Russia ramps up rhetoric but wants to avoid war with Nato, Western officials say

Western officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO despite increasingly hostile rhetoric aimed at the United Kingdom and other allies over their support for Ukraine. Some reports indicated that the visit by CIA Director John Radcliffe to Moscow this week was, in part, intended to warn Russia against a possible attack on a member of the Euro‑Atlantic alliance. Unnamed Western officials described recent Moscow warnings—including statements that UK forces could be targeted in the future or that its weapons factories could be hit—as “nothing new.” They said the remarks align with Russia’s military doctrine of using force against the West. The officials added that the hostile tone also reflects growing domestic pressure on Putin, stemming from slow and costly gains in Ukraine and the impact of Ukrainian long‑range strikes deep inside Russian territory. Putin and his representatives have repeatedly dismissed warnings of Russian plans to attack NATO countries as hysteria. U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to endorse that view, stating this week that “he's not going to onslaught a Nato territory.” Not long before launching the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin had given national assurances that he had no intention of attacking Russia’s neighbour, despite overwhelming U.S. intelligence indicating preparations were underway. Senior Western officials said on Friday that Russia is likely to continue its “hybrid activity”—operations short of direct military action—employing tools such as cyber‑attacks, sabotage and possible assassination attempts. They said the goal is to undermine Western resolve and support for Ukraine, noting that one official warned the strategy risks a miscalculation that could spark a military clash. Russia is suspected of being behind a series of recent drone incidents in several NATO countries. Earlier this month, an explosive‑laden drone reached a runway at Germany’s Leipzig airport, a key logistics hub for transferring military equipment to Ukraine. There is no evidence linking the incident directly to Russia, which has denied any involvement. The Leipzig event followed a string of drone sightings over European airports and military bases that began last year and are also suspected of being Russian in origin, a claim Moscow again rejects. After the Leipzig incident, the head of France’s intelligence services warned that “we indispensable see the anticipation of direct, much convulsive hostile actions connected our nationalist soil.” Still, one Western official said NATO allies should remain calm but not complacent. The British government has already made clear that future Russian threats will not deter its support for Ukraine. Western officials said the Ukraine war has “escalated” this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv intensifying their own long‑range strike campaigns. They said Putin has not altered his maximalist objectives, even as signs of mounting frustration appear domestically. Petrol shortages in Russia are affecting public backing for the war, and officials believe there is rising political pressure on the Russian leader, though they do not view it as a critical threat to his hold on power. Russia continues to make slow gains in the eastern Donbas region while suffering heavy casualties. Officials said Moscow is losing about 6,000 more soldiers each month—either killed or wounded—than it can recruit. At present, there is no indication that the Kremlin will resort to full mobilisation.