Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

The race for the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed that no one saw coming ramps up in intensity this week.

The runaway co-favorite Denver Broncos and New England Patriots — both +115 (i.e. risking $100 to win $115) to earn the top playoff position at Caesars/William Hill — both finally have challenging games.

Denver hosts Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks, while New England plays at home against Buffalo in a pick’em affair.

The Bills are favored by a point over the Patriots at some shops. If that number sticks, it will be only the second time in nine weeks that New England isn’t favored.

Denver has only been an underdog twice in the same two-month span.

Both teams are 11-2 straight-up in breakout seasons, but weak schedules have unquestionably contributed to their success.

New England has faced a historically weak slate, sitting as the easiest in the league by margin according to the DVOA ratings. Denver has faced the second-easiest schedule by the same metric.

Difficulty goes up over the final quarter of the season, starting this week. It would take a lot for either the Patriots or the Broncos not to get the No. 1 seed regardless considering they’ve built two-game leads over the next set of teams — the Jaguars (7-to-1), Bills (15-to-1) and Chargers (40-to-1).

I’m higher on one of the two contenders than the other. Read below to find out which one as part of the Week 15 picks on every game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 112-87-9 after a 7-7 record last week.

Plays (39-34-4)

Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers In a direct contrast of every other year under coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the metrics paint a better picture of the Chiefs than the perception and win/loss records. Kansas City has too much talent to finish below .500 and too much pedigree to not fight for its slim chances at a playoff spot.

New York Jets +12.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Give the Jets a pass for their 34-10 loss to the Dolphins as 2.5-point underdogs last week; they had no chance with quarterback Tyrod Taylor going down early and undrafted rookie free-agent Brady Cook filling in. As long as Taylor or Justin Fields is healthy enough to start this week, they should be able to avoid getting blown out.    

Cleveland Browns +8 at Chicago Bears With the weather forecast calling for strong winds and potential snow, there might not be enough points for either team to pull away by more than a touchdown. The Bears’ nine wins this season have come by an average of less than six points per game.

Washington Commanders +2 at New York Giants Both NFC East rivals look like mirror images of each other in some ways considering they’re on lengthy losing streaks as long as their injury reports with near identical point differentials (the Giants’ -88 to the Commanders’ -92). It’s typically smart to take the points in that kind of setup with motivation hard to pinpoint in a game between two sides long eliminated from playoff contention.    

Leans (38-26-4)

Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders fell into dead last in DVOA for the first time this season following last week’s noncompetitive (but epic backdoor-covering) 27-20 loss to the Broncos as 7.5-point underdogs. Translation: There’s no better opponent for the Eagles to get right against after losing three in a row straight-up and against the spread.  

Denver Broncos +3 vs. Green Bay Packers Denver’s offense remains mediocre, but it’s gradually over the second half of the year to the point where it should merit some respect. Green Bay deserves to be the favorite, but taking enough action to get out to laying a full field goal — albeit at a -120 price where available — is too much given its own inconsistency.

Detroit Lions +6 at Los Angeles Rams Here’s the second part of lines that have moved too far early in the week. The Rams would have been the pick if the -4 spread some shops posted stuck but inching the never-lacking-for-explosion Lions towards a touchdown changes the equation, especially with the latter coming off extra rest following "Thursday Night Football."     

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow looks much closer to his top form in two games back from turf toe than Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has in six games since returning from a hamstring injury. Cincinnati handled Baltimore on the road Thanksgiving night, 32-14 as 7-point underdogs, and should be getting more of a lift from that performance on the point spread.    

Minnesota Vikings +6 at Dallas Cowboys Both teams are neutral from a net yards per play perspective on the season — the Cowboys are both gaining and giving up 6 yards per play while the Vikings are both gaining and giving up 4.9 yards per play. That indicates the home team should only be laying a field goal at most.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons A rash of late injuries contributed to the Buccaneers losing 24-20 to the Saints last week as 7.5-point favorites, including to star left tackle Tristan Wirfs. He could be among those back for "Thursday Night Football," while the Falcons’ injury situations seem to be more permanent.  

Guesses (35-27-1)

Buffalo Bills pick’em at New England Patriots The Patriots look stronger by conventional statistics, but not any metrics that adjust for schedule strength. Buffalo, for instance, sits 10^th in DVOA to New England’s 14^th. It should be a close game, but a Patriots’ reckoning is due.

Arizona Cardinals +9.5 at Houston Texans This is the largest point spread the Texans have ever given in three seasons under coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud. They weren’t even asked to beat the lowly Titans by this many points in either of two meetings this season. It screams to sell high on the favorite, especially given their obvious offensive limitations.  

New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers New Orleans might have more upside than most realize with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough putting up career-highs in QBR, with a 75, and rushing yards, with 55, in last week’s upset over Tampa Bay. Still, to actually considering betting the Saints, this line would need to get to +3.

San Francisco 49ers -12.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Tennessee has shown progress but its roster quality pales in comparison to a San Francisco team that comes in rested off a bye. The 49ers are favored in each of their next four games and might be a sneaky value consideration for the NFC’s No. 1 seed (at +850, i.e. risking $100 to win $850).        

Seattle Seahawks -13.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts The Colts are cursed. Not only have injuries derailed their season to the point that they have to turn to 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers off the street, but they have to do it against the worst possible opponent. The Seahawks have created separation as the best team in the league by DVOA and EPA per play in the last two weeks.  

Miami Dolphins +3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers have lacked the explosion to pull away from many opponents this season, leaving laying the extra half-point hook a nonstarter. This is so close that the pick would flip if the line shortened to -3.