NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday's slate

Gonzaga guard Khalif Battle (99) celebrates after a 3-point basket against Georgia during the second half in the first round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Thursday, March 20, 2025, in Wichita, Kan. Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESS

Gonzaga jumped out to a 27-3 lead over Georgia to start its round of 64 game Thursday in Wichita, Kan. Earlier at the same subregional site, Houston was up 52-24 on SIU-Edwardsville at halftime.

The back-to-back blowouts from the opening whistle might seem rare for the NCAA Tournament, but they’re nothing new for either of these two teams. The Bulldogs and Cougars have stifled opponents at an uncommonly high rate all season.

They’re the top two teams in the nation in point differential aside from East Region No. 1 seed Duke. But now they must reckon with each other at 5:40 p.m. tonight at Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita.

It’s a historic matchup for the round of 32, one of the highest-quality matchups ever this early in the tournament.

Midwest Region No. 1 seed Houston is the top team in the nation by some metrics, including barttorvik.com. Midwest Region No. 8 seed Gonzaga is a consensus top-10 squad, including sixth by kenpom.com.

A string of close losses and the lack of respect that comes with playing in the West Coast Conference dropped the Bulldogs to their lowest NCAA Tournament seed since 2011.

That turns out to be to the detriment of Houston, which now must face another team that looks like a contender on paper abnormally early.

Gonzaga vs. Houston is the clear headliner of today’s third full day of tournament action, but the rest of the schedule is also packed with intrigue.

Read below for picks and analysis on every game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side and picks are listed in rough order of confidence. The record picking every game through the round of 64 stands at 17-19 (7-7 on plays, 6-5 on leans and 4-7 on guesses).

No. 3 seed Texas Tech -7 vs. No. 11 seed Drake. Texas Tech looked sloppy and somewhat unprepared in a 82-72 win over UNC Wilmington as 14.5-point favorites in a game that was closer than the score indicated. That’s totally out of the ordinary for a team coached by Grant McCasland, one of the nation’s most underrated coaches who rose to prominence employing the type of deliberate and methodical attack that Drake uses. Don’t count on it happening again, especially not with the possible return of versatile guard Chance McMillian. Play: Texas Tech -7.

No. 2 seed St. John’s -7 vs. No. 7 seed Arkansas. The Razorbacks looked buoyed by the return of freshman phenom Boogie Fland in a 79-72 win over Kansas as 5-point favorites. Fland only figures to elevate from here as he works his way back to 100% and his chemistry with teammates syncs back in. St. John’s has developed a dangerous habit of starting slow that should come back to bite it at some point. That might be here against an ultra-athletic Arkansas side. Play: Arkansas +7.

No. 4 seed Purdue -6 vs. No. 12 seed McNeese. A torrid defensive start led McNeese to knocking off Clemson 69-67 as 7.5-point underdogs, but the level of difficulty will be cranked up against Purdue. The Boilermakers haven’t gotten enough credit for how lethal their offense has been all year, sitting sixth in the nation in efficiency per kenpom.com. They weren’t even fully on in the first round against High Point and still mostly coasted to a 75-63 win as 8-point favorites. Play: Purdue -6.

No. 3 seed Wisconsin pick’em vs. No. 6 seed BYU. The accustomed Cougars getting to play at elevation in Denver is no small advantage — and a factor in their 80-71 win over VCU as 2.5-point favorites on Thursday. But Wisconsin is more well-rounded and won’t be bothered by the pace-and-space approach BYU prefers. In fact, it’s largely how the Badgers have also played this season.  Lean: Wisconsin pick’em.

No. 1 seed Houston -5.5 vs. No. 8 seed Gonzaga. The Cougars should win this game, but much of their sterling analytical profile was built through blowing out overmatched opponents. Their games have trended much closer against opponents with the firepower to match. Gonzaga scores at too prolific of a clip to be getting nearly more than two possessions on the betting line.  Lean: Gonzaga +5.5.

No. 2 seed Tennessee -4.5 vs. No. 7 seed UCLA. In some ways, these teams looks like mirror images of each other with a reliance of limiting possessions and leaning on defense. Tennessee is just a much better version. UCLA has risen for moments of greatness, but Tennessee has been steadier on a game-by-game basis.  Guess: Tennessee -4.5.

No. 1 seed Auburn -9 vs. No. 9 seed Creighton. The Blue Jays played about as well as they possibly could in torching Louisville 89-75 as 3-point underdogs in the opening game of the round of 64. Don’t pay up to back a team coming off its finest performance. Those are difficult to repeat. Auburn was the top team in the nation for most of the season, and it seems foolish to assume it’s best is now all but gone after a five-game against the spread losing streak.  Guess: Auburn -9.

No. 4 seed Texas A&M -2.5 vs. No. 5 seed Michigan. The Wolverines were able to bully UC San Diego with their size just enough on the boards to escape with a 68-65 victory as 2.5-point favorites. No one bullies Texas A&M in any way. The Aggies are the most physical team in the field, and it’s easy to envision the Wolverines not responding well to the punishment.  Guess: Texas A&M -2.5.