NFL betting: Watch Falcons offense, tight end vs Packers

NFL betting: Watch Falcons offense, tight end vs Packers By Zach Cohen VSiN September 23, 2026 - 11:33 am The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in a Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup. After the Falcons’ loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, the author indicated plans to target Atlanta in teasers and moneyline parlays. Cooper Rush struggled under center, recording four interceptions across two games and posting a QBR of just 5.2 in those appearances. A different look may emerge for Atlanta moving forward. Tua Tagovailoa remains sidelined with an oblique injury, but Michael Penix Jr. is slated to start Thursday’s contest. Penix is returning from a torn ACL, leaving his effectiveness uncertain. Nevertheless, his 2023 line—1,982 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions—clearly represents an upgrade over Rush. Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski should be able to execute the offensive scheme he envisions. If the Falcons’ offense shows even modest competence, the game could become competitive. Although only two weeks into the season, Atlanta ranks among the league’s top ten teams in EPA/Play Allowed at –0.108, and its run defense has been solid. Atlanta has not faced a high‑powered backfield yet, but it surrendered only 58 rushing yards to the Pittsburgh Steelers and 68 rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers. That trend will be worth monitoring in Week 3, as Green Bay will be without Josh Jacobs and has appeared ineffective on the ground. Establishing a rushing attack would further complicate matters for Jordan Love and the passing game. The outlook suggests the Falcons may be able to contain the Packers, even though Green Bay is playing its home opener and could use a strong performance after a slow start to the season. Circa Sports betting data show roughly 80 percent of tickets have been placed on the Packers, yet the line remains firm at Green Bay –6.5, with sharper money favoring Atlanta. Several trends stand out when evaluating this contest. Prior to joining Atlanta, Stefanski coached the Cleveland Browns and posted a 5‑0 straight‑up and 4‑1 against‑the‑spread record in Thursday games. Additionally, the Packers are 10‑5 straight‑up following two‑game road trips under Matt LaFleur, but only 7‑8 against the spread in those situations. They are also 15‑17‑1 straight‑up and 13‑20 against the spread when coming off a non‑conference game. **Player props** - Kyle Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (‑114) & alternate yards 50+ (+212 – 0.25 units) Last season, with Penix at quarterback, Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game and reached at least 50 yards in four of nine appearances. Penix is familiar with Pitts’ abilities; the 6‑foot‑6 tight end is a significant weapon in the passing game. It should not take long for the left‑handed quarterback to begin targeting his tight end. Green Bay allowed 58 yards to Vikings tight ends in Week 1, indicating the position remains a potential vulnerability. Expect Pitts to finish with no fewer than 36 yards, and an alternate wager for him to exceed 50 yards may be worthwhile. **Pick** The author leans strongly toward Falcons +6.5, hoping to secure +7 or possibly purchase +7.5 at a reasonable price. Consequently, the only wagers placed at this time are the Pitts props—taking him to achieve 36 yards and allocating a small stake for him to surpass 50 yards. Should a position on Atlanta be added later, it will appear on the VSiN picks page (linked above) and be included in the Week 3 best bets column. **Bet** Kyle Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (‑114) & Pitts alternate yards 50+ (+212 – 0.25 units).