Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the top power-rated team in the NFL and clear favorite to win the Super Bowl by the betting odds.

That just might come as a minor surprise to anyone who’s closely monitored the markets over the past couple weeks.

It’s sure felt like Rams Mania lately in local sportsbooks.

Los Angeles has been the biggest mover on the point spread in back-to-back weeks. The Rams opened as low as a 3-point favorite at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10 before closing as high as a 6.5-point favorite.

They easily covered every number in a 42-26 blowout.

A similar trend played out in Week 9 when the Rams bloated from as short as an 11.5-point favorite over the New Orleans Saints to as tall as a 14.5-point favorite at kickoff. They were ahead of all the spreads by midway through the second quarter and eventually cruised to a 34-10 victory.

The Rams are now the favorites to win the NFC at some sportsbooks — though the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles hold that spot or stand as co-favorites at others. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the Most Valuable Player favorite at as low as +220 (i.e. risking $100 to win $220).

The competition amps up this week, but bettors are still backing the Rams. Los Angeles opened as a 2.5-point favorite hosting NFC West co-leader Seattle but have now jumped up to the key number of -3.

Is the roll just beginning with four straight wins, or can the Seahawks become the first team to derail the endless three-week steam?

Read below for my handicap of the Seahawks at Rams point spread along with all the other games on the Week 11 schedule. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 85-61-3 after a 7-7 record last week.

Plays (31-26-1)

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Chicago Bears The Vikings have been the better team by many advanced metrics, including the DVOA ratings where they’re three spots ahead of the Bears, despite having dealt with a number of injuries including to quarterback J.J. McCarthy. They’re healthier now and should be able to crack Chicago for the second time this season following a 27-24 Week 1 win as 1-point favorites.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Los Angeles Rams Seattle is a tick above Los Angeles by virtually every measure including DVOA, EPA (expected points added) per play and point differential. This line therefore seems unnecessarily shaded by historical precedence. The Rams have more established stars and big-game experience, but those factors tend to be overrated.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers The Falcons invent ways to lose on a weekly basis, but their Keystone Cops routine is keeping their power rating artificially depressed. They’re more of a league-average team overall than their 3-6 straight-up record indicates. The Panthers, for example, have won two more games but have a scoring margin that’s four points worse on the season.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas’ defense sits second worst in the league by both DVOA and EPA per play and multiples worse than any other stop unit outside of Cincinnati’s. Translation: The Cowboys should under no circumstance lay this many points on the road. If there ever was a spot for the Raiders’ offense to get back on track for more than a quarter, this would be it.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 at Cleveland Browns Baltimore has covered both games since the return of quarterback Lamar Jackson and most of their defensive standouts, and that’s without the former having even regained his full mobility off a hamstring strain. Imagine what happens when the two-time MVP regains all his powers. Imagine if that happens against one of the worst teams in the league in Cleveland.

Leans (29-19-1)

San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals Arizona’s defense has been consistently underwhelming while San Francisco’s offense could get a boost with the returns of quarterback Brock Purdy and receiver Ricky Pearsall. Running back Christian McCaffrey is not getting enough credit for one of the best seasons of his career considering he’s second in the NFL with 1,318 scrimmage yards, only 81 behind prohibitive Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jonathan Taylor.

Houston Texans -7 at Tennessee Titans There’s arguably no team that has improved more from the beginning of the season than the Texans, and there’s arguably no team that has stayed as helplessly noncompetitive as the Titans. This number should be a tick above the full touchdown, and will likely get there if positive news regarding injured quarterback C.J. Stroud surfaces this week.

Green Bay Packers -7 at New York Giants The Packers’ underperformance, which includes failing to cover in six of their last seven games, is growing highly irritating but it may also signal a buy-low opportunity if timed properly. Green Bay still has one of the most talented rosters in the league, one that should overwhelm a New York Giants side starting mostly backups after injuries at this point in the season.

New York Jets +13 at New England Patriots New England was worth a bet when this line opened as low as -10 last Sunday, but the market has moved too far. For all of the Jets’ faults, they haven’t gotten blown out too often — losing by only five points per game on average.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Steelers closed as high as a 6-point favorite at Cincinnati in Week 7 before losing 33-31 in a wild game where they put up a 0.8 net-yard per play advantage despite the defeat. How are they laying fewer points at home? Joe Flacco has raised the Bengals’ floor since then, but they still field one of the worst defenses of the last several years in the NFL.

Guesses (25-16-1)

Denver Broncos +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City has played exceptionally off a bye, but the impact could be minimized this time around with Denver having also gotten extra rest after a 10-7 "Thursday Night Football" win over Las Vegas as 9.5-point favorites. The Broncos have beaten the Chiefs two straight at Empower Field at Mile High and have the defense to hold them in check again.

Detroit Lions +2.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The market added a point to this spread off the Eagles’ 10-7 "Monday Night Football" win over the Packers in a game that closed as a pick’em. Is that really merited considering how uninspiring the Eagles’ offense looked for most of the game out of a bye week?

Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders in Madrid Up to a relatively respectable No. 23 rating in the league by DVOA, the Dolphins’ defense is one of the most improved units in the NFL. It should have no problem halting a makeshift Commanders offense weighed down by injuries in every position group.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers’ restructured offense found its stride in a 25-10 Sunday night victory over the Steelers as 3-point favorites, but more evidence is needed that it can maintain against a better defense. The Jaguars’ defense, against all expectation coming into the season, has been better than the aging Steelers’ unit across the board.

Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The spread looks exactly right but, when in doubt, there are few quarterbacks more comfortable to back than Buffalo’s Josh Allen. He’s 63-58-5 against the spread for his career, according to BetMGM’s database, while Tampa Bay counterpart Baker Mayfield is only 56-59-1 despite his recent heroics.