The Baltimore Ravens will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night without quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is set to undergo thumb surgery. Backup Tyler Huntley is also injured, leaving a quarterback room consisting of Joe Fagnano, Kedon Slovis, Austin Reed and newly acquired Jacoby Brissett. The uncertainty has driven heavy early betting action toward Jacksonville, with 83 percent of tickets at DraftKings backing the Jaguars as of Tuesday afternoon.
Despite the quarterback turmoil, the analysis suggests the Ravens should not be completely dismissed. Baltimore still features running back Derrick Henry, who remains physical enough to wear down a Jacksonville defense missing DaVon Hamilton and with Travon Walker dealing with a rib injury. The Ravens also retain receiving weapons Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, and offensive play-caller Declan Doyle is viewed as a strong strategist.
Baltimore's defense ranks 16th in dropback EPA allowed and 22nd in rush EPA allowed this season, but the Jaguars' offense benefits significantly from defensive turnovers that create favorable field position. If the Ravens avoid giveaways, their defense has a better chance to slow down Jacksonville coordinator Liam Coen's unit. Additionally, Trevor Lawrence has historically been less sharp on the road, and winning night games at M&T Bank Stadium remains difficult for visitors.
The recommendation is to back Baltimore at +10 or +10.5, arguing the Ravens should not be getting more than a touchdown at home with plenty still to play for. The suggested player prop is the over on Henry's rushing attempts, noting it has been three games since his last 18-carry performance and a heavy workload represents Baltimore's clearest path to victory.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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