German elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz

Local elections are underway in two German states on Sunday, a vote that could shape the political fortunes of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Opinion polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern indicate that Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces the prospect of damaging defeats, raising further questions about his leadership. The polls come shortly after the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a large victory in Saxony‑Anhalt two weeks ago, a result that saw the CDU’s share of the vote cut in half. Speculation in Berlin has grown that Merz could be replaced mid‑term unless the CDU’s electoral performance improves. Merz has said he will remain in office, but he is contending with mediocre support ratings amid rumors of an alleged chancellor swap. His rivals, however, are “still hesitating,” according to Tagesschau. In Berlin, the CDU could lose ground as it competes with Die Linke for the top position. In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, the CDU is barely clearing the 5 % threshold required for a party to enter the state parliament, a showing that would mark its worst ever result in a state election. After just 16 months in power, Merz must answer for his party’s declining popularity while the political force he sought to counter‑act—the AfD—continues its ascent. Domestic intelligence classifies certain AfD branches as right‑wing extremist, a label the party strongly rejects. Nevertheless, its anti‑immigration, Russian‑friendly, Germany‑first platform has found fertile support in the country’s former communist east. The AfD aims to capitalize on its recent landslide triumph in Saxony‑Anhalt by leading the polls in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern. Meanwhile, the centre‑left Social Democratic Party (SPD) has mounted a late comeback, positioning itself for the top spot through its lead candidate, Manuela Schwesig. Currently the state premier, Schwesig is seeking to broaden the anti‑AfD vote, branding herself as the “Die Frau gegen Blau” – “Woman against Blue,” the AfD’s party colours. Her local popularity, however, contrasts with the far weaker national standing of her party, which remains locked in a loveless coalition with Merz’s CDU.