NFL betting: What’s the best pick for Monday Night Football?

NFL betting: What’s the best pick for Monday Night Football? September 27, 2026 - 2:44 pm VSiN NFL handicappers Steve Makinen, Dave Tuley, and Matt Youmans analyzed the Monday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears.  *VSiN, The Sports Betting Network* **Steve Makinen** The Bears’ situation with Caleb Williams appeared dire at first, but a minor hamstring issue has emerged that should not keep him out for long. The franchise can breathe a sigh of relief, which may inspire them to fight hard as underdogs on Monday night. Although expectations for Chicago were high—perhaps unrealistically—I am confident they will not fold easily against Philadelphia. Even though head coach Ben Johnson’s offense did not look sharp in Sunday’s game with Williams, that could work in our favor because the defense performed well. Historically, NFL teams that allow fewer than 12 points in a game have gone 20‑10 straight up and 22‑8 against the spread (73.3 percent) in their next outing since 2015. Looking at recent trends, Monday Night Football home underdogs are 18‑21 straight up but 21‑17‑1 against the spread (55.3 percent) since September 2021. In the last 37 of those games, the total has gone under 24‑11‑2 (68.6 percent), with an average of just 41.3 points per game. In non‑divisional MNF matchups since 2019, home teams are 27‑23 straight up and 31‑19 against the spread (62 percent). Moreover, when the teams have different records, the side with the better record is 51‑44 straight up but only 38‑55‑2 against the spread (40.9 percent) over the past 95 MNF games. Public betting heavily favors Chicago, with 55 percent of the handle and 75 percent of the bets on the 2‑0 Eagles. This disparity suggests novice wagering. In the last three seasons, when the public backed a team in a high‑profile non‑Sunday game, those groups were 139‑155 ATS (47.3 percent) and 138‑153 ATS (47.4 percent), respectively. Given the Eagles’ unconvincing 2‑0 start and the fact that underdogs are 6‑4 straight up and 8‑2 against the spread in the last ten Eagles‑Bears meetings at Soldier Field, I side with the hosts. **Best bet:** Let’s spell Chicago +4½ to vie good with Philly connected MNF **Dave Tuley** Uncertainty surrounds this MNF contest. The opening line favored the Eagles, but after Philadelphia beat the Titans 24‑20 to reach 2‑0 and Chicago dropped to 1‑1 with a 9‑3 loss to the Vikings—during which Caleb Williams pulled his hamstring—the line moved to Eagles –3½ on Sunday afternoon. Reports about Williams’ injury have been widespread, and backup quarterback Tyson Bagent is dealing with a concussion, leaving Case Keenum to start. This development has pushed the line to 4½, which I view as a “buy signal” to take the points. I trust the Bears’ offense can stay competitive whether Keenum, Bagent, or a healthy Williams takes the snap. If Williams does play, the line would likely drop, making now the optimal moment to back Chicago. **Best bet:** Bears +4½ **Matt Youmans** My top pick had been the Bears +3½ with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Bagent was expected to replace starter Caleb Williams, who was carted off with a serious hamstring injury in Chicago’s 9‑3 loss to the Vikings. Unfortunately, Bagent entered concussion protocol and is doubtful for Monday night. Bears coach Ben Johnson, no longer boasting about having the NFL’s best defense, will likely turn to 38‑year‑old Case Keenum. The positive for Chicago is that Keenum could outperform the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, who threw two interceptions in a lackluster comeback win over Tennessee last week. Philadelphia looks like a fraudulent 2‑0 team ready to be exposed. **Top play:** Bears +4½