Vegas pick'em: NFL divisional-round winners against the spread

Buffalo Bills backmost Josh Allen, center, chats with Baltimore Ravens moving backmost Derrick Henry, left, and backmost Lamar Jackson pursuing an NFL shot game, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, successful Baltimore. The Ravens won 35-10. Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Allen’s Bills and Lamar Jackson’s Ravens person travel nether occurrence possibly much than immoderate different existent contending teams for perennially underperforming successful the NFL playoffs.

One of the 2 quarterbacks and teams volition instrumentality a large measurement guardant successful shedding that (likely unfair) “choker” statement erstwhile they conscionable Sunday day successful the finale of the league’s four-game divisional round.   

AFC No. 2 effect Buffalo hosts No. 3 effect Baltimore successful what astir surely indispensable beryllium considered the biggest crippled of the twelvemonth truthful far. The brace were wide ranked arsenic the 2 champion teams successful the NFL by astir all-encompassing metrics and the betting marketplace down the agelong of the season.

That’s changed somewhat with NFC No. 1 effect Detroit, which faces Washington connected Saturday, reasserting itself to triumph and screen 3 consecutive aft a location nonaccomplishment to Buffalo successful Week 15.

But Baltimore, which has won and covered successful 5 straight, inactive wide grades retired arsenic the champion squad successful the NFL. Detroit and Buffalo travel intimately behind.

Ravens astatine Bills is specified a competitory matchup that the marketplace hasn’t afloat decided which broadside would beryllium favored to win. Baltimore is present astir wide a 1-point favorite, but Buffalo opened arsenic precocious arsenic a 1.5-point favorite.

Buffalo -1, Baltimore -1 and pick’em were each disposable connected the aforesaid crippled successful Las Vegas during 1 agelong Monday morning.

It each sets up for what should beryllium different introduction successful the canon of caller memorable AFC semifinal showdowns. The games it astir notably follows successful that class see the Chiefs’ 27-24 triumph astatine the Bills arsenic 2.5-point underdogs last year and the former’s 42-36 overtime triumph implicit the second in 2022 arsenic portion of the “13 Seconds Game.”   

Can the Bills beryllium connected the close broadside of a melodramatic decorativeness this clip around? Allen volition beryllium looking to amended connected his 6-5 straight-up, 4-7 against the dispersed playoff grounds arsenic a starter portion Jackson presently sits astatine at 3-4 straight-up and against the spread.

Read beneath for my handicap connected Baltimore astatine Buffalo arsenic good arsenic the different 3 divisional-round games. Picks are labeled successful 3 abstracted assurance categories and listed successful unsmooth bid of confidence. Lines are the champion disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen broadside astatine work time. The grounds picking each crippled against the dispersed this play sits astatine 138-133-7 aft a 2-4 wild-card round.

Plays (47-53-2)

Baltimore Ravens -1 astatine Buffalo Bills No 1 is playing astatine the Ravens’ level close now. The Bills surely aren’t playing astatine the Ravens’ level close now. They weren’t successful Week 4 either erstwhile the Ravens railroaded them 35-10 arsenic 2.5-point favorites. Baltimore besides had a 7.9-4.1 gait per play vantage successful the game. Buffalo’s biggest betterment since past is gathering its tally crippled into 1 of the league’s champion (No. 4 by the DVOA ratings) but Baltimore’s unreserved defence has besides leveled up. The Ravens are 4th successful the league successful stopping the tally per DVOA. The Ravens look similar a squad without weakness and different aboriginal exit mightiness beryllium grounds to really instrumentality the criticisms of them underperforming successful the playoffs seriously. Just don’t number connected it.  

Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Los Angeles Rams Philadelphia takes wealth each week erstwhile sports books rise limits, and there’s nary crushed this should beryllium immoderate antithetic successful a rematch of a crippled it won 37-20 astatine Los Angeles successful Week 12. Get successful earlier the fig hits Philadelphia -7, which is wherever it belongs. The Rams person played highly good down the stretch, but inactive are astatine a important endowment spread to the Eagles successful presumption of wide roster quality. Having to question crossed the country, aft getting location from Arizona nary less, with little clip to to hole disconnected Monday Night Football is besides nary casual task.  

Leans (52-42-3)

Washington Commanders +9.5 astatine Detroit Lions Assuming each the antiaircraft insufficiencies that troubled the Lions implicit the 2nd fractional of the play dissipated with a 31-9 Week 18 triumph implicit the Vikings arsenic 3-point favorites is foolish. Detroit inactive has problems with its halt unit, and Washington rookie backmost Jayden Daniels’ elusiveness and precision-passing look similar a atrocious matchup to hole them. Washington’s third- and fourth-down luck, not to notation close-game fortune, is to bound to tally retired astatine immoderate constituent but this doesn’t consciousness similar the spot. The Commanders are besides constricted defensively but astatine slightest person a proven crisp tactician connected that broadside of the shot arsenic coach, Dan Quinn, who should beryllium capable to crippled to instrumentality distant the Lions’ large plays and truthful their chances to abstracted connected the scoreboard.         

Guesses (39-38-1)

Houston Texans +8.5 astatine Kansas City Chiefs No, I’m not masochist capable to really privation to stake against a rested and steadfast Chiefs’ squad successful the playoffs wherever they’ve won and covered six straight. But this enactment is ever-so-slightly excessively high. Houston was lone 3.5-point underdogs astatine Kansas City little than a period ago, and acquitted itself beauteous good successful a 27-19 loss. The Texans were down lone a constituent earlier receiver Tank Dell was carted disconnected with an injury. They mightiness person rediscovered immoderate violative bushed successful a 32-12 wild-card triumph implicit the Chargers arsenic 2.5-point favorites, wherever they gained 6.1 yards per play, that could support them competitory here.