Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread

The Pittsburgh Steelers were 40-to-1 to wind up as the highest-scoring team of the NFL’s Week 1 slate. Their game at the New York Jets was similarly priced at 50-to-1 to be the highest-scoring contest of the opening weekend.

Both of those plays did wind up losers, but just barely. It took the clear early frontrunner for Game of the Year, the Buffalo Bills’ comeback 41-40 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, to surpass the Steelers’ 34-32 victory over the Jets.

Week 1 annually brings its share of surprises, and none were bigger this year than the lowest-totaled game on the board — the over/under closed as low as 37.5 points — becoming a shootout.

Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers and New York’s Justin Fields looked more than comfortable taking the controls with their new teams as they both piloted highly efficient offenses. The puzzle now is figuring out whether that level of success is sustainable going forward.

Handicapping Week 2 is annually all about interpreting one data point against a full offseason's worth of preparation. The Jets and Steelers made that task trickier as it pertains to their scoring outbursts.

Read below for my handicap of their pair of Week 2 games along with the rest on the schedule. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Week 1 was largely a wash with a 7-7-1 overall record.

Plays (4-4)

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Beating the Chiefs for the first time in seven tries, albeit in impressive fashion by outgunning the longtime AFC champions, doesn’t erase all the Chargers’ problems coming into the season. Namely, Los Angeles has a relatively shaky offensive line after losing left tackle Rashawn Slater and a diminished talent level on defense. The Raiders’ personnel isn’t as far behind the Chargers’ as the betting market implies.

Atlanta Falcons +5 at Minnesota Vikings The Falcons' second-year quarterback Michael Penix was quietly outstanding in a 23-20 loss to the Buccaneers as 1-point underdog with more than 300 combined rushing and passing yards with two touchdowns. Atlanta had a positive postgame win expectancy based on the statistics but seems to be getting dinged by the betting market for the loss. It’s hard to back the Falcons given their propensity for collapses, but they’re undervalued.

Buffalo Bills -6.5 at New York Jets I strongly lean toward the Jets’ offensive leap ending up short-lived. There’s too much evidence of Justin Fields being a bottom-tier passer to expect new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to completely repair the fifth-year veteran. Even if the Jets maintain the level for another week, there’s a case that the Bills should still be laying at least a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars The spread sat as high as Cincinnati -6 coming into the season, and an adjustment of a field goal is far too much off of one performance. The Bengals’ offense did look poor in averaging less than 3 yards per play in a fortunate 17-16 win over the Browns as 5-point favorites, and it might not be in sync for another week. A better way to bet on that, however, would be taking under 50 points here while hoping the Bengals’ defensive resurgence under new coordinator Al Golden is real.

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers I rated the Panthers as the worst team in the NFL coming into the season, and their separation from the rest of the pack only grew with a noncompetitive 26-10 loss to the Jaguars as 4.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals meanwhile have a well-rounded roster for the first time in years and deserve sleeper status.

Detroit Lions -5 vs. Chicago Bears Detroit hasn’t been this small of a favorite over Chicago at home since 2021 when it was sitting at 0-10. The Lions deserve a downgrade after their coordinator and offensive line departures contributed to a 27-13 beatdown at the Packers as 1.5-point underdogs, but not this much of one.

Leans (2-2-1)

Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Draft overall No. 1 pick Cam Ward couldn’t have gotten a tougher first assignment in facing the league’s top projected defense on the road at elevation in Denver. He didn’t look very good, completing only 12 of 28 passes for 112 yards, but he also limited mistakes and flashed brief glimpses of confidence. This should be a spot where he has a chance to show his potential against a flawed Rams’ defense.

Baltimore Ravens -10.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Cleveland’s defense was a revelation in Week 1’s near-miss against Cincinnati, but it could have been a one-off against an opponent it annually haunts and starts the year slowly. No one should be able to slow the Ravens except themselves, which was on display in the aforementioned Sunday night collapse for the ages where they were as high as -3000 (i.e. risking $3,000 to win $100) to win on live lines in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 at Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs’ unprecedented magic was bound to take a dip some season, and this looks like the year with injuries and drama swelling to keep alive the traditional struggle of the Super Bowl runner-up in the following campaign. The Eagles got an extra day to prepare for a team they crushed 40-22 as 1-point underdogs seven months ago in the Super Bowl, while the Chiefs had to travel back home from Brazil.

Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. New England Patriots Have the Dolphins fully quit on coach Mike McDaniel as some reports are indicating? They were dreadful in a 33-8 loss to the Colts as 1-point underdogs, but more evidence is needed to jump to the conclusion that they’re done. Miami’s roster, if it’s engaged, is still a step above New England’s.

New York Giants +6 at Dallas Cowboys New York might have the best defensive line in the league with rookie No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter immediately looking Pro Bowl caliber. The unit should bug Dallas, at least more than a Philadelphia group that was toothless in Week 1 after bleeding talent in the offseason and then losing Jalen Carter before the first play from scrimmage due to a spitting incident.

Guesses (1-1-1)

Washington Commanders +3.5 at Green Bay Packers The number might be about right, though maybe still a bit high, if both teams were at full strength. But the Packers’ injury list is mounting and stretching to every part of their roster. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels meanwhile might be somehow underrated coming off his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign as he looks to solidify his standing as a top-five quarterback in the NFL.

Houston Texans -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay was able to navigate a litany of offensive injuries in Week 1, most notably up front where All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is out, but all the absences are going to cost it at some point. That could be this week against what should be one of the NFL’s best pass rushes led by Will Anderson.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Rodgers looked so surprisingly comfortable in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s scheme that the Steelers’ offensive uptick feels like it could stick. But I’d rather bank on that happening by playing over 39.5 points given how bad Pittsburgh’s aging defense looked in surrendering 6.4 yards per play to the Jets.

San Francisco 49ers -4.5 at New Orleans Saints It’s tough to get involved in this game without clarity on whether 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will join his slew of sidelined teammates with shoulder and toe injuries. But even if Purdy can’t go, coach Kyle Shanahan is a proven quarterback whisperer and could bring the best out of a new backup he’s long been linked to in Mac Jones.

Denver Broncos -2 vs. Indianapolis Colts The number looks exactly right, but there could be a reasonable expectation of regression from both teams after outlier Week 1 performances. Denver’s should be positive after they committed four giveaways against Tennessee. Indianapolis’ would be negative after Daniel Jones inexplicably looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the league.