Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

The bar for worst beat of the season has been set, and something massive would have to occur to clear it.

It’s difficult to foresee anything overtaking the sight of a 336-pound defensive tackle barreling down the field at more than 18.5 miles per hour with no time left on the clock to eclipse a point spread. That’s what Jordan Davis did in Week 3 for the Philadelphia Eagles, which defeated the Los Angeles Rams 33-26 as 3.5-point favorites despite having not covered for one previous second of the 60-minute game.

The Rams led by as much as 26-7 before blowing their lead, but then lined up for a game-winning 44-yard field goal with three seconds left on the clock. Davis, a former first-round pick out of Georgia whom the Eagles took at No. 13 overall in the draft held in Las Vegas three years ago, got a hand on Joshua Karty’s kick to all but secure victory for the Eagles.

But that wasn’t enough. Instead of falling on the ball, Davis had to scoop it to cash in on the ultrarare chance to score a touchdown as a professional defensive lineman.

Bettors were going berserk, and mostly not in a good way. The Rams were one of the most popularly bet sides in terms of tickets written at several sportsbooks that reported their exposure publicly, and it looked like a sure winner until it wasn’t.

Davis’ dash helped the pick’em column, as I made Eagles -3.5 a lean. I needed the lucky victory too as Week 3 was the column’s worst of the year so far at 7-8-1 picking every game against the spread.

I’ll look to get back on the winning side for the third time in four weeks below by handicapping every point spread. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 24-21-3.

Plays (10-8-1)

Atlanta Falcons +2 vs. Washington Commanders This might be a fair line if both teams were at full strength, but Washington has cluster injuries at wide receiver, offensive line and defensive backfield. Not to mention quarterback Jayden Daniels is still at less than 100% even if he plays through a knee sprain. Atlanta was sloppy in last week’s bizarre 30-0 loss to Carolina as 5-point favorites, but has too strong of a roster to be a home underdog to a team as beaten up as Washington.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at New York Giants Don’t buy into the Jaxson Dart hype. Rookie quarterbacks rarely produce right away. Even the last two Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, Daniels and C.J. Stroud, got off to slow starts before going on to historic debut seasons. A time will come to fade the Chargers, which remain more flawed than their 3-0 straight-up record indicates, but it’s not now.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Two of the three teams the Colts have pasted to start the season, the Titans and Dolphins, are winless with rumblings of their coaches getting fired. Indianapolis won the third game, against the Denver Broncos, on a second chance via leverage call. So, no, the gaudy offensive numbers and renaissance of Daniel “Indiana” Jones don’t feel very likely to continue.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers San Francisco’s injury situation couldn’t possibly be any more dire as it's missing key players at every position. Jacksonville remains underrated, especially now that it looks like the Jaguars have quietly turned it around defensively. The Jaguars sit fourth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play on defense.

Detroit Lions -8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The Browns’ defense deserves to be deemed the best in the league through three weeks considering it’s only giving up 3.8 yards per play, second in the NFL behind a Packers side they just beat. But it’s difficult to carry over that level of dominance on a weekly basis especially going indoors for the first time this season at Ford Field where the Lions have been historically efficient for the last three seasons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Tampa Bay could be getting back wide receiver Chris Godwin and, most importantly, left tackle Tristan Wirfs this week. Don’t let the 3-0 straight-up record and blocked field goal distract from the fact that the Eagles have been outgained by a jarring 0.9 net yards per play on the season and look diminished from last year’s Super Bowl team.

Leans (7-7-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings in Dublin, Ireland New Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz didn’t exactly have to prove he was still competent in last week’s 48-10 win where the Bengals handed his team the game with five turnovers. Skepticism is still warranted, especially traveling overseas against a Steelers' squad that has defied the numbers and found ways to win at a higher clip than expectation for more than a decade. This feels like more of a pick’em.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. New York Jets Both AFC East rivals are struggling at 0-3 straight-up, but the Dolphins are healthier and have three extra days of rest after playing on Thursday Night Football. This year’s Jets don’t look like much of an upgrade from the past several underwhelming versions, and they haven’t been less than a three-point underdog in Miami since 2019.

Denver Broncos -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Broncos’ offense is difficult to trust laying points with quarterback Bo Nix appearing to be in a severe sophomore slump, but the alternative is Cincinnati counterpart Jake Browning, who leads the league with five interceptions on only 59 attempts. Denver’s home field advantage at elevation has traditionally been more pronounced at the beginning of the season, which should be enough for this spread to sit a half-point higher.

Las Vegas Raiders pick’em vs. Chicago Bears Chicago’s defense ranks dead-last in the NFL in giving up 6.7 yards per play. The unit has particularly struggled in rush defense and generating consistent pressure. If there’s ever a time for the Raiders’ floundering offensive line to figure out their problems, it should be here.

Dallas Cowboys +7 vs. Green Bay Packers The loss of CeeDee Lamb to a high ankle sprain hurts, but not as much as in past years with the presence of trade-acquired George Pickens to fill in for him as the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver. The 1.5-point move on to a key number that occurred when Lamb was ruled out feels a bit much. Dallas would even be a worth a play if the spread got to +7.5.

Guesses (7-6-1)

Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Here’s where Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon can solidify his status as a defensive mastermind and bolster his early case as a Coach of the Year candidate. The market has moved aggressively in Seattle’s favor after Arizona opened as high as a 2.5-point favorite because of the home team’s extensive list of defensive injuries, but Gannon just might be sharp enough to scheme around them.

Houston Texans -7 vs. Tennessee Titans Here’s the weekly reminder that Tennessee’s Brian Callahan is the one of the worst coaches in NFL history and now sits at 3-17 both straight-up and against the spread. He can’t be backed at any reasonable price and a spread of a touchdown or less falls into that category here. But it’s close given how many issues Houston is dealing with amid an 0-3 straight-up and against the spread start. The pick would probably flip if the market goes back to Houston -7.5.

New Orleans Saints +17 at Buffalo Bills The Saints had been competitive in the first two weeks before crashing in a 44-13 humiliation at the Seahawks last week as a 7.5-point underdog. Typically in the NFL, performances that poor don’t strike in back-to-back weeks. Talent-wise, it’s arguable that no team should be favored by 17 points over another this early in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens Is it trite to point out Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ 12-3-1 against the spread record as an underdog and his 28-12-1 mark when also adding games where his teams are favored by less than three points? Maybe, but he’s also had too many years of success to chalk it all up as coincidence. Baltimore -2.5, which is the price at all but a few sportsbooks, is the fairer line.

New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Sure, the Panthers starched the Falcons on the scoreboard last week, but they still don’t deserve an upgrade to their power rating for the win. Atlanta gave the game away with a series of turnovers and Carolina could barely muster 4 yards per play on offense. The Patriots conversely were clearly better than the Steelers but committed five giveaways to lose 21-14 as 1.5-point underdogs in a game where they dominated the box score.