Vegas pick'em: Super Bowl pick and perspective against the spread

The best bet made in Talking Points throughout the entire 2024-2025 NFL season was the first one.

Before stadium workers had even cleared the confetti out of Allegiant Stadium after the Kansas City Chiefs’ overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58, I fired on them to three-peat. Circa Sports opened its Super Bowl 59 futures market with Kansas City at 9-to-1, a more— than-generous-enough price for me to spring into action hours after the conclusion of the 2023-2024 season.

Fast-forward 51 weeks later, and the Chiefs are as low as -125 (i.e. risking $125 to win $100) to once again lift the Lombardi Trophy.

Having that much equity in the team currently in the midst of building a dynasty should be a cause for celebration, if not at least a reason to take a sigh of a relief. The Chiefs winning another Super Bowl could be the saving grace in what’s otherwise been one of the worst NFL seasons in the 11-year history since the launch of Talking Points’ pick’em column.  

After splitting on conference championship weekend, I’m 140-136-8 (48-54-3 on plays, 53-42-3 on leans and 39-39-2 on guesses) handicapping every NFL game this year.

Nothing is going to make me feel better about that horrendous performance on plays, but cashing a big ticket on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl could be a nice consolation.

And yet, I’m not feeling all that confident.

Read below where I’ll explain with the final against the spread pick of the year. The line is the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Check back Saturday for one final Super Bowl betting column with a final collection of proposition wagers to make.

Super Bowl 59 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, over/under: 49.

What an odd time for the Chiefs to be favored in a Super Bowl for the first time since their loss to the Buccaneers four years ago.   

They were underdogs to the 49ers in 2024 and these similar-looking Eagles in 2023, but there was a strong statistical case to be made that they were actually the better team in both matchups.

No one can make that argument this year. The Eagles have been significantly more efficient by any measure.

Philadelphia is No. 2 in the league in expected points added per play — behind only the Baltimore Ravens — and Kansas City is No. 5. The Eagles are No. 4 in weighted DVOA; the Chiefs are No. 8.

Philadelphia’s scoring margin is +10.5 points per game. Kansas City’s scoring margin is +3.7 points per game.

Yes, these same metrics also painted the 49ers as the superior team last year,d but the gap wasn’t nearly as wide. And it could also be explained away by arguing that the Chiefs had been stronger recently as they flew through the playoffs while the 49ers had a pair of hiccups.

But this year, not only have the Eagles been the better team as the year on a whole but they’ve also been the better team down the stretch.

Philadelphia put up 55 points in an NFC Championship Game blowout victory over Washington. Kansas City has only scored half that many points on two occasions all season — a 30-27 Week 12 win over Carolina and a 29-19 Christmas Day victory against Pittsburgh.

The Eagles’ first two playoff games were closer — a 22-10 win over the Packers as 6-point favorites and a 28-22 victory over the Rams as 7.6-point favorites — but they won the box scores easily and suffocated both opponents during large stretches of the game.

The Chiefs have hardly suffocated anyone all season. Their analytical expected record including the playoffs is closer to 11-8 straight-up than their actual 17-2 mark.

Numbers like that are often mocked and accused of not being able to quantify the magic inherent in Chiefs coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

There’s real merit in that argument.

Like their dynastic predecessor New England Patriots, which racked up seven Super Bowls in the previous two decades, the Chiefs outperform their metrics every year.

They’ve done it consistently enough to force some manual adjustment. Adjusting them all the way to the favorite against a more consistent and menacing Philadelphia team is going too far though.  

The Eagles' only three losses this year were a one-point, late-game fluke to Atlanta in Week 2, a no-show Week 4 blowout to Tampa Bay without their top two receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) and a Week 16 collapse to Washington without quarterback Jalen Hurts.

They’ve proven they can play with the Chiefs, too. Philadelphia led Kansas City for the majority of Super Bowl 57 two years ago in Glendale, Ariz.

The Eagles then beat the Chiefs in Kansas City the next season.

On paper, this year’s Philadelphia team is a lot better. The Eagles’ offense isn’t quite as dynamic as two years ago, but it’s more balanced with NFL rushing leader and likely Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley leading the way.

And they’ve made huge defensive leaps. First-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is the architect of the keep-everything-in-front-of-you approach to facing Mahomes that the rest of the NFL has copied.

And Fangio has arguably never led as talented of a unit as this one. The development of young stars like defensive tackle Jalen Carter and the rookie cornerback duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean gives the Eagles a clear athletic advantage.

The Chiefs might be the better team in the trenches — though it’s negligible — but the Eagles’ edge is pronounced on the edges of the field.

In a testament to how quickly the NFL moves — the average player career lasts about three years — Philadelphia is the younger and twitchier team this time around. It was the opposite at Super Bowl 57 when the Chiefs were one of the youngest teams in the league.   

It doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to win, but the Eagles have the more impressive roster. They’re the better team.

They should be the favorite and might even close there as limits continue to rise and the biggest bettors pour their money into the market.

So where does that leave someone like me holding exposure on Kansas City? It leads me to an area I typically prefer to avoid — arbitrage.

If a bettor has to hedge, at least the Super Bowl is an ideal place to do it with the preponderance of options. I’ve made use of them, particularly every book posting tons of alternative lines, by betting Philadelphia +3.5 at -162 (i.e. risking $162 to win $100) at STN Sports.

Even if Kansas City -1 is the correct price, the fair odds mathematically in knocking it to Philadelphia +3.5 should be closer to -175. So I’ve bet the chalky Philadelphia +3.5 -162 and will be rooting for a 1- to 3-point Kansas City victory.

Neither a Chiefs nor an Eagles victory will therefore be devastating — though the former remains more lucrative — and a certain outcome would be momentous.

In my heart, I hope the Chiefs escape again and deliver a big score to end an underwhelming season on a high note. In my head, I think the Eagles present too tall of a task this time around.

Play: Eagles +1.5.