History not on Raiders' side in Thursday night game at Denver

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) tries to sack Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the first half of an NFL football game at Allegiant Stadium Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. Photo by: Wade Vandervort

The Brock Bowers Show travels to the gateway of the Rocky Mountains to headline the Raiders’ annual Thursday night assignment.

Las Vegas fans were in need of a reason for optimism coming off a historically lopsided loss to Kansas City two games ago. They might not have been rewarded with a victory against Jacksonville on Sunday, but they did get a first-rate performance from their superstar tight end as he returned from a knee injury. Bowers had a Week 9 league-high 12 receptions with 129 receiving yards and a career-high three touchdowns in the 30-29 loss.

He could have even more opportunities against the Broncos after the Raiders traded receiver Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars as part of a flurry of moves at the NFL’s trade deadline Tuesday. Las Vegas will need another big day from Bowers if it wants to knock off a Denver side that’s won six in a row to take the lead in the AFC West.

Favorable matchup: Broncos’ defensive injuries vs. Raiders’ resilient offense

Denver’s defense was considered among the best in the NFL coming into the season and the unit has shown flashes of living up to that hype when at full strength. Problem is, the Broncos haven’t been at full strength defensively often and now might be more beaten up than ever. Five starters are on their injury report with three more backups. It’s unlikely all eight will miss the game but the most valuable, reigning Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Patrick Surtain II, almost certainly won’t be on the field. He didn’t practice all week while fellow defensive backs Riley Moss, Brandon Jones and P.J. Locke only received limited reps. Suddenly this looks like a game where Raiders quarterback Geno Smith can build on the rhythm he tapped into with Bowers on Sunday. Smith had one ill-advised interception but was otherwise efficient with 284 yards and four touchdowns on 29-for-39 passing.

Problematic matchup: Broncos’ fourth-quarter prowess vs. Raiders’ late-game issues

Las Vegas has no-showed on a few occasions this year but its record could easily be 4-4 instead of 2-6. The Raiders far outplayed the Bears in Week 4, outgaining them by nearly 3 yards per play despite a 25-24 loss, and were also more efficient than the Jaguars with a 0.7 net-yard-per-play advantage. But they’ve been undisciplined when it matters most, with coach Pete Carroll singling out poor tackling as a major reason for Sunday’s loss. Smith had a two-point conversion pass attempt to make to a wide-open Tyler Lockett for the win, but the Jaguars batted down the ball at the line of scrimmage. Denver has been the best fourth-quarter team in the NFL, with four comeback victories. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has thrived with the game on the line. He ranks 23rd in the NFL in passer rating overall, but would catapult to ninth if only including the fourth quarter where he’s thrown for seven touchdowns to one interception.

Gamebreaker: Linebacker Devin White 

Las Vegas signed the former No. 5 overall pick who was defensive captain of the Super Bowl-winning  Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a reclamation project but has found a rock-solid leader. He has filled in alongside Maxx Crosby and Elandon Roberts as the heart of the defense. And he’s not just a rotational player, as once may have been expected. He and safety Jeremy Chinn are the only two on the team who have playing all 543 defensive snaps this season. Pass coverage has never been his strength, but he’s mostly held his own and will need to be sharp in that department against the Broncos. Much like his famed offenses in New Orleans a decade and longer ago, Denver coach Sean Payton’s attack is based on short throws around the line of scrimmage and over the middle. That puts extra strain on the linebackers, with White and Co. tasked with wrapping up and preventing chunk gains after the catch.

Big Number: 6

That’s how many wins earned in 27 tries over the past 20 years by teams playing on the road Thursday coming off of an overtime loss, according to the Action Network. Crosby said he was thankful for the chance to play again so quicklyafter a devastating loss, but he appears to be in the minority. A few other players bemoaned the four-day turnaround, though every team is scheduled to do it once per year. Teams in the Raiders’ situation are also 4-23 against the spread in a trend that’s been widely shared in sports betting circles. But the betting market doesn’t seem concerned, as the Broncos opened as high as a 10.5-point favorite with money having since come in on the Raiders. That’s likely a function of the Raiders coming out of last week healthier than Broncos, with Carroll noting that no players were banged up enough to be ruled out before kickoff tonight.

Best bet (4-4 on the season): Jack Bech under 27.5 receiving yards

This is a massive total for a player who didn’t log a single offensive snap Sunday. It’s a result of most projecting the second-round to slide into the role left vacant by trading Meyers, but that’s a big assumption. At best, Bech should split the extra available playing time with Tyler Lockett. The longtime Seahawk had only two practices after the Raiders signed him last week following his release by the Titans, and still got 19 snaps in his first game. Carroll and Kelly have scoffed at questions about playing younger guys to build for the future and said they are only concerned about winning now.