Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson rushed his team to a big upset of the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6, and himself to the top of some NFL statistical rankings and betting odds boards.

The third-year professional, former first-round pick gained 238 yards on 25 touches in the Falcons’ 24-14 victory over the Bills as closing 3.5-point underdogs. He now leads the NFL with 822 scrimmage yards — 42 more than 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, who has gotten the ball a staggering 47 more times than Robinson.

Robinson came into the season as the second choice in the future odds to lead the league in scrimmage yards, behind only Eagles running back Saquon Barkley who finished first last year. That futures pool has not reposted anywhere, but it would be safe to assume Robinson would now be the favorite.

He’s made another big move elsewhere — in the Offensive Player of the Year odds. Robinson was as high as 18-to-1 to win the award in the offseason but now sits as the +440 (i.e. risking $100 to win $440) second choice behind Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s current rushing leader.

A pair of receivers, the Los Angeles Rams’ Puka Nacua and the Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njiba, round out the top portion of the board at +450 and +480, respectively. Nacua had been the favorite for the past three weeks but left the Rams' 17-3 win over the Ravens as 7-point favorites last week with an ankle injury.

The Las Vegas native is considered “day-to-day,” however, and could return for the Rams’ game against the Jaguars Sunday in London. That potentially makes for a buy-low spot in the Player of the Year market with the Rams’ pass-happy offense going up against a Jaguars’ team that has struggled to defend opposing No. 1 receivers.

The value might be marginal at the moment, but I’d prefer to back Nacua and Robinson over Taylor and Smith-Njiba given the former pair’s higher projected volume going forward.

Read below for picks on every Week 7 game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 54-36-3 after an 11-4 showing last week.

Plays (19-15-1)

Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Houston Texans Houston is coming off a much-needed bye week, but Seattle should get just as much of a boost with injured cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen expected to return to the lineup. Most advanced analytic-based power ratings grade the Seahawks as a top-five team in the NFL but the betting market continues to stubbornly hold them down much lower.

New York Jets +2 vs. Carolina Panthers The Denver Broncos’ defense can be historically dominant when it’s locked in like it was throughout a 13-11 win over the Jets as 7-point favorites last week in London. New York’s offense hasn’t been nearly that poor the rest of the season and gets an easy landing spot back stateside against a Carolina stop unit that lacks top-end talent.

Tennessee Titans +7 vs. New England Patriots Tennessee players didn’t exactly bemoan this week’s firing of head coach Brian Callahan. The long-trusted, often-reliable interim coach bump could be coming under veteran replacement Mike McCoy. This line was New England -1.5 before the season began and, as well as New England has played, that’s a substantial jump.

Las Vegas Raiders +12 at Kansas City Chiefs Give me all the bottom-feeding teams this week as it seems like the market is shorting them too aggressively. Las Vegas’ defense has played average to well in all but one game this season — a blowout loss at Indianapolis — and carries in a recent history of disrupting Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. The Raiders have the offensive firepower to score with the Chiefs too if quarterback Geno Smith’s interception rate can just regress slightly toward his career average.

Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay has seemingly benefitted from every break this season, as evidenced on a macro level by their 5-1 straight-up record with only a +14 point differential. The Buccaneers’ actual quality has been closer to a .500 team. They won’t even be able to attack the Lions’ cluster injury in the secondary because of their own mounting absences at wide receiver after previous Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Emeka Egbuka was lost with a hamstring injury.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Cleveland Browns Cleveland rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel hasn’t been terrible, but he rarely throws the ball past the line of scrimmage. Miami is mistake-prone, but at least its offense has maintained more dimensions — too many to be priced as if it’s a worse team than Cleveland overall.

Denver Broncos -7 vs. New York Giants Denver edge rusher Nik Bonitto, the NFL’s leader with eight sacks and Defensive Player of the Year favorite at some sportsbooks, should cause the Giants’ mediocre-at-best offensive line and green rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart major problems. The plus matchup combined with the Giants traveling into elevation should be enough to push this spread to the other side of -7.

Leans (18-11-1)

Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings All the concern about the Eagles’ offense after dropping two straight games feels a bit overblown considering it’s been an up-and-down unit for years under coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Buy low on the unit, though a better way to do so while also backing Minnesota offensive-wiz coach Kevin O’Connell might be by taking the over 43 points in this game.

New Orleans Saints +5.5 at Chicago Bears Chicago’s defense is giving up an NFL-worst 6.5 yards per play, and New Orleans’ offense has been punchier than expected. The Bears looked much improved in a 25-24 "Monday Night Football" win over the Commanders as 5.5-point underdogs, but that was with more than two weeks to prepare off a bye while this game will be a short turnaround.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams in London Maybe the Jaguars catch a break and don’t have to face Nacua at all, in which case this line should shrink a half-point. Either way, the Rams continue to be priced like an iron-clad Super Bowl contender when in reality they look more on the second tier. There’s not this big of a difference between these two teams.

Washington Commanders -2.5 at Dallas Cowboys Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott leads in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play this season and isn’t getting enough credit for his stratospheric level of play. It’s too bad there’s not enough around him, especially on defense, to make the Cowboys real contenders. The Commanders are a lot more well-rounded.

Guesses (17-10-1)

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Green Bay has failed to cover in three straight, which consists of every time this season where it’s been favored by this many points or more. The Packers also went 1-2 against the spread as at least a 6.5-point favorites last year. Their increasingly conservative offensive approach has become a deterrent to laying this many points.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The Bengals’ offense looked marginally improved under new quarterback Joe Flacco in a 27-18 loss to the Packers as 14.5-point favorites last week. Flacco should conceivably improve a little with more time on his new team, and that might be all it takes here against a Steelers’ defense that was already playing below expectation and is now dealing with a few new injuries.

San Francisco 49ers -2 vs. Atlanta Falcons 49ers linebacker Fred Warner is an all-time great, but his loss for the season to a broken ankle might be getting overstated by the betting market considering this number dropped from San Francisco -3.5 last week. San Francisco could be getting other key starters back to help offset the loss of Warner.

Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Monitor the injury report throughout the week for this game but there’s a good chance the Chargers get a few of their handful of absent starters from the last couple weeks back. If they get back the likes of tackle Joe Alt and edge rusher Khalil Mack, they may control the line of scrimmage — something most opponents haven’t been able to accomplish against the Colts this season.