The Baltimore Ravens sit last in the AFC North but welcome back quarterback Lamar Jackson after a three-game absence due to a high ankle sprain. His return could spark a struggling offense that produced Derrick Henry's two lowest rushing outputs in recent weeks. The Ravens face a Buffalo Bills defense that ranks last in EPA and 30th in success rate, having allowed more touchdown passes than all but four teams. Jackson is 9-1-1 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer.
The Detroit Lions, favored by 3.5 points, host the league's lone unbeaten team in the Minnesota Vikings. Despite Minnesota's 6-0 record, the Vikings offense ranks 29th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate, while kicker Will Reichard missed two field goals last week. Detroit outgained Green Bay 415-324 in a 20-17 win last week, and quarterback Jared Goff leads the NFL in EPA against the blitz, a key factor against a Vikings defense that blitzes at a 69 percent rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers enter their bye week as the only winless team against the spread through six games, scoring under 24 points in every contest. The offense ranks last in points per game, EPA per play, and success rate, while Justin Herbert grades 34th among 34 qualified quarterbacks per PFF. The week off provided a chance to regroup before facing a schedule that includes a matchup against a Baltimore scheme similar to the one that sacked Buffalo's Josh Allen four times and forced five turnovers in Week 7.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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