Scouring Super Bowl index props for valuable bets, potential big payouts

Less than a decade ago, over/under statistical wagers on players seemed like far and away the most popular proposition bets to make on the Super Bowl.

That’s no longer the case. Forever drawn to the lottery mentality of risking a little to win a lot, bettors now gravitate more than ever before to index props where bigger payouts are available with a pool of options to choose from.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, which typically offers the most Super Bowl props in Las Vegas, posted nearly 40 index-prop markets for this year’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

There are even more assorted categories elsewhere including novelties such as jersey number of the first player to score a touchdown to length of the game’s first field goals.

The Super Bowl prop preview in last year’s Las Vegas Weekly hit the only index play made—49ers running back Christian McCaffrey to score the first touchdown at 4-to-1—so why not go all-in this year?

We’ll stick to five of the more standard indexes, and handicap them here.

FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER

Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is this year’s McCaffrey in that he’s hogging most of the first-touchdown equity at around 4-to-1, coming off an Offensive Player of the Year award-winning season.

But the Chiefs’ rush defense is significantly improved from a year ago, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s whole gameplan will likely revolve around limiting Barkley. Bettors need to try beat Barkley in this market.

Kansas City’s two biggest defensive weaknesses have been against scrambling quarterbacks and No. 1 receivers. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, respectively, are therefore tough matchups.

Even better, the pair’s best-available first-touchdown prices in Las Vegas are both at BetMGM—Hurts is 7-to-1 and Brown at 13-to-1—which offers a “second chance” promotion. That means bettors are refunded their wager if either player scores second instead of first.

It’s always more fun to have exposure on both sides, so let’s take a longer shot with the Chiefs. Running back Kareem Hunt has overshadowed position-mate Isiah Pacheco late this season into the playoffs—especially around the goal line—but that wasn’t the plan coming in.

Pacheco remains more talented and could be healthier for the Super Bowl. He was the second choice behind McCaffrey to score the first touchdown last year at around 5-to-1, and a near 600% increase at Circa Sports is too much. 

Plays: Jalen Hurts at 7-to-1, A.J. Brown at 13-to-1 and Isiah Pacheco at 29-to-1.

LAST TOUCHDOWN SCORER

Backup slot receiver Mecole Hardman scored the decisive, walk-off touchdown for the Chiefs at Super Bowl 58. In this year’s NFC Championship, Eagles third-string running back Will Shipley scored last.

Translation: This is a market where it’s wiser to take long shots. Games can go so many different ways, and there’s far less structure to an offense late than there is early.

Kansas City uses a ton of different receivers, and there’s a decent chance it will be playing from behind and therefore throwing liberally. Backing their longest-shot receivers, therefore, is a shrewd strategy.

DeAndre Hopkins is widely available at 40-to-1 to score the last touchdown, while South Point has JuJu Smith-Schuster at 32-to-1.

On the Eagles’ side, what if they’re up multiple scores again? Maybe they give the rookie Shipley some more snaps in mop-up duty.

Plays: JuJu Smith-Schuster at 32-to-1, DeAndre Hopkins at 40-to-1 and Will Shipley at 100-to-1.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Mahomes has won the Super Bowl MVP trophy in each of the Chiefs’ three previous recent championships, and has to be the look again for those that expect them to three-peat.

Mahomes’ MVP price of +120 (i.e. risking $100 to win $120) being so much larger than Kansas City’s moneyline to win the game outright at -125 (i.e. risking $125 to win $100) is illogical.

But so is the fact that Barkley, at as low as +220, is perceived as much as 12% more likely to take the honors than Hurts. Philadelphia’s quarterback isn’t as highly regarded, but he had one of the best performances in Super Bowl history two years ago.

As mentioned in the first touchdown handicap earlier, Hurts’ matchup against Kansas City is also more advantageous than Barkley’s. And he’s going to touch the ball every play.

A quarterback should arguably never be close to 4-to-1 in this market as Hurts is at Caesars/William Hill, not in a game that sets up as ultra-competitive. 

Play: Jalen Hurts at +380.

FIRST SACK

Kansas City’s starting defensive line consists of Chris Jones, Tershawn Wharton, George Karlaftis and Mike Danna.

The first three are all at least twice as short in odds to notch the first sack. That’s too much separation, even though they’re all more decorated players.

The edge rusher Danna’s biggest assignment figures to be getting to Hurts while the defensive tackles (Jones and Wharton) will be on high-alert to disrupt Barkley by controlling the middle of the line.

Hurts and Mahomes have nearly identical sack rates, and the Eagles have several compelling candidates in this market in their own right. So maybe the best way to back Danna and take advantage of the overwhelming amount of prop options is to split the stake between him to get the first overall sack and the first one for the Chiefs. 

Play: Mike Danna at 20-to-1 for game and 10-to-1 as first Chiefs sack.

TRIPLE CROWN (Most Passing/Rushing/Receiving Yards)

Most bettors’ first reaction might be to go with a correlated outcome here and at least pair a quarterback and receiver from the same team together.

But sports books are keen to that approach and force bettors to pay a premium for combinations like Mahomes/Travis Kelce and Hurts/Brown. It’s better to aim high and hope for a tight game where both teams put up similar statistical production.

Injury seems to be the only thing that could keep Barkley from leading in rushing yards, as he’s -800 to do so and that might not be high enough. But Hurts is far more likely to keep up with Mahomes than the odds indicate—the former outgained the latter in passing by 122 yards two years ago at the Super Bowl.

Chiefs rookie speedster Xavier Worthy meanwhile has clearly overtaken Kelce as the Chiefs’ primary option in the passing game. Hurts, Barkley and Worthy sounds like a weird fit, but that’s why it offers such a large payout and sits as worth a swing.

Play: Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley/Xavier Worthy at 40-to-1.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.