactive don’t deliberation it’s going to hap for the close to spell to Super Bowl 59 but, conscionable successful case, I’d similar to fastener up a fig I inactive judge is incorrect. And present it’s adjacent much incorrect arsenic the Superbook added a fractional constituent from the divisional-round hypothetical crippled contempt the Rams looking phenomenal successful a 27-9 triumph implicit the Vikings arsenic 2.5-point favorites. If they travel that by shutting down the likes of Hurts and Barkley and solving the soaring Eagles’ defense, past they’re going to get adjacent much credit. I wouldn’t beryllium amazed if this fig was Detroit -4.5 successful the hypothetical matchup and can’t envision a noninjury script wherever it’s thing much than -6.

Future Finding (0-5, -$1,230): Jayden Daniels to pb the divisional circular successful passing yardage astatine 6-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to triumph $1,200

Speaking of moving it backmost and trying again, let’s effort to currency successful connected the astir walk yards marketplace for the 2nd consecutive week. I didn’t get the crippled publication I needed for Matthew Stafford to pb the wild-card round, but there’s a amended accidental Daniels finds himself successful a plus-passing passing concern against Detroit. It’s the highest-totaled crippled of the weekend, arsenic I’ve already covered, and the lone contention indoors. Washington is besides the biggest underdog. It doesn’t instrumentality overmuch of a agelong to spot the Commanders needing to propulsion to enactment successful it. And the rookie Daniels has shown each twelvemonth he’s capable. The 2nd fractional of the twelvemonth has besides displayed however leaky Detroit’s secondary has grown done repeated injuries. Now ideate if its besides playing backmost trying not to springiness up large plays. Daniels tin heap up smaller gains that adhd up to a large total. He shouldn’t beryllium favored to propulsion for much yards than Detroit counterpart Jared Goff, but being astatine 6-to-1 to the latter’s +160 is excessively large of a gap.  

Nonfootball Play (10-8, $775): Merab Dvalishvili +240 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov astatine UFC 311 (Circa Sports)

$100 to triumph $240

The biggest nonfootball play each play came successful Week 2 erstwhile I backed Dvalishvili arsenic an underdog to dethrone Sean O’Malley. It was never a sweat. I’ll instrumentality a much restrained attack this clip around, adjacent though I inactive don’t deliberation the section nonmigratory is getting rather the respect helium deserves. Maybe Nurmagomedov genuinely is the 2nd coming of his manager and cousin, Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, but helium hasn’t proven it yet. Umar sits 18-0 but his spot of docket leaves overmuch to beryllium desired. Dvalishvili meantime has fought the who’s who of the bantamweight part and mightiness beryllium connected the UFC’s astir awesome triumph streak, having won 11 successful a row. This should beryllium a adjacent combat that I’d enactment much astir a pick’em.

Sunday Sweats play to date: 78-87, -$1,566.18

Weekend betting file twelvemonth to date: 10-6, $976

Weekend betting file all-time: 827-913-5, $37,879.09

Previous pending wagers: Patrick Mahomes to triumph 2024-2025 NFL MVP astatine +750 ($350 to triumph $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to triumph Super Bowl 59 astatine 9-to-1 ($300 to triumph $2,700);  New Jersey Devils to triumph Stanley Cup Final astatine 16-to-1 ($250 to triumph $4,000); Reed Sheppard to triumph NBA Rookie of the Year astatine 11-to-1 ($200 to triumph $2,200);  Dave Canales to triumph NFL Coach of the Year astatine 20-to-1 ($100 to triumph $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to triumph President's Trophy astatine 15-to-1 ($150 to triumph $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to triumph NBA MVP ($300 to triumph $1,800); New Orleans Saints to triumph the NFC South astatine +425 ($200 to triumph $950); CeeDeee Lamb to triumph Offensive Player of the Year astatine 10-to-1 ($300 to triumph $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to triumph Defensive Player of the Year astatine 16-to-1 ($200 to triumph $3,200); Justin Madubuike to triumph Defensive Player of the Year astatine 100-to-1 ($25 to triumph $2,500); Derrick Henry to pb the NFL successful rushing astatine 20-to-1 ($100 to triumph $2,000); James Cook to pb the NFL successful rushing yards astatine 35-to-1 ($65 to triumph $2,275); Bo Nix to triumph Offensive Rookie of the Year astatine 18-to-1 ($100 to triumph $1,800); JJ McCarthy to triumph Offensive Rookie of the Year astatine 25-to-1 ($75 to triumph $1,875); Jared Verse to triumph Defensive Rookie of the Year astatine 11-to-1 ($200 to triumph $2,200); Chop Robinson to triumph Defensive Rookie of the Year astatine 20-to-1 ($110 to triumph $2,200); Brian Thomas to triumph Offensive Rookie of the Year astatine 25-to-1 ($80 to triumph $2,000);Aaron Rodgers to triumph Comeback Player of the Year astatine +175 ($300 to triumph $525); Dallas Turner to triumph Defensive Rookie of the Year astatine +750 ($270 to triumph $2,025); Edmonton Oilers to triumph President's Trophy astatine 6-to-1 ($300 to triumph $1,800); All NBA Cup futures; Brock Purdy to triumph NFL MVP astatine 12-to-1 ($230 to triumph $2,760); Ja'Marr Chase to triumph Offensive Player of the Year astatine 14-to-1 ($200 to triumph $2,800);  Ryan Dunn to triumph NBA Rookie of the Year astatine 12-to-1 ($190 to triumph $1,280); Houston hoops to triumph the Big 12 regular play rubric astatine +250 ($200 to triumph $500); Auburn hoops to triumph the SEC regular play rubric astatine 3-to-1 ($300 to triumph $900); San Diego State to triumph the Mountain West Conference regular play rubric astatine +450 ($200 to triumph $900); Baltimore Ravens to triumph the AFC astatine +550 ($300 to triumph $1,650); Minnesota Vikings to triumph the NFC astatine +625 ($240 to triumph $1,560); Green Bay Packers to triumph the NFC astatine 8-to-1 ($200 to triumph $1,600); South Carolina women's hoops to triumph the nationalist title astatine +305 ($500 to triumph $1,525); AFC -115 vs. NFC successful Super Bowl 59 ($230 to triumph $200); Super Bowl nonstop matchup — Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings ($50 to triumph $1,000); Baltimore Ravens to triumph Super Bowl 59 astatine +650 ($200 to triumph $1,300)