What will Jackson bring to Villa with Watkins set for exit?

Sincity Press Staff 2 hours ago 2 min read 2
Sincity Press Brief

BBC Sport examines what new striker Nicolas Jackson will bring to Aston Villa, with Ollie Watkins looking set to join Al-Hilal.

On the surface, Jackson's numbers astatine Bayern Munich past play comparison favourably with those of Watkins astatine Villa.

The Senegal guardant scored 11 goals and provided 3 assists successful 1,320 minutes crossed each competitions, averaging 1.0 extremity involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and 5 assists successful 3,837 minutes, an mean of 0.6 per 90.

Jackson besides generated much attacking opportunities. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots connected people to 1.2.

His expected-goals (xG) fig was besides higher, astatine 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, portion helium averaged 8.5 touches successful the absorption container to Watkins' 5.6.

That fits a signifier which predates his spell successful Germany. Among players with astatine slightest 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, lone Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG fig per 90 than Jackson's 0.55.

Getting into scoring positions has seldom been Jackson's main occupation - it is his quality to decorativeness chances which has attracted scrutiny.

During his 2 Premier League seasons with Chelsea, helium scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG successful 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the pursuing campaign.

Jackson has converted 18 of 61 large chances successful England truthful far, though Watkins has besides missed plentifulness of high-value opportunities (scoring 24 of 73 since joining Villa successful 2020).

Interestingly, past season's numbers suggest the spread betwixt them was negligible. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his large chances, compared with 18.9% and 43.2% respectively for Watkins.

There is, however, an important caveat.

Watkins started 43 matches and played astir 3 times arsenic galore minutes. Jackson started lone 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta says his comparatively limited, substitute-heavy illustration could marque immoderate of his per-90 figures look stronger than they mightiness implicit a afloat season.