Super Bowl Sweats: Eight props to add to your Chiefs vs. Eagles betting card

Local sports books have stepped up their Super Bowl prop-betting game in one underrated area this year — organization.

It’s never going to be easy to locate one specific prop in a sea of hundreds at every shop, but bookmakers have simplified the process to an extent and made the experience more user-friendly this season. The categories on most mobile betting apps — where the majority of wagers are placed nowadays — are more plentiful and descriptive.

The days of one tab labeled “props” with an ensuing endless scroll are mercifully ending.

Several books have followed Circa Sports’ lead and separated the bets by position, i.e. quarterback props, running back props, wide receiver props, etc.

The Sunday Sweats column is going to do the same. Every week throughout the season, I’ve placed eight (mostly exotic) bets in this space in eight different categories.

The usual setup won’t work for a single game, so I’m switching up the labels and firing on eight props from eight different sports book signifiers. The Sweats is almost surely bound for the first losing season in the five-year history of the column, but can still go out on a high with the following handful of props paired with these earlier plays.

Oh, and don’t forget the Kansas City Chiefs’ future placed a year ago still being alive.

Read below for eight final prop bets on Super Bowl 59. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here.    

General Game Prop: Eagles to win time of possession at -155 (Wynn)

$310 to win $200

Philadelphia led the league in time of possession this season with a rather sizable 21-second advantage over any other team. Kansas City was right about league average. I don’t see any reason why that should change in the Super Bowl. The Eagles are heavily favored to have more rushing attempts, which keeps the scoreboard running and the time of possession in their favor. This prop was available at as low as -130 earlier in the week, but there’s still value all the way to around -175. Controlling the clock is the Eagles’ domain.   

Quarterback Prop: Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards at -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Mahomes has gone over this number in four out of 19 games all year. He simply doesn’t run as much as the betting market seems to imply, not even in the playoffs. Yes, one of his best rushing games was in the AFC Championship two weeks ago where he piled up 43 yards on 11 carries but that matchup was a lot different than this one. Buffalo’s defense wasn’t well-equipped to deal with a scrambling quarterback. Philadelphia’s defense is the opposite. The Eagles might have more combined athletic ability than any other defense in the league and won’t allow the quick-but-not-particularly-fast Mahomes to get around the edge and into the open field.    

Running Back Prop: Saquon Barkley under 27.5 first-quarter rushing yards at -140 (Caesars/William Hill)

$280 to win $200

Many believe the Eagles will come out and immediately try to force their ground game. I couldn’t disagree more. Philadelphia’s high rushing splits on the season are largely a result of how many blowout games they’ve won. The Eagles are much more balanced early in games and, if anything in this matchup, I think they’ll throw more in a neutral game state. That’s because the Chiefs’ rush defense is quietly formidable this season, ranking ninth by the DVOA ratings. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo may sell out to stop Barkley, especially before making mid-game adjustments. I like almost all of Barkley’s unders for the full-game too, but most of those have moved in that direction. This one has stayed the same, only adding minimal juice.  

Wide receiver Prop: Jahan Dotson over 3.5 receiving yards at -105 (Boyd Sports)

$210 to win $200

Hey look, finally it’s an over — the lone over in this column. Just not the one anyone could have been expecting or clamoring for. It fits with my aforementioned conviction in the Eagles throwing more though. Dotson is their fifth option in the passing game at best behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Barkley but he runs a lot more routes and logs a lot more snaps than someone typically in that role. That hasn’t translated to many receptions — he only has one in the postseason, for two yards and a touchdown no less — but maybe it does here. Taking Dotson over 0.5 receptions at -130 was also a consideration, but paying a significantly smaller price to hope his potential one catch isn't around the line of scrimmage was more appealing.     

Defensive Prop: Jalen Carter under 3.5 tackles at -145 (South Point)

$290 to win $200

The second-year disruptor out of Georgia could wind up one of the most impactful players on the field while not sniffing going over this total. That’s the reality of being a defensive tackle in the NFL, especially against a team like the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense is too complex and dynamic to just slam running backs into the middle of the line where Carter can rack up tackles. Long-time Talking Points readers may recall that I tend to bet under tackles on the biggest-\ name and/or trendiest defensive player every year in the Super Bowl. Carter keeps up the tradition this season.

Special Teams Prop: Longest field goal under 47.5 yards at -110 (SuperBook)

$165 to win $150

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker isn’t 100% coming off a knee injury. He’d have been a strong bet to go over this in the past, but Kansas City coach Andy Reid hasn’t even given him the opportunities for long field goals lately. He’s attempted one 50+ yard field goal in the six games since his return — and it missed. Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni, meanwhile, is much more aggressive and not likely to settle for many long field-goal attempts. And when he has, Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has missed them — going 1-for-7 on 50+ yard field goal attempts this season.

Leader Prop: A.J. Brown to have the most receiving yards at +235 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $270

I project the Eagles’ top receiver to have nearly 24 more yards than any other player in the game — a delta that should merit a much chalkier price than this. Kansas City’s biggest defensive weaknesses, per DVOA, have been against No. 1 receivers and receivers on the left side of the field. Brown is the Eagles’ unquestioned No. 1 receiver and lines up the majority of the time on the left side of the field. Brown is more widely available at a 2-to-1 price in this market. That’s closer to fair, but Circa’s commitment to low hold percentages has created value at the top of this index pool.  

Cross-Sport Prop: Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens total goals -0.5 vs. Travis Kelce receptions at +110 (SuperBook)

$200 to win $220

There’s a strong chance that the goalie matchup in this game is Tampa Bay’ Jonas Johnasson vs. Montreal’s Jakub Dobes. That would mean a lot of scoring. Dobes has actually played well, but he’s still a rookie and therefore volatile. The Lightning are high-powered offensively, especially in the rare times when Johansson is in the crease. They know they have to score more in those games, with the NHL’s biggest backup drop-off from starter Andrei Vasilevskiy. Johansson is dealing with a day-to-day injury but, if he can’t go, the Lightning may trot out journeyman Brandon Halverson for a spot start in the second day of back-to-back games. That might be even better for this bet. I would expect at least seven goals in the hockey game as long as Vasilevskiy doesn’t start. Kelce’s likeliest landing spot is only six receptions, and him snagging fewer is likelier than him banking more.  

Sunday Sweats season to date: 87-112, -$2,212.18

Weekend betting column year to date: 19-14, $2,252

Weekend betting column all-time: 837-942, $37,400.09

Previous pending wagers: Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700);  New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800);  Edmonton Oilers to win President's Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800); All NBA Cup futures;  Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900);  South Carolina women's basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); AFC -115 vs. NFC in Super Bowl 59 ($230 to win $200)