Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 8 winners against the spread

Last week’s set of games felt like it brought about a separation Sunday with most of the league’s best teams flexing to prove their worthiness and almost of all the NFL’s worst teams getting flattened in the process.

The Week 7 pick’em stated, “give me all the bottom-feeding teams,” so as you can imagine, the way the games played out wasn’t a welcome sight in this space. Transparency should be valued above all when it comes to handicapping and I gladly took a victory lap after a couple strong weeks early in the season.

Now it’s time for the boomerang. Week 7 was a disaster.

It was one of the worst performances in the 12-year history of the pick’em if isolating for only the Sunday morning and afternoon slate where the record totaled 2-9. Luckily, I went four-for-four on the Week 7 primetime games to save some face.

My Week 8 card is looking particularly heavy on favorites, which feels like an overreaction but I’m sure is not. It’s just a coincidence.

Swings are a certainty when betting on sports, especially markets as liquid as the NFL, and the only way to maintain sanity is to embrace them — and work as hard as possible to head back in the right direction.

That’s goal for Week  8 with all the picks listed below. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 60-45-1 after last week.

Plays (21-20-1)

Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears Baltimore still has the best collection of starters in the NFL when it’s full healthy. The Ravens aren’t there yet, but they’re coming off of a bye and will be a lot closer this week. Buy the ultra-rare discount on a team led by Lamar Jackson, who should return from a hamstring injury, while it’s available.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. New York Giants Philadelphia closed as high as an 8-point favorite at New York two weeks ago. Yes, the Eagles lost 34-17 but their roster remains much more complete than the one belonging to their divisional rival. The line trimming this much, to a key number, in this short of time is highly unusual especially for a reigning Super Bowl-winning team.

New England Patriots -7 vs. Cleveland Browns Cleveland goes from facing the third-worst run defense in the league last week — the Dolphins are surrendering 5.2 yards per rush attempt after last week’s 31-6 loss to the Browns — to the third-best — the Patriots are allowing only 3.4 yards per rush attempt. Browns running back Quinshon Judkins is far ahead of quarterback teammate Dillon Gabriel, who doesn’t look capable of leading an upset against one of the NFL’s better teams yet.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at New Orleans Saints The Saints have dropped to the No. 31 ranked team in the NFL, ahead of only the Tennessee Titans, by the DVOA rankings. They showed some life at the start of the year, but have ended up every bit as bad as the sense that they were the worst team coming into the season. The Buccaneers could reasonably be closer to a touchdown favorite.   

Buffalo Bills -7 at Carolina Panthers Buy low on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. It feels strange to even be able to write those words together with a player who was nearing odds-on favorite status to win a second straight NFL Most Valuable Player award three weeks ago. But it’s a testament to how quickly perception changes in the NFL — in this case because the Bills lost two straight games outright — and that’s usually what brings about opportunities for profit.

Leans (19-14-1)

New York Jets +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals The spread on this game a week ago was Cincinnati -3.5. The Bengals looked terrific with Joe Flacco settling in for a 33-31 win over the Steelers as 5.5-point underdogs, but one game isn’t enough to double an expected winning margin the next week. The Jets added a new chapter to their long book of futility with a 13-6 loss to the Panthers as 1-point underdogs, but they continue to grade out better than a winless team by advanced metrics.     

Denver Broncos -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas has been more exciting than Denver through six weeks but it hasn’t necessarily been better considering the former ranks No. 12 by expected points added (EPA) per play to the former’s No. 9. With the Broncos’ elevated home-field advantage, this line implies the teams are about even and I’m not yet convinced.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Green Bay sits with a monstrous +1.2 net yards per play on the season; Pittsburgh is barely positive at +0.1 net yards per play. That’s just one basic example of how underlying statistics paint these teams as more divergent in terms of quality than conventional wisdom may.    

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings The number feels about right, but the Chargers have more upside with a preponderance of injuries and potential returning players. Los Angeles showed it could be contenders with its three-game winning streak to start the season, and that’s a level Minnesota hasn’t hit all year. It’s a level the Vikings won’t hit as long as they kept trotting out mistake-prone Carson Wentz at quarterback.

Washington Commanders +12.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Marcus Mariota has fallen into a couple recent lowlights, namely in the Commanders’ 44-22 loss to the Cowboys as 2.5-point underdogs last week, but has done well filling in for Jayden Daniels over a larger sample. He’s at least been reliable enough to not merit a seven-point line move like occurred here after Daniels got hurt against Dallas.   

Guesses (20-11-1)

San Francisco 49ers +1.5 at Houston Texans Data would say this line is fair, if not a smidge too short on the home team, but San Francisco has consistently looked better prepared and sharper overall than Houston. The Texans’ injury situation now could be just as dire as the 49ers’ with top receiver Nico Collins joining No. 2 Christian Kirk on the sidelines during practice this week.

Tennessee Titans +14 at Indianapolis Colts It would be wise to stop selling on the Colts long-term as this team has played as well as anyone, sitting No. 3 in the league by DVOA, and deserves to be considered a contender. But in the meantime, it’s too much to ask to lay two touchdowns with the injury-riddled state of their defense.

Atlanta Falcons -7.5 vs. Miami Dolphins There can be no real statistical justification for laying this many points with an inconsistent and underwhelming Falcons’ offense, but the Dolphins’ situation feels untenable. As if Miami’s litany of injuries weren’t enough, there are serious questions about motivation with coach Mike McDaniel under fire and players turning on each other.